According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, from September 23rd to 27th (as of 15:00), the average price of methanol in East China ports in the domestic market increased from 2380 yuan/ton to 2478 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 4.13% during the period, a month on month decrease of 0.87%, and a year-on-year increase of 0.10%. Supported by a positive macro outlook, the domestic methanol market has stopped falling. At the same time, the arrival volume of foreign ships is low, port inventory is depleted, and port methanol prices are also relatively strong.

As of the close on September 27th, the closing price of methanol futures on Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange has risen. The main contract 2501 for methanol futures opened at 2520 yuan/ton, with a highest price of 2449 yuan/ton and a lowest price of 2412 yuan/ton. It closed at 2448 yuan/ton in the closing session, up 44 yuan/ton from the previous trading day’s settlement, an increase of 1.83%. The trading volume was 617462 lots, and the position was 650407 lots, with a daily increase of -4754.

As of September 27th, the summary of methanol market prices in various regions:

Region/ Price

Shanxi region/ 2050 yuan/ton factory withdrawal in foreign exchange

Liaoning region/ 2740 yuan/ton

Anhui region/ 2305 yuan/ton

Henan region/ 2125-2130 yuan/ton factory withdrawal in foreign exchange

In terms of cost, imported coal has a price advantage compared to domestic coal, and the demand for imported coal from domestic terminals remains high. It is expected that the import volume will continue to remain high in the later stage; In terms of non electricity, the overall demand recovery in the cement industry has fallen short of expectations, with an increase in locally suspended projects and a lack of tight connection between new and old projects. Downstream demand is lower than in previous years and the decline has expanded compared to the previous period. The chemical industry still maintains normal operations after a small amount of pre holiday storage and transportation, making it difficult to support the market. Overall, it is expected that coal prices will remain stable with a moderate to strong trend before the National Day holiday. The cost of methanol is influenced by favorable factors.

On the demand side, downstream formaldehyde: mainstream factories in Shandong are operating with reduced load, resulting in a decrease in formaldehyde demand; Downstream MTBE: MTBE demand decreases; Downstream acetic acid: Increased demand for acetic acid; Downstream chloride: There are factories in East China with expectations of inventory recovery, leading to an increase in chloride demand; Downstream dimethyl ether: There is currently no plan to start or stop dimethyl ether, and there is not much change in demand. The impact of methanol demand is mixed.

Supply side, Shandong equipment maintenance; Inner Mongolia installation restored. The recovery amount exceeds the loss amount, and the capacity utilization rate increases. Negative factors affecting the methanol supply side.

In terms of external markets, as of the close of September 26th, the CFR Southeast Asian methanol market closed at $345.00- $346.00 per ton. The closing price of the US Gulf methanol market is 105.00-106.00 cents per gallon; The closing price of FOB Rotterdam methanol market is 335.50-336.50 euros/ton, up 9 euros/ton.

In the future forecast, the overall supply of goods is abundant, and the growth rate on the demand side is relatively limited. Methanol analysts predict that the domestic methanol market may mainly consolidate.

Isopropanol

Latest price: On September 26th, the average market price was 6730 yuan/ton.

Analysis points: The isopropanol market is currently stable today. In terms of upstream acetone raw materials, there is not much fluctuation in the mentality of the holding merchants, and their offers are subject to market conditions. Isopropanol manufacturers’ quotations are temporarily stable, market confidence is average, and actual transactions are cautious. Please wait and see before the holiday.

It is expected that the isopropanol market will remain cautious in the short term, with a weak and stable operation.

1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of September 25th, the reference average price of the domestic urea market was 2141 yuan/ton, which is 1.11% lower than the reference average price of 2165 yuan/ton on September 19th.

2、 Market analysis

market conditions

The domestic urea market prices have fallen this week. As of September 25th, the ex factory price of urea in Shandong region is around 1750-1780 yuan/ton, in Hebei region it is around 1825 yuan/ton, in Henan region it is around 1810 yuan/ton, and in Hubei region it is around 1850 yuan/ton.

Supply and demand situation

This week, the urea market is oversupplied. In terms of supply, the urea market has ample supply this week. In terms of demand, downstream demand is dominant, with low enthusiasm for procurement and a cautious attitude towards the urea market, resulting in limited market transactions. Mainstream enterprises still have pending orders.

3、 Future forecast

Business Society’s urea analyst believes that the urea market trend has been weak and downward recently. Downstream procurement has weakened, with low price transactions being the main focus, and the market trading atmosphere is light, making it difficult for the pre holiday market to improve. It is expected that the domestic urea market prices will continue to weaken and decline in the short term.

Price trend

According to the bulk ranking data from Shengyi Society, the domestic PC market was weak and consolidated at a low level at the end of September, with some spot prices of certain brands experiencing a narrow decline. As of September 24th, the mixed benchmark price of Business Society PC is around 16083.33 yuan/ton, with a price fluctuation of -0.82% compared to early September.

Cause analysis

On the supply side: In early September, the overall operating rate of domestic PCs increased, and by mid month, the industry average operating rate had risen by 6% before continuing to operate sideways, with a current overall load of around 79%. Although spot prices have remained at the low point of the year in the medium to long term, the industry’s weekly production remains at a super high level of over 60000 tons, and there is ample supply of goods on site. In September, the supply was loose, which put pressure on manufacturers to lower their factory prices. The future maintenance plan is sparse, the supply-demand mismatch is profound and difficult to change, and the market supply side has a serious drag on PC prices.

In terms of raw materials, it can be seen from the above chart that the price of bisphenol A in China has been mainly sideways recently. At present, the prices of phenol and acetone, the direct raw materials for bisphenol A, are fluctuating and the cost support is average. The downstream production of the two main forces has limited changes, coupled with insufficient pre holiday stocking heat, the company’s profit situation is not good, and the consumption of bisphenol A has not further improved. The future load of the bisphenol A industry is expected to return to excess, and there is an expectation of increased supply of goods. Overall, the support of bisphenol A for PC cost is stable but gradually weakening.

In terms of demand, the PC consumption pattern has not shown any improvement in the medium to long term, and the overall trend has been relatively weak compared to the previous period. At present, the traditional peak season of “Golden September” has come to an end, and the terminal consumption situation has not yet unfolded. The purchasing logic mainly leans towards weak demand. The load recovery of downstream enterprises is not significant, and factories are taking goods to maintain production. The market has not responded well to the double festival stocking market, and buyers are strongly resistant to high priced goods, resulting in slow circulation of goods on site. Due to the delayed peak season consumption, it is difficult for the demand side to form strong support for spot prices.

Future forecast

At the end of September, the PC market was running at a low and weak level. The upstream bisphenol A market is stable with small fluctuations, while the support for PC costs is flat. Domestic aggregation plants have high loads and high supply. The current low point of PC prices is weakly consolidating, and downstream peak season consumption has not yet begun, making it difficult for weak demand stocking to drive the market. The flow of market goods is poor, and the mismatch between supply and demand is profound. Business Society predicts that the PC market will not see a significant upward trend in the short to medium term in the future.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the toluene market has experienced narrow fluctuations and a slight upward adjustment in recent days (9.16-9.23). On September 23, the benchmark price of toluene was 6210 yuan/ton, and on September 16, the benchmark price of toluene was 6180 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.49% during the period. This cycle, the toluene market has been operating steadily with a moderate to strong trend, boosted by the rise in crude oil prices. The mentality of the spot market has improved, and prices are generally firm, resulting in a slight rebound in market prices. Affected by the weak actual demand downstream, the price increase during the week was limited, and the overall operation was stable, moderate, and strong. As of September 23rd, the mainstream quotation range in East China is between 6100-6150 yuan/ton

Cost wise: The international oil price market first fell and then rose. As of the 19th, the settlement price of the main contract for WTI crude oil futures in the United States was $71.95 per barrel, and the settlement price of the main contract for Brent crude oil futures was $74.88 per barrel. The crude oil market has started to decline in this cycle, and this news is negative for international oil prices due to the easing of tensions in the Middle East. Global crude oil demand fell short of expectations, coupled with the end of the peak oil season in the United States, dragging down the crude oil market and causing a decline in crude oil market prices. The rise in crude oil market prices in the later stage of this cycle, coupled with the tense geopolitical situation in the Middle East and the Federal Reserve’s interest rate cuts, has boosted the crude oil market. Looking ahead, the current geopolitical instability continues to affect the market. The traditional peak season in the United States has ended, and global economic data has performed poorly. However, the Federal Reserve’s interest rate cuts have boosted the oil market, and the crude oil market is mainly volatile.

Supply side: Sinopec’s quotation for toluene has been partially reduced during the cycle, but there are slight differences in the amplitude adjustment among different underground suppliers. At present, the enterprise is operating normally, the production of equipment is stable, the products are mostly for personal use, and the production and sales are stable. As of September 23rd, East China Company quoted 6150 yuan/ton, North China Company quoted 6150 yuan/ton, South China Company quoted 6100-6150 yuan/ton, and Central China Company quoted 6200 yuan/ton.

Demand side: The external market for xylene continues to decline, and the demand support for toluene is relatively weak

On September 23rd, Sinopec Sales Company implemented a price of 7800 yuan/ton for xylene, which remained unchanged from the price on September 16th. The PX price continued to decline both inside and outside the cycle, with CFR China closing at $840-842/ton as of September 20th, a cumulative decrease of $6/ton from $834-836/ton on September 17th.

Future forecast: From a cost perspective, the expected improvement in the crude oil market will boost market sentiment. At present, the overall inventory of toluene in the supply side is at a stable, medium, and low level, which is a certain positive boost to the market. On the demand side, the downstream market has performed poorly, maintaining the intention of purchasing essential goods. Although there is a demand for stocking up in the downstream near the holiday, the overall demand is still difficult to increase, and the demand side is still weak. Overall, weak demand has constrained the upward potential of the toluene market, and it is expected that the toluene market will continue to maintain a narrow range of fluctuations in the short term. Focus on downstream stocking situation in the future.