price trend

According to the bulk ranking data of Shengyi Society, the domestic PC market fell at a low level at the end of March, and the spot prices of most brands were lowered. As of March 25th, the mixed benchmark price of Business Society PC is around 15700 yuan/ton, with a price increase or decrease of -2.28% compared to early March.

cause analysis

On the supply side: As we enter the end of March, the load of domestic PC aggregation enterprises remains stable with small fluctuations. The current industry average operating level is basically the same as before, with an overall load of over 85%. The weekly average production remains at a super high level of nearly 70000 tons, and the on-site supply is very abundant. The mid stream inventory position is relatively high, and manufacturers’ shipments and auctions are weak. Factory prices continue to decrease, and the market supply side is not providing good support for PC prices.

In terms of raw materials, it can be seen from the above chart that bisphenol A has continued to decline recently. Upstream acetone and phenol continue their mid month trend, with one rise and one fall, and industry confidence in cost values has not improved. Although there are expectations of a contraction in the supply of bisphenol A in the future, the demand for bisphenol A is not strong, and there is still some downward pressure on prices. Overall, the support of raw materials for PC costs is relatively weak.

On the demand side: The PC consumption pattern has been weak for a long time, and the overall market at the end of March will continue to maintain a light pre holiday level. The downstream factories have a lukewarm load, and the end enterprises are lagging behind in stocking up. The purchasing logic has remained at a weak level of rigid demand for a long time, and the supply-demand contradiction pattern continues to be profound. Merchants tend to adopt a wait-and-see attitude towards low position positions, and buyers are resistant to high priced goods. This has increased the pressure for businesses to sell. The circulation of goods in the market is slow, and the overall trading situation continues to be light. The demand side has poor support for PC spot prices.

Future forecast

At the end of March, the domestic PC market fell at a low level. The upstream bisphenol A market is currently continuing to decline, providing poor support for the PC cost side. The load of domestic PC aggregation plants is fluctuating at a high level, and the supply is loose. High industry inventory and high supply pressure. The current downstream demand follow-up is still slow and there has been no improvement. The market has a shortage of new orders and poor trading conditions. It is recommended to focus on the impact of the peak maintenance season on the market in the future, and it is expected that the PC market will continue to rise in the short term.

The price of ethylene glycol fell in March

The price of ethylene glycol will decrease in March 2025. According to data from Shengyi Society, as of March 21st, the average price of domestic oil to ethylene glycol was 4536.67 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3.10% from the average price of 4681.67 yuan/ton on March 1st.

On March 21, 2025, the basis of the spot contract for ethylene glycol at the port remained stable with an upward trend, and the contract transaction price range for this week was 4425-4440 yuan/ton. In the morning session of March, the contract basis price increased from+29 to+32, and in the afternoon, the price rose to+30 to+34.

In terms of external ethylene glycol, as of March 21, the landed price of ethylene glycol in China is 519-526 US dollars/ton, and the landed price of ethylene glycol in Southeast Asia is 540 US dollars/ton.

Port inventory fluctuated horizontally in March

Port inventory fluctuated horizontally in March. On March 20, 2025, the total inventory of ethylene glycol in the main port of East China was 682300 tons, a decrease of 20500 tons from the total inventory of 702800 tons on March 17; The total inventory on February 27th was 711900 tons, a decrease of 29600 tons.

The downward shift of the cost dominant price center is expected to lead to a bottoming out and rebound in the market

The cost side dominates the price trend in the early stage, coupled with market expectations of insufficient terminal consumption, which may drag down the demand of the polyester industry. The overall market sentiment is weak, and the focus of ethylene glycol prices has shifted downwards.

In terms of domestic supply, the maintenance of domestic ethylene glycol plants will gradually be implemented. On March 19th, Yankuang in Inner Mongolia will shut down for maintenance; In early April, a 1.8 million ton/year synthetic gas to ethylene glycol plant in Shaanxi will be shut down and rotated. The initial profits were good, but some companies delayed their spring inspection plans. With the compression of profits caused by the decline in prices, there is a possibility of a concentrated outbreak of maintenance volume in the future.

Recently, international crude oil prices have stopped falling and rebounded, with cost drag slowing down. Coupled with the significant decline in ethylene glycol, the downward space has narrowed, and the probability of bottoming out and rebounding has increased.

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, the magnesium ingot market in Shaanxi Province slightly declined this week (3.3-3.14), with an average market price of 15800 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week and 15766 yuan/ton at the end of the week, a decrease of 0.21%.

Supply and demand side

Due to the long-term phenomenon of cost inversion, multiple magnesium factories continue to face the dilemma of losses. As the weather gradually warms up after entering spring, magnesium factories have chosen to conduct equipment maintenance in advance and have taken measures to reduce or shut down production in order to alleviate operational pressure. At the same time, due to poor production and sales in the early stage, the inventory of magnesium factories is generally low, which has led to a significant reduction in magnesium supply in the market. However, despite the tight market supply, magnesium prices have not yet reached the cost line of magnesium plants. Therefore, magnesium plants have a strong willingness to raise prices and hope to improve their current loss situation by stabilizing or increasing magnesium prices.

demand side

The downstream demand is currently maintaining an overall stable trend. Downstream believes that magnesium prices are already low in the short term, so they are entering the market to replenish and actively reserve. In the process of gradually rising magnesium prices, active transactions have emerged in various price ranges, which not only reflects the market’s resilience in demand for magnesium, but also provides strong support for magnesium prices.

comprehensive analysis

In summary, magnesium prices have recently stopped falling and stabilized. Partial magnesium factories have stopped production for maintenance, reversing the situation of oversupply in the market. It is expected that magnesium prices will maintain a strong and stable operating trend in the coming period. With the further adjustment of market supply and demand, magnesium prices are expected to gradually rise.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, on March 20th, the reference price of cyclohexanone in the domestic market in Shandong was 8300 yuan/ton. Compared with March 16th, the reference price of cyclohexanone in the domestic market was 8375 yuan/ton, with a price reduction of 75 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.90%.

From the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, it can be seen that this week, the cyclohexanone market in Shandong Province, China, has shown a downward trend. During the week, trading in cyclohexanone was light, and the focus of market negotiations shifted downwards, with an adjustment range of around 50-100 yuan/ton. As of March 14th, the reference market price for cyclohexanone in Shandong region is around 8250-8400 yuan/ton.

Market influencing factors

In terms of supply and demand: During this week, the overall demand order follow-up in the downstream chemical fiber market of cyclohexanone was relatively slow, and the demand was initially weak. Some cyclohexanone factories have certain pressure on the supply side, and the transmission between supply and demand is loose, and the game is gradually emerging.

In terms of cost: The weak market for pure benzene on the raw material side has loosened the cost support for cyclohexanone. As of March 19th, the reference price for pure benzene was 6859.67 yuan/ton, a decrease of 8.76% compared to March 1st (7518 yuan/ton).

Market analysis in the future

At present, the overall trading atmosphere in the cyclohexanone market in Shandong is relatively weak, and downstream users are cautious in their stocking and procurement operations. The cyclohexanone data analyst from Shengyi Society predicts that in the short term, the domestic cyclohexanone market will mainly be weak and organized, and specific changes in supply and demand information need to be closely monitored.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the PP market fluctuated and consolidated in mid March, with most brand products experiencing narrow price adjustments. As of March 19th, the mainstream offer price for wire drawing by domestic producers and traders is around 7541.67 yuan/ton, which has increased or decreased by 0.33% compared to the price level at the beginning of March.

price trend

In terms of raw materials:

The trend of the upstream crude oil market in the far end has declined. On the one hand, the Russia Ukraine peace talks have released positive signals, and the United States is considering easing sanctions on Russia, which has reduced potential supply risks. On the other hand, oil producing countries plan to increase production slightly starting from April, which has led to a decline in the international crude oil market; In addition, the imposition of tariffs by the United States has intensified market concerns and may drag down global economic and demand expectations, resulting in a sluggish crude oil market. In terms of propylene, it has already fallen to a temporary low point in the early stage, and there is a tight supply-demand struggle in the middle stage, with a narrow range of fluctuations. Although prices rebounded narrowly in the first ten days, trading fell short of expectations or dragged down the future market. The price of propane mainly fluctuates with crude oil. Overall, the PP raw material market fluctuated in mid March, and the overall support for PP costs was average.

Supply side:

In mid March, the load of domestic PP enterprises increased narrowly, and the market supply remained abundant. Overall, the industry’s overall load level has increased by about 1% to 82% compared to the beginning of the year, and the domestic weekly average production has risen to nearly 780000 tons. The production capacity is still in the blank stage within ten days, and recently there have been maintenance tasks for the equipment of enterprises such as Maoming Petrochemical, Donghua Energy, and Zhongjing Petrochemical. From the results, there is a narrow expectation of supply reduction. As for the ten day period, the supply side’s support for PP spot prices is still relatively weak.

In terms of demand:

In mid March, there was limited improvement in the demand side of PP, and on-site trading remained at the level of essential demand. The rebound trend of consumption levels of woven bags such as fertilizers, cement, and rice in terminal enterprises has slowed down. With the warming of temperatures, the demand for PP in fields such as architecture and agriculture has also increased. But currently, the scale of new orders in the market is generally small, and there has been no significant increase in volume. However, exports are still affected by tariffs, and overall, the demand side shows insufficient momentum.

Future forecast

In mid March, the domestic PP market prices were mainly consolidating. From a fundamental perspective, the overall performance of upstream raw materials in supporting PP is average, with industry supply rising slightly at a high level, slow recovery in consumption, market supply-demand competition, and a dilemma between long and short positions. In the short term, the PP price market may still be under pressure and consolidation.