According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the price of lithium carbonate has been continuously declining recently. As of March 11th, the domestic price of battery grade lithium carbonate is 76000 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3.55% from 7880 yuan/ton at the beginning of the year and a decrease of 31.78% from 111400 yuan/ton in the same period last year; Domestic industrial grade lithium carbonate is priced at 73900 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3.27% from 76400 yuan/ton at the beginning of the year and a decrease of 27.83% from 102400 yuan/ton in the same period last year.

Supply side: Increased domestic production coupled with rising imports

Domestically speaking, Ningde Times’ Jiangxi lithium mica mine resumed production in February, leading to a 25% increase in domestic production volume compared to the previous month in March.

In terms of imports, although Chile sent 12000 tons of lithium carbonate to China in February, there was a slight decrease compared to the previous month. But in addition to lithium carbonate, Chile sent 10300 tons of lithium sulfate to China in February, an increase of 391% compared to the previous month. In addition, Ganfeng Lithium’s 20000 ton lithium chloride production capacity in the first phase of the Mariana Lithium Salt Lake project in Argentina was officially put into operation in February, which will also drive China’s lithium carbonate imports.

Demand side: ternary materials weaken, lithium iron phosphate may become a major trend

From the perspective of material factories, due to the increasing concentration of the industry, top material factories are approaching full production or even seeking outsourcing processing, while small material factories have significantly reduced orders and experienced production stoppages.

From the perspective of lithium iron phosphate, the production capacity of power batteries reached 96GWh in March, an increase of 18% compared to the previous month. Among them, lithium iron phosphate power batteries performed particularly well, with a production capacity of 65GWh, an increase of 22% compared to the previous month, accounting for about 69%.

The lithium carbonate data analyst from Shengyi Society believes that, under the premise that the large pattern of lithium carbonate surplus has not been reversed, the weak supply and demand will further suppress prices. It is expected that lithium carbonate will continue to weaken in the short term, and specific market information and changes in supply and demand still need to be monitored.

Product Name: Titanium Dioxide

The latest price on March 11th is 15300 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.39% compared to the previous trading day.

Analysis points: On March 11th, the domestic titanium dioxide market price rose. Upstream sulfuric acid prices have increased, titanium concentrate is consolidating at a high level, factory costs are under pressure, and titanium dioxide market quotations are approaching high-end prices. At present, downstream demand is average, with rigid procurement being the main focus, and there is a strong wait-and-see atmosphere for new order prices.

Prediction: It is expected that the price of titanium dioxide will remain strong and upward in the short term, and the actual transaction price is negotiable.

In early March, the domestic ABS market showed weak consolidation, with most spot prices of various grades experiencing a narrow decline. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of March 10th, the average price of ABS sample products was 11162.50 yuan/ton, with a price level increase or decrease of -0.54% compared to the beginning of the month.

Fundamental analysis

Supply level: Since early March, the operating rate of the domestic ABS industry has been narrowly increased, and the load has fluctuated by around 2% to 74% in the first ten days. The average weekly production has increased to over 130000 tons, and the inventory level of aggregation enterprises is 180000 tons, slightly lower than the end of February, but the overall supply of goods remains abundant. The improvement of orders in petrochemical plants is limited, and traders are lagging behind in terms of goods delivery, resulting in a high incidence of discounted orders. Overall, the supply side’s support for ABS spot prices within ten days is average.

Cost factor: In early March, the upstream three materials of ABS showed weak trends, which did not provide good support for the cost side of ABS. The price of acrylonitrile has fallen to touch the theoretical production cost line, and the market downturn has slowed down recently. The high load of 89% in the industry has put pressure on the supply side, and the company’s profit situation is showing losses. Combined with the follow-up of new production capacity in the future, the rebound of acrylonitrile market still lacks momentum.

The butadiene market continued to fluctuate and show a weak trend within the next ten days. The overall market supply is relatively loose, and holders are unable to raise prices. The downstream synthetic rubber market trend is still weak, and under the weak supply-demand pattern, the butadiene market continued to delay its weak operation trend this week.

Styrene showed a significant decline in early March. The international oil prices in the remote upstream have fallen, and the support on the raw material side is poor. On the supply side, it is constrained by high port inventory, while downstream demand is hindered by increased production resistance. Currently, styrene continues to decline due to cost and demand constraints, and it is expected to consolidate and operate after a short-term market downturn.

On the demand side: On the terminal side, we will continue the previous flat pattern, and after the downstream buying stagnation in early March. The load increase of the terminal factory in the inquiry is not significant, and the purchasing logic tends to be weak in demand and bottom fishing. The atmosphere of on-site purchasing is sluggish, and the flow of goods is slow. Overall, the demand side has weak support for the ABS market.

Future forecast

The domestic ABS market fluctuated and fell in early March. The three upstream materials all fell, providing poor comprehensive support for the cost side of ABS. The load of ABS polymerization plant has slightly increased, and inventory has been slightly digested but still remains at a high level. The demand side expansion is still slow, and downstream enterprises have insufficient consumption. Business analysts believe that the ABS market has strong supply and weak demand, and is under pressure from a decrease in cost value. In the short term, the market will continue to be dominated by weak consolidation.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the aniline market has been consolidating and operating recently, with a downward trend in price focus. The spot price of aniline in East China is 9100-9200 yuan/ton, with an acceptance price of 9250 yuan/ton. It is reported that international oil prices have weakened due to concerns about the impact of US tariffs on global growth and oil demand. The supply and demand support for pure benzene is weak, and the US Gulf price continues to fall below the price of pure benzene in South Korea, leading to bearish market sentiment. The production of aniline on the supply side is stable, but downstream demand has entered the market. Due to the decline in pure benzene prices and insufficient market information, some factories have slightly lowered their prices. The cost side is bearish, and there is insufficient follow-up from the demand side. It is expected that the aniline market will operate weakly in the short term.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the domestic adipic acid market experienced a weak decline in early March. On March 1st, the average market price of adipic acid was 8366 yuan/ton. On March 6th, the average market price of adipic acid in China was 8233 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.59%.

Loose supply leads to weak decline in domestic adipic acid market

In early March, the market for pure benzene and cyclohexanone raw materials for adipic acid continued to weaken, with sluggish demand in the terminal industry. The supply of adipic acid in the market was loose, and the prices of adipic acid manufacturers and traders continued to decline. The market transaction volume was average, and the sales were poor. The average market price of adipic acid has dropped to 7750-8100 yuan/ton, with an overall decrease of 100-200 yuan/ton.

An analyst from Shengyi Society believes that in mid March, due to poor demand in the terminal industry and a weak decline in raw material prices, the adipic acid market will continue to decline in the future.