The price of isooctanol surged after the holiday

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of September 20th, the price of isooctanol was 8666.67 yuan/ton, a significant increase of 8.79% compared to the price of 7966.67 yuan/ton on September 15th. After the holiday, the price of isooctanol increased significantly. The production of isooctanol units has gradually resumed, and downstream stocking is concentrated before the National Day holiday. The supply of isooctanol is tight, and the operating rate of downstream plasticizer DOP has increased. The demand for isooctanol has also increased, and the supply and demand in the isooctanol market are tight, resulting in a significant increase in the price of isooctanol.

Crude oil prices rise, octanol costs increase

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of September 20th, the settlement price of the main Brent crude oil futures contract was $74.01 per barrel, a significant increase of 6.97% compared to the crude oil price of $69.19 per barrel on September 11th; Compared to September 15th, the crude oil price increased by $71.61 per barrel, with a growth rate of 3.35%. The significant increase in crude oil prices is favorable for downstream markets, and the expected cost of isooctanol is expected to rise.

Downstream plasticizer DOP prices surge

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of September 20th, the price of plasticizer DOP was 8963.75 yuan/ton, a significant increase of 5.44% compared to the DOP price of 8501.25 yuan/ton on September 14th. The price of DOP has significantly increased after the holiday. The expected increase in operating rate of downstream plasticizer enterprises has led to an increase in demand for isooctanol plasticizers. In addition, stocking up before the National Day holiday has led to an increase in downstream demand for isooctanol.

Future expectations

The data analyst of Business Society’s octanol product believes that the market for isooctanol will rise after the holiday. In terms of supply, isooctanol manufacturers have stable production and sufficient supply of isooctanol; In terms of demand, plasticizer companies have increased their production, coupled with stocking up before the National Day holiday, resulting in an increase in demand for isooctanol; The United States has significantly reduced interest rates, leading to a surge in crude oil prices and an expected increase in the cost of isooctanol. Cost support, tight supply and increased demand, increased support for the rise of isooctanol, and expected volatility in the future price of isooctanol.

1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the average price of ammonium sulfate in the domestic market on September 19th was 911 yuan/ton, which is 0.18% lower than the average price of 913 yuan/ton on September 11th.

2、 Market analysis

In mid September, the price of ammonium sulfate in the domestic market slightly decreased. The profits of coking enterprises have decreased, with production restrictions being the main focus, and the operating rate at the domestic level has decreased. Downstream compound fertilizer enterprises have reduced inquiries and are more cautious in procurement. Recently, the weak trend in urea prices has had a negative impact on ammonium sulfate. The export demand is in high demand, and there is currently no significant improvement in the market. As of September 19th, the mainstream ex factory quotation for coking grade ammonium sulfate in Shandong region is around 900 yuan/ton. Domestic grade ammonium sulfate, the mainstream ex factory quotation in Shandong region is around 905-935 yuan/ton.

3、 Future forecast

An ammonium sulfate analyst from Shengyi Society believes that the ammonium sulfate market has experienced a slight decline in recent days, with an overall stalemate as the main trend. At present, there is no positive news in the market, and the trading atmosphere is relatively weak. It is expected that in the short term, the domestic ammonium sulfate market will mainly operate in a narrow range of consolidation.

In mid September, the domestic ABS market was consolidating at a low level, and spot prices of various grades remained stable with small fluctuations. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of September 19th, the average price of ABS sample products was 11587.50 yuan/ton, an increase or decrease of -1.07% compared to the price level on September 1st.

Fundamental analysis

Supply level: In mid September, the load level of the domestic ABS industry was average, and some of the early maintenance capacity resumed work. The industry’s operating rate rebounded by about 3% to 65%. However, due to the slow digestion of the supply, overall inventory continues to accumulate in a pattern of stable supply with an upward trend. Recently, the inventory of ABS finished products has risen to over 185000 tons. Overall, the current supply side has moderate support for ABS spot prices.

Cost factor: During this period, the overall trend of the three upstream materials of ABS showed mixed ups and downs, and the support effect on the cost side of ABS was average. The acrylonitrile market has fallen from a high level. This phase of high point market benefited from favorable supply conditions, but there was little substantial improvement in fundamentals. The lack of timely follow-up on demand and the transfer of goods from manufacturers to midstream merchants often result in a lack of digestion power for product inventory, leading to local resource surplus and causing the market to fall again.

Recently, the butadiene market has seen an increase. Before the holiday, major factories raised their ex factory prices twice, boosting the confidence of holders and leading to a general increase in on-site offers. In terms of demand, there has been a recent restart of facilities in East China, which has boosted the demand for raw material butadiene and significantly improved downstream purchasing enthusiasm. Currently, it is difficult to find low-priced sources of goods, and it is expected that the trend will be mainly stable, moderate, and strong in the short term.

The styrene market has been trading sideways at a low level this decade. Due to significant fluctuations in the crude oil market, the price of pure benzene has weakened, and the cost support of styrene has cooled down. The supply is relatively abundant, and the inventory of ports in East China remains low. Domestic demand is relatively stable, and the situation of new orders is average. There is a struggle between long and short positions in the market, and there is limited change in the supply and demand of styrene spot before and after the Mid Autumn Festival. It is expected that the market will continue to organize and operate in the future.

In terms of demand: September is already halfway through, and the main terminal demand for ABS has not yet shown the peak season level. Instead, it continues the off-season trend, and there is a strong wait-and-see sentiment. The high-temperature holiday for home appliance manufacturers has basically ended, but the overall load position of downstream factories is slowly recovering. The recovery of terminal demand is slow, and stocking operations are mainly based on weak demand to maintain production. Traders lack confidence, have a low willingness to build warehouses, and offer according to market conditions, resulting in a slower flow of goods. Overall, the demand side is not providing strong support to the market.

Future forecast

In mid September, domestic ABS prices remained weak and stable. Upstream three materials showed mixed ups and downs, providing average comprehensive support for ABS cost side. The load of ABS polymerization plant has slightly rebounded within ten days, and the inventory of finished products has slightly increased. The weak and rigid demand situation on the demand side continues, and market trading remains weak. The mismatch between supply and demand in the market is difficult to change, and due to the influence of multiple bearish factors, the traditional demand peak season expectation in September has not been fulfilled. The market has a bearish attitude towards the future, and it is expected that the ABS market will maintain a weak trend in the short term.

1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, the domestic isopropanol market has slightly declined this week. On Monday, the average price of isopropanol in China was 6874 yuan/ton, and on Saturday it was 6844 yuan/ton. The price dropped by 0.44% during the week.

This week, the domestic isopropanol market experienced a slight decline. The upstream acetone market fell, while the propylene market fluctuated and fell this week. Isopropanol support was insufficient, and the market focus shifted downwards. In terms of demand, the market performance is average, and there is a strong wait-and-see sentiment in the market. Those who urgently need to buy goods are cautious when placing actual orders. As of now, most of the isopropanol market prices in Shandong are around 6700-6800 yuan/ton; The majority of isopropanol prices in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions are around 6850-6950 yuan/ton, while in the South China region, the price is around 7000 yuan/ton.

In terms of raw material acetone, the market price of acetone has fallen this week. The average price of acetone on Monday was 5975.5 yuan/ton, and on Saturday it was 5792.5 yuan/ton, with a price drop of 2.77%. At present, the trading atmosphere in the market is quiet, with terminal factories mainly digesting contracts, and sporadic downstream restocking entering the market. Traders are under great pressure and mostly adopt a wait-and-see approach.

In terms of propylene, the propylene market has fluctuated and fallen this week, and overall prices have fallen. On Monday, the average domestic propylene price was 6831.25 yuan/ton, and on Saturday, the average price was 6773.25 yuan/ton, with a price reduction of 0.85%. At present, the shipment situation of enterprises is average, and downstream purchases are made according to demand. It is expected that the market will experience slight fluctuations and consolidation in the short term.

3、 Future forecast

The isopropanol analyst from Business Society Chemical Branch believes that the isopropanol market price has fallen this week. The acetone market is declining, the propylene market is fluctuating and falling, and cost support is inadequate. The enthusiasm for downstream procurement is average, and low procurement is preferred for urgent needs. It is expected that the isopropanol market will weaken and consolidate in the short term.

1、 Price trend

According to the commodity analysis system of Shengyi Society, the price of caustic soda increased in early September. At the beginning of the month, the average market price was 829 yuan/ton. On September 12th, the average market price was around 833 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 0.48% and a year-on-year decrease of 0.6%.

2、 In terms of market conditions

According to the commodity analysis system of Shengyi Society, the price of caustic soda rose in early September.

3、 Supply side

At the beginning of September, the market showed an upward trend, with some areas experiencing some improvement in transaction conditions. The maintenance of some facilities in Shandong had a significant boost to market prices, and there was not much pressure on enterprise inventory. Data shows that as of September 5, 2024, the inventory of liquid alkali sample enterprises with a capacity of 200000 tons or more in their factory warehouses nationwide was 286900 tons (wet tons), a decrease of 2.61% compared to the previous period.

4、 In terms of demand

In early September, downstream alumina prices continued to show a stable to strong trend. Some aluminum plants that have a demand for replenishment have concentrated their purchases in the market, driving the price of caustic soda to continue to rise. Alumina continues to be in a tight pattern, and there may still be a demand for replenishing caustic soda.

Business analysts believe that in the near future, the price of caustic soda rose in early September, and inventory in the Shandong region remained relatively low, coupled with some downstream purchasing intentions increasing. In the later stage, the supply side’s early maintenance equipment gradually resumed normal production, but there were no obvious maintenance equipment in the later stage, and the supply of goods showed a regional increase. On the demand side, the main downstream alumina enterprises’ essential procurement has provided certain support for the caustic soda market, while the demand of other downstream industries has slightly increased. The overall demand side has improved compared to the previous period. From the perspective of both supply and demand, there is not much overall change, and it is expected that caustic soda will continue to maintain a strong operating market in the later stage, depending on downstream market demand.