Weak demand, phthalic anhydride market fluctuated and fell in April

The phthalic anhydride market fluctuated and fell in April
According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of April 9th, the price of phthalic anhydride in neighboring countries was 7383.33 yuan/ton, a fluctuating decrease of 0.67% compared to the price of 7433.33 yuan/ton on April 1st. The equipment operating load of phthalic anhydride manufacturers remains low and stable, coupled with weak downstream demand, the support for phthalic anhydride price increases has weakened, and phthalic anhydride prices have fluctuated and fallen. At the end of March, phthalic anhydride manufacturers underwent maintenance, resulting in a decrease in phthalic anhydride supply. In April, phthalic anhydride production slowly resumed, and phthalic anhydride supply resumed. In April, phthalic anhydride prices fluctuated and fell.
Supply side: resumption of work and increased supply
After the Qingming Festival holiday, with the gradual restoration of pre maintenance equipment, the capacity utilization rate of the domestic phthalic anhydride industry has improved, and the capacity utilization rate of the naphthalene phthalic anhydride industry has increased to about 60% after the holiday; The utilization rate of production capacity in the domestic phthalic anhydride industry may show low fluctuations, with little overall change. The overall supply of phthalic anhydride in the market has increased.
Demand side: DOP market is fluctuating and falling
According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of April 9th, the DOP price was 8192.50 yuan/ton, a fluctuating decrease of 1.16% from the April 1st DOP price of 8288.75 yuan/ton. The buying atmosphere in the plasticizer market has sharply declined, and the inventory of plasticizers has increased. With difficulties in inventory management and declining profits, DOP plants have started to reduce production, resulting in a decrease in demand for phthalic anhydride and increased pressure on phthalic anhydride prices.
Future forecast
According to the data analyst of Shengyi Society’s phthalic anhydride products, in terms of supply, phthalic anhydride manufacturers are slowly resuming production, and the supply of phthalic anhydride is increasing; In terms of demand, the expected operating load of DOP manufacturers has decreased, and the demand for phthalic anhydride has weakened, increasing the downward pressure on phthalic anhydride. In the future, as supply increases and demand weakens, it is expected that the price of phthalic anhydride will fluctuate and fall.

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The market has a strong wait-and-see atmosphere, and the acrylic acid market is consolidating

The market price of acrylic acid has fluctuated within a small range recently, showing a slight upward trend. This may be due to the intensification of the game between supply and demand, the slowdown of downstream procurement pace, and the contraction of market trading volume. As of April 9th, the benchmark price of acrylic acid in Shengyi Society was 7833.33 yuan/ton, an increase of 3.52% compared to the beginning of this month (7566.67 yuan/ton).
Weak supply-demand balance:
Supply side: The operating rate of domestic acrylic acid factories remains stable, and some enterprises adjust their loads due to cost pressures, but there is no significant oversupply overall.
Demand side: Downstream industries such as coatings, adhesives, and water treatment have weak demand, dragged down by slow macroeconomic recovery and weak demand in some end industries (such as real estate and infrastructure). Enterprises mainly purchase on demand, lacking the motivation to stockpile goods.
Price trend of propylene: As the core raw material of acrylic acid, propylene prices have been fluctuating downward recently. As of April 9th, the benchmark price of propylene in Shengyi Society was 6723.25 yuan/ton, a decrease of -0.33% compared to the beginning of this month (6745.75 yuan/ton).
The impact on acrylic acid: The cost of propylene accounts for 60% -70% of the total cost of acrylic acid, and the decline in propylene prices directly weakens the cost support of acrylic acid, theoretically opening up downward space for acrylic acid prices. However, currently the acrylic acid market is experiencing a weak balance between supply and demand, and prices have not kept pace with the decline, resulting in a slight recovery in corporate profit margins.
In summary, the current acrylic acid market is in a bi-directional squeezing stage of “cost weakening+flat demand”, with short-term or sustained price fluctuations. It is necessary to closely monitor the trend of raw material propylene and the marginal changes in downstream demand to prevent periodic market fluctuations caused by supply-demand imbalance.

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Supply pressure remains, adipic acid market declines

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, in early April, the domestic adipic acid market fell and weakened. On April 1st, the average price of adipic acid in the domestic market was 7766 yuan/ton. On April 8th, the average price of adipic acid in the domestic market was 7700 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.86% in price.
Supply pressure remains weak and the adipic acid market is declining
Since April, the market for pure benzene and cyclohexanone raw materials for adipic acid has weakened, resulting in poor demand in the terminal industry. The supply pressure in the adipic acid market has doubled, and shipping prices have remained weak and stable. Market transactions have been flat, and sales have been average. The average market price of adipic acid has fallen to 7600-7700 yuan/ton, with an overall decrease of about 50 yuan/ton.
An analyst from Shengyi Society believes that in mid April, the raw material market may see an improvement, supply pressure will ease, and the domestic adipic acid market may experience a rebound.

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The butadiene market first rose and then fell

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, from March 31 to April 7, the domestic butadiene market price decreased from 11000 yuan/ton to 10833.33 yuan/ton, with a price reduction of 1.52% during the period. This cycle, the domestic butadiene market showed a trend of first rising and then falling within the week, with an overall downward trend. As the holiday approaches, some downstream stocks will replenish their positions after falling. At the beginning of the week, market transactions were relatively concentrated. With some auction sources selling at a premium, the market trend has significantly shifted upwards. Although the supply side prices remained firm, the high end offers and transactions in the later part of the week were somewhat deadlocked. At the same time, the news of the US tariffs affected the futures market, causing downstream buyers to be cautious. After short-term fluctuations in the market, prices significantly declined on Thursday afternoon. As of April 7th, the delivery price in Shandong region is 10900 yuan/ton.
Cost wise: International crude oil futures plummeted on April 4th. The settlement price of the main contract for WTI crude oil futures in the United States was $61.99 per barrel, a decrease of $4.96 or 7.4%. The settlement price of the main Brent crude oil futures contract was $65.58 per barrel, a decrease of $4.56 or 6.5%. Affected by US tariff policies, oil prices have plummeted for two consecutive trading days, with WTI experiencing a cumulative drop of nearly $10. Investors are concerned about the risk of economic recession caused by the escalation of global trade conflicts. According to crude oil analysts from Shengyi Society, based on the subsequent impact of current US tariff policies, crude oil may enter a new cycle in the long term. The supply-demand balance may be disrupted and enter the process of rebalancing again. In the short term, given that countries are attempting to negotiate lower tariffs or impose retaliatory tariffs, tariffs may change and oil prices may fluctuate significantly in the short term.
Supply side: The listed price of butadiene for various sales companies of Sinopec is 11200 yuan/ton, with an increase of 100 yuan/ton this week.
Demand side: The styrene butadiene rubber market has been operating weakly during this cycle. According to the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, as of April 3rd, the styrene butadiene rubber market in the northwest region has slightly declined by around 100 yuan/ton. Currently, downstream inquiries are cautious, and market transactions are flat. The mainstream price of Jihua 1502 is 13900 yuan/ton.
Market forecast: This weekend, crude oil prices will significantly decline, and the spot market will be dragged down and prices will follow suit. There are many negative factors on the cost side. In terms of supply, there have been few maintenance visits to butadiene enterprises recently, and the subsequent arrival situation at the port is good. The market expects a good supply of butadiene, but the supply side is relatively empty. The downstream synthetic rubber futures market on the demand side has weakened, and the overall operating rate has decreased, resulting in overall demand leaning towards rigid demand. Overall, the supply and demand performance of the butadiene market is bearish, and it is expected to be mainly stable, moderate, and weak in the short term.

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The demand for aniline is generally stable, and the price of aniline is temporarily stable

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the aniline market has remained low recently, and the market atmosphere is quiet. The spot price of aniline in East China is 8000-8100 yuan/ton, and the acceptance price is 8080 yuan/ton. It is reported that the raw material pure benzene has rebounded and stopped falling, and cost support is gradually increasing. The downstream demand for aniline remains rigid, while the demand side support is average. If the price of pure benzene continues to rise in the future, it is expected that the possibility of aniline pushing up will increase.

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