1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the aniline market fluctuated in November, with a slight overall increase. On November 1st, the market price of aniline was 9100 yuan/ton, and on November 29th, the price was 9337 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.61% during the month and a decrease of 24.39% compared to the same period last year.

2、 Analysis and Review

The aniline market in November was dominated by supply and demand, with prices fluctuating within a range. In the first half of the month, the on-site equipment came to a halt, which boosted the news and pushed up the upstream market, resulting in an increase in aniline prices. In the middle of the month, parking facilities resumed operation, and the demand for gas in the venue weakened, leading to a stagnant market and consolidation. At the end of the month, the market ushered in a new round of maintenance equipment restart, and the price of aniline fell sharply. Subsequently, the price of raw materials rose, and downstream companies entered the market at a low price, resulting in improved purchasing power. After the price of aniline fell, it rebounded,

Pure benzene: In November, the pure benzene market rose in a climbing manner. The overall supply of pure benzene in November was loose, and there was a lot of pressure on imported goods. Downstream traders entered the market at a low price. There was a wave of rise in the second half of the month, but the momentum for further increase was insufficient. At the end of the month, the market turned from rising to falling. On November 1st, the average price of pure benzene was 7109 yuan/ton, and on November 29th, the average price of pure benzene was 7362 yuan/ton, with a 3.09% increase during the period.

3、 Future expectations

The current favorable support for the aniline market is insufficient, and the raw material pure benzene is showing a weak trend. At the same time, downstream demand is sluggish, and the mentality of industry players is not good. It is expected that the aniline market will operate weakly in the short term.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the price of industrial grade 85% formic acid in China rose in early December. As of December 2, the average price of 85% formic acid in China was 2925 yuan/ton, an increase of 5.41% from the same period last month at 2775 yuan/ton.

Raw material side: The main futures of raw material methanol have risen, and spot prices at ports have increased accordingly. The trading atmosphere in the mainland market is good, and local production has declined. In addition, factory inventories have remained at a low level, which is supported by favorable raw material inventory, and the price center has shifted upward.

Supply side: Some of the facilities of the largest domestic formic acid manufacturer have been shut down for maintenance, resulting in tight supply. Overall production has remained at a relatively low level, and the amount of spot goods on site has decreased, providing favorable support for the supply side.

Demand side: Many downstream manufacturers of formic acid have a strong demand for purchasing, and the demand side has limited support for formic acid prices.

The formic acid data analyst from Shengyi Society believes that due to the reduction in supply and the strong operation of raw materials, the formic acid market will operate steadily, but will not have a significant increase due to demand constraints. Specific attention still needs to be paid to the trend of raw materials and downstream markets.

In November 2024, the domestic adhesive short fiber market will maintain stable operation. During the month, the upstream main raw material dissolution slurry market remained stable, while the auxiliary material liquid alkali market rose and then fell back. The sulfuric acid market continued to rise in price, and the cost side trend was upward; In terms of supply, various manufacturers of adhesive short fibers are operating at high loads, with high on-site supply. However, the overall inventory level in the market is low, and some models are in short supply, with good support from the supply side; The peak demand season has ended, but the demand in the terminal market has not improved. The downstream yarn market has insufficient orders, and the enthusiasm for raw material procurement is not good. Therefore, we are holding onto the demand for essential goods. Overall, the price center of the upstream raw material market has slightly shifted upward, with cost support remaining. Some of the on-site sources of goods are tight, and the supply side provides some upward momentum for the market. However, downstream demand has not shown significant improvement, and under the interweaving of on-site news, the price of the adhesive short fiber market continues to remain stable.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of November 29th, the domestic ex factory price of 1.2D * 38mm adhesive short fiber was 13820 yuan/ton, which was the same as the beginning of the month and increased by 7.13% compared to the beginning of the year.

In terms of cost: the market price of the main raw material dissolution slurry is running steadily, the market price of the auxiliary material liquid alkali is declining narrowly, the market price of sulfuric acid is steadily rising, the cost center of gravity is shifting upward, and the average production cost of adhesive short fibers is increasing.

Supply demand: During the month, most of the adhesive short fiber manufacturers’ equipment has been operating stably, and the industry supply is still at a high level. In November, the operating rate of the adhesive short fiber industry was around 84.62%, but the overall inventory level on site is still low, and there is currently no inventory pressure. The downstream cotton yarn market has an average speed of shipment and prices are stagnant and consolidating. The demand in the terminal market is unlikely to improve, and yarn mills often sign orders to maintain normal machine operation, with insufficient support from the demand side.

Market forecast:

The adhesive short fiber market has a high production rate and tight delivery, and there is still demand for the dissolution slurry market. Therefore, the upstream main raw material dissolution slurry market may have strong prices, and the inventory level in the field may continue to be low; Downstream cotton yarn enterprises tend to purchase according to demand, and as we enter the end of the year, downstream yarn factories have low stocking enthusiasm, and there is a possibility of a decrease in demand for adhesive short fibers. Both positive and negative factors coexist. Business analysts predict that the domestic adhesive short fiber market price will decline narrowly next month, with a decline of around 100-300 yuan/ton.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the domestic natural rubber spot market has been weak recently (11.18-11.27). As of November 27th, the spot rubber market in China’s natural rubber market is around 16709 yuan/ton, up 0.72% from 16590 yuan/ton on November 18th, with a high point of 16823 yuan/ton during the cycle. Recently, the price range of raw materials has fluctuated; Domestic Tianjian inventory continues to increase slightly; Downstream tire factories tend to stock up on demand to support the demand for natural rubber, but they have some resistance to high priced sources, and the natural rubber market is consolidating in the high range.

With the arrival of the peak season for the opening and cutting of natural rubber in the fourth quarter, there is upward resistance in the price of raw rubber; The prices of natural rubber raw materials both domestically and internationally remain high and have fallen. As of November 27th, the price of Thai glue was 69.00 Thai baht/kg, a slight increase from 68.10 Thai baht/kg on November 19th; As of November 27th, the purchase price of state-owned and gold rubber water-based concentrated latex raw materials in Hainan production area is around 17300 yuan/ton, which is higher than the 17000 yuan/ton on November 19th.

Maintain a certain inventory of natural rubber. As of November 24, 2024, the total inventory of Tianjiao bonded and general trade in Qingdao area was 423500 tons, which was basically the same as the previous period.

Downstream tires mainly provide essential support for the natural rubber market. As of November 22, the operating load of semi steel tires in domestic tire enterprises is around 7.9%; The operating load of all steel tires in tire enterprises in Shandong region is about 5.3%.

Market forecast: Currently, domestic and international raw material supply prices are fluctuating at high levels; The tire market supports the demand for natural rubber, but is resistant to high priced sources of goods; The inventory of Tianjian has stopped rising in the short term; Overall, it is expected that the natural rubber market will mainly consolidate weakly in the short term.

1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the average price of ammonium sulfate in the domestic market was 850 yuan/ton on November 1st, and 821 yuan/ton on November 27th. This month, the market price of ammonium sulfate has dropped by 3.33%.

2、 Market analysis

This month, the market price of ammonium sulfate first fell and then rose. The operating rate of coking enterprises remains stable, with a slight increase in the operating rate at the domestic level. In early November, the price of ammonium sulfate in the domestic market weakened and declined, and the focus of transactions shifted downwards. Downstream inquiries have decreased, demand has weakened, and coupled with the poor performance of ammonium sulfate exports, ammonium sulfate continues to operate weakly. In mid to late November, the domestic price of ammonium sulfate slowly rose. The downstream demand has increased, and the transaction price of ammonium sulfate market has risen. However, the international market for ammonium sulfate has not improved yet and remains mainly weak. As of November 27th, the mainstream ex factory quotation for coking grade ammonium sulfate in Shandong region is around 760 yuan/ton. Domestic grade ammonium sulfate, the mainstream ex factory quotation in Shandong region is around 820-860 yuan/ton.

According to the weekly K-bar chart from September 2, 2024 to November 18, 2024, it can be seen that the domestic ammonium sulfate cycle is fluctuating. Ammonium sulfate fell significantly in November, with the largest drop being -5.69% in the week of November 4th.

3、 Future forecast

An ammonium sulfate analyst from Shengyi Society believes that the trading atmosphere in the ammonium sulfate market has been improving recently, with downstream urgent purchases resulting in a slight increase in domestic prices. However, the export market remains weak. It is expected that the short-term domestic ammonium sulfate market will mainly experience a narrow adjustment in price.