The total import volume of MIBK in the first quarter of 2024 was 4320 tons, a year-on-year increase of -68% and a month on month decrease of -39%. In the first quarter, domestic production increased and MIBK imports showed a downward trend.

Firstly, the import volume will increase significantly in 2023. In December 2022, due to the long-term shutdown of large domestic facilities, the losses were severe, and the supply side severely contracted. In the fourth quarter, the market price rose from 10400 yuan/ton to 21000 yuan/ton in January 2023, an increase of over 100%. This also led to a large influx of imported goods, and domestic trading companies were importing MIBK to make up for the market gap. In February and March 2023, foreign MIBK concentrated in ports, resulting in a sharp increase in import volume in the first quarter of 2023. However, at the same time, with the increase in spot supply and weak demand, the domestic MIBK market price negotiations have mostly shown a downward trend.

Secondly, overseas device maintenance will be carried out in the first quarter of 2024. The main sources of imported MIBK from China come from Japan and South Korea, but from late March to early April 2024, both the Mitsui MIBK plant in Japan and the Jinhu MIBK plant in South Korea were shut down for maintenance, which also affected the import volume of MIBK from China in the first quarter of 2024. According to customs data, in the first quarter of 2024, China’s MIBK imports mainly came from South Africa, Mexico, and Japan, totaling 4000 tons, accounting for 95% of the total imports in the first quarter.

Business Society predicts that imported resources are expected to increase in the second quarter. From a supply perspective, the MIBK facilities in Mitsui, Japan and Jinhu, South Korea restarted in the second quarter. Currently, the MIBK market prices in China are at a high level in the second quarter, and there is room for arbitrage. Therefore, the import volume is expected to increase. From the perspective of market prices, the supply in the domestic market has increased, but downstream industries in the demand side have turned into a off-season in summer. Downstream demand is worrying in June, and Business Society expects a downward trend in market prices. As market demand contracts and prices decline, import sources will also decrease. Therefore, the total import volume in the second quarter is expected to increase, but the import volume in the third quarter may decline again.

According to the commodity market analysis system of Business Society, the formaldehyde market in Shandong has recently declined. At the beginning of the week, the average price of formaldehyde in Shandong was 1240.00 yuan/ton, and on the weekend, the average price of formaldehyde in Shandong was 1237.50 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.20%. The current price has increased by 5.77% year-on-year.

formaldehyde

Recently, the price of formaldehyde in the Shandong region has fluctuated and fallen. From the above chart, it can be seen that the formaldehyde market has mainly fluctuated slightly in the past two months. This week, the market has slightly increased and then rebounded. As of May 15th, the mainstream market price in Shandong region is 1200-1300 yuan/ton. This week, the price of raw material methanol fluctuated and consolidated, with weak cost support. The operating rate of mainstream downstream plate factories is expected to decline, and the support for formaldehyde production is weak. Some formaldehyde production enterprises have accumulated inventory expectations, and the market is mainly slightly downward.

Upstream methanol situation: The domestic methanol market has seen a narrow decline. In terms of supply, global coal supply is stable, domestic imports have increased, and the increase in domestic demand is not enough to support coal prices to continue operating at high levels; In terms of demand, the temperature has risen, the civilian electricity load has fallen, and the overall pressure on power plant inventory is relatively small. Currently, terminals mainly rely on long-term cooperative replenishment, and replenish warehouses according to demand. The demand for coal in the market is relatively flat, and the overall sentiment is more wait-and-see. It is expected that the short-term thermal coal market will maintain a volatile and weak operation. The cost side of methanol is influenced by bearish factors. The supply of goods continues to be abundant, while downstream demand is relatively average in a supply-demand game state. Business Society Methanol Analysts predict that in the short term, the domestic methanol market prices will be mainly weak and consolidating.

In recent times, the price of raw material methanol has been mainly fluctuating, and many on-site formaldehyde units have maintained their initial load operation, with continuous supply growth. Downstream panel factories have lowered their operating rates as the temperature warms up. Therefore, formaldehyde analysts from the Chemical Branch of Shengyishe predict that the price of formaldehyde in Shandong will mainly decline in the near future.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of May 14th, the average price of isobutanol for enterprises was 8125.00 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.56% compared to last Tuesday’s price and 2.20% compared to the beginning of the month.

Recently, the market price of isobutanol has steadily increased. From a cost perspective, after the holiday, the center of gravity of raw material propylene prices has shifted upwards, and the main reason for the fluctuation and increase of raw material isobutyraldehyde is that the cost support is still acceptable. From the perspective of supply and demand, the spot supply in the market is tight, supporting the mentality of enterprises to raise prices, and downstream buying is mainly based on demand. In addition, the related product n-butanol experienced an upward trend after the holiday, which boosted the isobutanol market and led to strong quotes from the industry. On May 14th, the mainstream ex factory price of isobutanol in the Shandong market was set at 8100 yuan/ton.

Cost side: Upstream propylene, supported by news and demand after the holiday, saw a slight increase in propylene prices. Upstream isobutyraldehyde, according to the commodity market analysis system of Business Society, the reference price of isobutyraldehyde on May 13th was 7825.00, an increase of 2.29% compared to May 1st (7650.00).

Related product n-butanol: According to the commodity market analysis system of Business Society, on May 13th, the reference price of n-butanol (industrial grade) was 8000.00, an increase of 2.13% compared to May 1st (7833.33). After the holiday, the overall n-butanol market in Shandong region showed an upward trend.

Future Market Forecast:

The isobutanol analyst from Business Society believes that current cost support still exists, and the supply side is showing a tight performance, which provides significant support to the market. In addition, the rising operation of related products, n-butanol, gives the market confidence in boosting prices, and market transactions are orderly. The demand side is slightly cautious about high priced raw materials, and the impact may be limited. It is expected that in the short term, the isobutanol market may continue to operate strongly, and more attention should be paid to market news guidance.

Last week, the price of # 441 metallic silicon remained stable. As of May 12th, the average price in the domestic metallic silicon market was 13660 yuan/ton, which remained unchanged compared to the previous week. Last week, the industrial silicon market remained stable, and in terms of the spot market, prices for various brands remained strong after the holiday. Although buyers still engaged in price pressure, there is little room for silicon factories to make concessions at the current price. At present, there are relatively few downstream procurement replenishment operations, so there was a release of post holiday replenishment orders last week. However, the sentiment of transaction pressure is still strong; The futures market is showing a trend of rising and falling. Although the improvement in the macro environment had a positive impact on the industrial silicon market at the beginning of last week, the driving factors for the downstream polycrystalline silicon market continue to be insufficient, and the market performance is very weak. Therefore, industrial silicon remained stable last week

The price of 441 # silicon in various regions on the 12th is as follows:

The price range of # 441 metallic silicon in the Huangpu Port area is 13500~13600 yuan/ton, with an average price of 13550 yuan/ton; The price range of # 441 metallic silicon in Tianjin Port area is 13500~13600 yuan/ton, with an average of 13550 yuan/ton; The price range of # 441 metallic silicon in Kunming area is 13600-13700 yuan/ton, with an average price of 13650 yuan/ton; The price range of # 441 metallic silicon in Sichuan region is 13400~13500 yuan/ton, with an average of 13450 yuan/ton; The price range of Shanghai # 441 metallic silicon is 14000-14200 yuan/ton, with an average price of 14100 yuan/ton.

The Factors Influencing the Price of Silicon Metal

In terms of supply:

As of May 11th, the number of silicon metal furnaces in China has reached 324, with an overall start-up rate of 43.4%, an increase of 20 compared to last week. Last week, the number of industrial silicon furnaces opened increased, with more manufacturers in the northwest resuming production. At the same time, manufacturers in Sichuan have also resumed production. As the flood season approaches, the number of furnaces opened in the southwest will further increase, and the overall supply situation will increase.

In terms of inventory:

Last week, the inventory of industrial silicon slightly increased. As of May 10th, the national social inventory of industrial silicon reached a total of 370000 tons, an increase of 6000 tons compared to before the holiday. Among them, the social ordinary warehouse is 107000 tons, an increase of 1000 tons compared to before the holiday, and the social delivery warehouse is 263000 tons (including unregistered warehouse receipts), an increase of 5000 tons compared to before the holiday/ P>

In terms of demand:

Last week, the price of polycrystalline silicon continued to weaken. Against the backdrop of high inventory in silicon material enterprises, there is a strong bearish atmosphere in the market. The upstream supply pressure in the photovoltaic industry chain is gradually increasing, and both upstream silicon materials and silicon wafer enterprises are in a high inventory stage. Currently, prices have shown irrational declines, but there is still a risk of oversupply in the later stage, especially with the relatively sluggish demand for terminal installation. The game between upstream and downstream may become more severe in the later stage, and it is expected that upstream silicon materials and silicon wafers may continue to decline.

Last week, the price of organic silicon rebounded and the price of aluminum alloy stabilized. The domestic organic silicon DMC market price reference is around 13550 yuan/ton. At present, the overall atmosphere in the organic silicon DMC field is mild. After the market gradually recovers, there is a certain wait-and-see sentiment in the downstream. When the market price dropped to a low point in the early stage, some organic silicon DMC factories had relatively good destocking effects. The current overall supply pressure in the market has slightly eased, and the probability of consolidation and stabilization in the future is high. The current quotation for aluminum alloy ADC12 is around 20000 yuan/ton. Aluminum alloy enterprises have been operating steadily recently, but downstream demand remains resilient, with some recovery in the export end.

Future Market Forecast

In summary, on the supply side, silicon factories in the northwest and southwest regions resumed production last week. Although the cost of industrial silicon has slightly decreased and the price of silicon coal has decreased, the profits of silicon factories have been restored. However, the current market trend is weakening, so the overall operating rate has improved but the increment is small, and the overall supply situation has slightly increased; On the demand side, the prices of polycrystalline silicon and organic silicon have declined, but there are signs of bottoming out and stabilizing. Demand has weakened, but the impact on demand has narrowed after the release of bearish sentiment. The increase in social inventory results in a higher total inventory level. The supply and demand side is bearish for silicon prices due to increased supply and decreased demand. The market is under pressure and the futures market is weakening. However, there is a favorable situation on the cost side and support is temporarily stable. It is expected that industrial silicon will bottom out and stabilize this week.

Stable operation of ethylene oxide prices in May 2024

In May 2024, the price of ethylene oxide remained stable and the price gradient increased within the year. According to data from Business Society, as of May 10th, the average market price of ethylene oxide in China was 7000 yuan/ton, an increase of 9.38% compared to the market average price of 6400 yuan/ton at the beginning of the year.

Loose prices of some downstream products

At present, the industrial chain is in a state of poor cost oriented transmission. After the upstream raw material ethylene price rose, it remained at a relatively high level, but some downstream product prices slightly fell. Coupled with the main downstream polycarboxylate water reducing agent monomer prices remaining stable, the demand for ethylene oxide is generally supported.

Future market forecast

Under the support of cost, the price of ethylene oxide may continue to remain strong, but in the later stage, with the resumption of production of early maintenance equipment, there is an expected increase in supply side pressure, with significant upward pressure. Coupled with the unsatisfactory transmission of downstream product prices, short-term fluctuations and stability maintenance are the main reasons.