This week (September 2-6, 2024), the cost trend of upstream raw material dissolution slurry for adhesive short fibers is relatively firm, and cost support still exists; The manufacturer’s inventory is not high; Downstream cotton yarn is following up as needed, approaching a new round of signing nodes. Downstream manufacturers are gradually inquiring about orders and prices. With the interweaving of information on the market, there is a certain confidence in the “Golden Nine”, and manufacturers are gradually raising prices by 100-200 yuan/ton. The overall operation of adhesive short fiber is relatively strong, and the market center of gravity has shifted upward.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the price of viscose staple fiber has slightly increased this week (September 2-6, 2024). As of September 6th, the domestic factory price for 1.2D * 38mm adhesive short fiber is 13640 yuan/ton, an increase of 140 yuan/ton from last week, with a weekly increase of 1.04%.

Cost side support still exists

The upstream raw material end main material dissolution slurry market is strong and stable. As of now, the price of domestic dissolution slurry is around 7800 yuan/ton, the price of external broad-leaved slurry is around 960 US dollars/ton, and the price of coniferous slurry is around 1040 US dollars/ton. The price trend of auxiliary materials in the market varies. As of September 6th, the average price of 32% liquid caustic soda in the domestic market was 886.51 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.28% compared to the beginning of the month; The average market price of 98% acid is 358 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5.79% compared to the beginning of the month. Overall, the upstream main raw material dissolution slurry market remains strong and stable, the sulfuric acid market price continues to decline, the liquid alkali market price has risen narrowly, and the cost side of the adhesive short fiber market still has positive support.

Stable supply, low inventory

The supply of adhesive short fiber industry is at a high level, and most manufacturers have stable equipment operation. The on-site operating rate is at a high level, and the current daily operating rate of the industry is around 84.79%. The early parking and maintenance equipment in Xinjiang has not been restarted yet, and the overall market supply is high. The inventory levels of various adhesive short fiber manufacturers are low, and the on-site supply is slightly tight. The supply side provides some upward momentum for the market.

The demand has not shown significant improvement

Although it has entered the traditional peak season for textile production in September, there is no obvious sign of improvement in the textile terminal market. Downstream yarn manufacturers have insufficient new orders, making it difficult to increase their enthusiasm for raw material procurement. Manufacturers are holding on to signing orders for essential needs, and the new round of orders on site is expected to take about a month. The recovery of demand is not as expected.

Downstream cotton yarn market

This week, the price of cotton yarn has slightly increased with the rise of viscose staple fiber. As of September 6th, the average ex factory price of human cotton yarn (30S, ring spun, first-class) was 17625 yuan/ton, an increase of 250 yuan/ton from last week, with a weekly increase of 1.44%.

Future forecast

The upstream main raw material market price of viscose staple fiber may remain high, and the supply in the market is relatively tight. However, the new round of signing orders in the downstream market has basically ended, and the peak season has arrived. There is an expectation of an increase in the operating rate of human cotton yarn factories, which will drive the consumption of viscose staple fiber. Therefore, it is expected that the demand for viscose staple fiber may increase in the later stage, but it is difficult for the demand side to improve significantly in the short term. Viscose staple fiber manufacturers mainly deliver orders, and business analysts predict that the focus of the domestic viscose staple fiber market will remain stable in the short term, with little price fluctuation. The price is expected to be in the range of 13600-13700 yuan/ton.

1、 Price trend

Taking the sulfuric acid method gold red stone titanium dioxide with a large volume of goods in the domestic market as an example, according to data monitoring by Shengyi Society, the average price of titanium dioxide in the domestic market this week is 15750 yuan/ton, and the market is temporarily stable.

2、 Market analysis

The domestic titanium dioxide market is temporarily stable this week. The price of titanium concentrate on raw materials is weakly stable, while the price of sulfuric acid is temporarily stable. At present, domestic titanium dioxide manufacturers’ quotations are mainly stable, while traders’ quotations are relatively flexible. The market has a strong wait-and-see attitude, and the trading situation is relatively light. As of now, the domestic quotation for sulfuric acid based pyrite type titanium dioxide is mostly between 15400-16300 yuan/ton; The quotation for rutile titanium dioxide is around 14200-14500 yuan/ton. The actual transaction price is negotiable.

In terms of titanium concentrate, the titanium concentrate market in the Panxi region is operating weakly and steadily. At present, the spot prices in the market are relatively stagnant,. Downstream titanium dioxide enterprises have a general market situation, with a weak market and few inquiries for titanium ore. They maintain a strong demand and purchase cautiously. As of now, the price of 38-42 grade titanium ore without tax is around 1620-1650 yuan/ton, the price of 46 grade 10 titanium concentrate without tax is around 2270-2300 yuan/ton, and the price of 47 grade 20 titanium concentrate without tax is around 2400-2500 yuan/ton. In the short term, the price of Panxi titanium concentrate continues to remain stagnant, and the specific transaction price will be discussed on a case by case basis.

3、 Future forecast

The titanium dioxide analyst from Shengyi Society believes that the domestic titanium dioxide market is basically stable this week, with average trading on the market. Downstream market demand is weak, with a focus on wait-and-see measures. It is expected that the market will remain stable in the short term, with actual transaction prices subject to negotiation.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the formic acid market still performed poorly in early September. As of September 3, the average price of 85% formic acid was 2575 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5.55% from the same period last month at 2725 yuan/ton.

Supply side: Currently, mainstream production enterprises are facing maintenance issues, resulting in a decrease in on-site supply.

On the demand side: Downstream demand is bleak, with limited growth.

In terms of cost: The raw material methanol market has been continuously weak recently, with an increase in operating rates and an increase in imported quantities to ports. Inventory remains high, and prices are running weakly, weakening support for formic acid.

Market forecast: With the general weakening of the chemical market, the weakness of formic acid is difficult to change, and more attention needs to be paid to downstream market demand.

1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the domestic cyclohexanone market was weakly consolidated in August. From August 1st to 30th, the average price of cyclohexanone in the domestic market dropped from 10100.00 yuan/ton to 9866.67 yuan/ton, a decrease of 233.33 yuan or 2.31%, and a year-on-year increase of 1.27%.

The raw material pure benzene fluctuated and rose, and the listing prices of major production enterprises have rebounded. Downstream chemical fiber procurement is on demand, and the supply of goods is stable. However, due to the weak industry mentality, the market transaction center has weakened.

2、 Market analysis

Cost aspect: In August, the domestic pure benzene market situation was sorted and operated. As of August 31st, the benchmark price of pure benzene in Shengyi Society was 8613.00 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.07% compared to the beginning of this month (8438.00 yuan/ton). Compared to 9318.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of July, the price has decreased by 705 yuan/ton, a decrease of 7.57%. In the cost composition of the traditional cyclohexanone process route, pure benzene accounts for 53%, and the market trend of pure benzene directly affects the price of cyclohexanone. The cost aspect of cyclohexanone is well supported.

Supply side: According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the domestic production capacity of cyclohexanone is about 6.55 million tons, and the current operating load is around 70%. The supply of products is relatively balanced.

On the demand side: In August, the domestic caprolactam market fluctuated and rose, with downstream caprolactam production being the main focus of cyclohexanone plants. Caprolactam is one of the most important downstream producers of cyclohexanone. The price of raw material pure benzene fluctuated upwards. Some caprolactam companies have raised their quotations. Downstream on-demand procurement, with average terminal demand. As of August 30th, the benchmark price of caprolactam in Shengyi Society is 12828.33 yuan/ton. The temporary storage of demand for cyclohexanone is favorable.

3、 Future forecast

Raw material pure benzene fluctuated upwards, with good cost support and favorable downstream temporary storage. Analysts from Shengyi Society predict that domestic cyclohexanone will fluctuate upwards within a range in the short term.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the toluene market experienced a volatile downward trend in August 2024. From August 1st to 30th, the domestic toluene market price fell from 7390 yuan/ton to 6840 yuan/ton, with a price drop of 7.44% during the period.

Mid to early month: The toluene market continued to operate weakly in this cycle, with market prices fluctuating downward. During this period, the decline in crude oil prices dragged down market sentiment, and the overall market atmosphere was bearish. The overall demand is weak, the purchasing enthusiasm of the gasoline blending industry is low, and the downstream market entry enthusiasm is low. Coupled with the weakening of the macro level, the market has a strong atmosphere, and the toluene market has continued to decline.

Late month: The toluene market continued to operate weakly, with Sinopec’s ex factory prices continuously decreasing, dragging down market sentiment and causing a wide decline in spot market prices. In terms of supply, toluene has arrived at ports in East and South China, causing a slight accumulation of inventory and dragging down market sentiment. The overall demand is weak, and the purchasing enthusiasm of the gasoline blending industry is low. Downstream demand is biased towards rigid demand, and under the influence of negative factors on the supply side, market prices continue to operate at a low level.

Cost wise: In August 2024, the crude oil market maintained a range oscillation trend. In the first half of the month, the crude oil market first fell and then rose. In early August, due to OPEC+’s 2.2 million barrels per day production reduction, it will be implemented until the end of September. However, from October onwards, depending on market conditions, production may gradually increase, which is bearish for the crude oil market. In addition, the poor non farm payroll data and rising unemployment rate released by the United States in July, coupled with poor global economic data, have intensified market concerns about the demand outlook and increased negative pressure on the psychological level, leading to a decline in the crude oil market trend. Starting from mid August, the crude oil market began to rise significantly due to the significant decrease in US crude oil inventories and the easing of geopolitical conflicts. Overall, the crude oil market fluctuated within a range. Looking ahead, crude oil analysts from Shengyi Society believe that the current geopolitical instability continues to affect the market. The traditional peak season in the United States is coming to an end, and coupled with poor economic data performance, the crude oil market is mainly volatile. As of August 28th, the settlement price of the main contract for WTI crude oil futures in the United States was $74.52 per barrel; The settlement price of the main Brent crude oil futures contract is $77.58 per barrel.

Supply side: Sinopec’s toluene quotation has been lowered multiple times during the cycle, but there are slight differences in the amplitude of each underground adjustment. At present, the enterprise is operating normally, the production of equipment is stable, the products are mostly for personal use, and the production and sales are stable. As of August 30th, East China Company quoted 6800 yuan/ton, North China Company quoted 6800 yuan/ton, South China Company quoted 6800-6850 yuan/ton, and Central China Company quoted 6950 yuan/ton.

Demand side: The external market for xylene continues to decline, and the demand support for toluene is relatively weak

On August 30th, Sinopec executed a price of 8050 yuan/ton for xylene, a decrease of 500 yuan/ton compared to July 2024. The PX price continued to decline both inside and outside the cycle, with CFR China closing at $927-929/ton as of August 29th, a cumulative decrease of $65/ton from $993/ton at the end of July.

During this period, the overseas market for toluene in Asia has significantly decreased. As of August 29th, the closing price of FOB Korea in September was 814-816 US dollars per ton, a decrease of 37 US dollars per ton; The closing price of CFR China in September is $823-825 per ton, a decrease of $61 per ton.

Market forecast: The toluene market will continue to decline in August, and the current price has fallen to a new low for the year. Although the crude oil market will strengthen to some extent at the end of the month, the boost to the market will be limited. In terms of supply, with the recent commissioning of some early maintenance facilities in the northern region, the overall supply of toluene in the northern region is relatively loose, while in the southern region, there are more incoming goods at the end of the month, and the overall supply in the region is relatively loose. Under the influence of loose supply, the current toluene market atmosphere is weak. There has been no significant improvement in demand recently, and downstream companies will continue to replenish inventory as needed. Overall, negative factors in the toluene market still dominate, and it is expected that the toluene market will continue to operate weakly in the short term. In the future, the focus will be on downstream demand.