In August, the market for ethyl acetate showed a weak downward trend. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of August 30th, the average production price of ethyl acetate was 6016.67 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3.22% compared to the beginning of the month price of 6216.67 yuan/ton. The main reason for the weak demand side, limited upstream support, and bearish supply mentality led to a weak decline in the price of ethyl acetate.

Market analysis: This month, the overall market price of ethyl acetate has declined. The price continued to decline in the first half of the month, mainly due to the stable raw material market, insufficient cost support, and weak downstream demand, resulting in a continuous decline in the ethyl acetate market; In the second half of the month, the price of raw material acetic acid rose sharply, which had a positive impact on the cost side and led to a rebound in the price of ethyl acetate. However, with the decrease in raw material prices, the cost advantage disappeared, and coupled with flat downstream demand, the market support was insufficient. The atmosphere in the market was bearish again, and the price of ethyl acetate fell.

According to the Business Society Acetic Acid Commodity Market Analysis System, as of August 30th, the price was 3350 yuan/ton, an overall increase of 0.75% compared to the acetic acid price of 3325 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month. The price of acetic acid on the raw material side first rose and then fell, with limited cost support. The acetic acid market continues to transmit to the end, affecting the weak performance of downstream ethyl esters.

Looking at the future market, the upstream acetic acid price of ethyl acetate continues to decline, with a negative impact on the cost side. At the same time, the bidding prices of the main factories of ethyl acetate continue to decrease, leading to a lack of confidence in the future market. Downstream companies follow up as needed, and the market trading atmosphere is quiet. It is expected that the ethyl acetate market will be weak and orderly in the future. It is recommended to pay attention to the price execution of raw materials such as acetic acid and ethyl acetate manufacturers.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the domestic butadiene market first fell and then rose in August 2024. From August 1st to 29th, the domestic butadiene market price increased from 12662.50 yuan/ton to 12925 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 2.07% during the period.

In the first half of the month, the butadiene market continued to operate weakly, and downstream market demand remained lukewarm, providing limited support for market sentiment. The overall market performance was weak, dragging down market quotes. On the supply side, this week’s quoted goods increased compared to the previous period, and the market supply was relatively loose. Under the dual weak supply and demand pattern, the butadiene market trend was relatively weak.

Mid month: The butadiene market experienced narrow fluctuations, with a slight rebound in market prices, but the magnitude was limited. During the week, some enterprises in Shandong region suspended their export plans, which led to a slight rebound in spot market prices in the region and indirectly affected the slight increase in market quotes in East China. However, downstream market demand has remained lukewarm, with limited support for market sentiment, resulting in limited overall volatility.

Late of the month: The butadiene market began to rebound in late of the month, with tight supply in some areas of Shandong and Jiangsu. Holders of goods showed strong reluctance to sell, and prices continued to rise. As the price difference between the north and south gradually widened, the East China market heated up. In terms of downstream demand, the synthetic rubber market has performed well recently, with stable prices and occasional increases, which has once again boosted market sentiment. As of the 29th, the self pickup price in East China is around 12700-12800 yuan/ton.

Cost wise: In August 2024, the crude oil market maintained a range oscillation trend. In the first half of the month, the crude oil market first fell and then rose. In early August, due to OPEC+’s 2.2 million barrels per day production reduction, it will be implemented until the end of September. However, from October onwards, depending on market conditions, production may gradually increase, which is bearish for the crude oil market. In addition, the poor non farm payroll data and rising unemployment rate released by the United States in July, coupled with poor global economic data, have intensified market concerns about the demand outlook and increased negative pressure on the psychological level, leading to a decline in the crude oil market trend. Starting from mid August, the crude oil market began to rise significantly due to the significant decrease in US crude oil inventories and the easing of geopolitical conflicts. Overall, the crude oil market fluctuated within a range. Looking ahead, crude oil analysts from Shengyi Society believe that the current geopolitical instability continues to affect the market. The traditional peak season in the United States is coming to an end, and coupled with poor economic data performance, the crude oil market is mainly volatile.

Supply side: The listed price of butadiene for various sales companies of Sinopec has been raised twice in a row to 13000 yuan/ton at the end of the month, with a cumulative increase of 500 yuan/ton. The Northern Huajin 120000 tons/year butadiene plant is scheduled to shut down for maintenance on July 12th and is scheduled to restart in early September; Jilin Petrochemical’s 190000 tons/year butadiene plant shut down on August 25th and is expected to restart in October. Downstream supporting facilities will also shut down simultaneously, with limited impact on the market; Since the shutdown and restart of Shenghong Refining’s 200000 tons/year butadiene unit in early August, the current operating rate is relatively low. Overall, there are many equipment maintenance tasks, and the supply of butadiene in the market is relatively tight.

On the demand side: According to the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, as of August 28th, the market price of butadiene rubber in East China was 15040 yuan/ton, an increase of about 2.7% from 14890 yuan/ton on August 1st. Especially since late August, the overall price of butadiene rubber has risen significantly, with a slight increase in the high price of raw material butadiene; Shunding rubber production has increased; Downstream tire production has slightly increased. The supply price of butadiene rubber has been gradually raised recently, and as of August 28th, the ex factory price of butadiene rubber for PetroChina Northeast Sales Company is 15000 yuan/ton.

External market: The August butadiene market experienced mixed fluctuations, with FOB prices in South Korea ranging from $1445-1455 per ton as of August 27th; China CFR reports $1465-1475 per ton; European butadiene FOB Rotterdam closed at $1115-1125 per ton; FD Northwest Europe closed at 1085-1095 euros/ton.

Market forecast: Currently, the overall supply of butadiene in the market is tight, and holders have a strong mentality of being reluctant to sell and raising prices. Market offers continue to rise at the end of the month. The downstream synthetic rubber market has been continuously rising in market prices since the end of August, which has given a strong boost to the butadiene market. Currently, low-priced sources of goods are difficult to find in the market, and downstream suppliers are still replenishing inventory as needed. Overall, with the boost of favorable supply and demand, it is expected that the butadiene market will have a strong trend in the short term, and downstream transactions will be the focus of attention in the future.

The phthalic anhydride market remained sluggish in August

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of August 28th, the price of phthalic anhydride produced by phthalic anhydride was 7587.50 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3.80% from the price of 7887.50 yuan/ton on August 1st. The prices of raw materials have been continuously falling, and the price of phthalic anhydride has slightly declined several times in August, resulting in a sustained downturn in the phthalic anhydride market. At the end of August, domestic ortho phthalic anhydride was priced at 7500-7700 yuan/ton before leaving the factory, while domestic nano phthalic anhydride was priced at 7100-7300 yuan/ton before leaving the factory.

Supply side: Stable supply of goods

The operation of domestic phthalic anhydride plants is temporarily stable, with a production rate of about 60%. The spot supply of phthalic anhydride is stable, and the sales situation of phthalic anhydride manufacturers is average. In August, the price of industrial naphthalene stabilized strongly, and the market for naphthalene based phthalic anhydride stabilized. The market for ortho phthalic anhydride fell, and cost support decreased. The market for ortho phthalic anhydride fell.

The cost of raw material ortho benzene has dropped for three consecutive times

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of August 28th, the price of ortho benzene was 7900 yuan/ton, a triple decline of 7.06% compared to the price of 8500 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month. The price of ortho benzene has fallen, and the cost of raw materials for phthalic anhydride has decreased, resulting in significant downward pressure on phthalic anhydride. Industrial naphthalene manufacturers have reduced their burden and pressure, resulting in a tight supply. Industrial naphthalene is experiencing a narrow range of price increases, and there is a strong willingness for the rise of naphthalene phthalic anhydride. Phthalic anhydride manufacturers are losing money, and they have a strong willingness to raise prices. The downward pressure on neighboring phthalic anhydride raw materials is increasing, and neighboring phthalic anhydride prices are weakly consolidating.

Demand side: DOP market hits bottom

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of August 28th, the price of plasticizer DOP was 8761 yuan/ton, a decrease of 7.78% from the DOP price of 9500 yuan/ton on August 1st at the beginning of the month. Jinjiu is approaching, terminal demand is slowly recovering, raw material octanol prices have stopped falling and rebounded, costs have stopped falling, downstream customers’ enthusiasm for placing orders has rebounded, plasticizer transaction willingness has increased, and plasticizer DOP prices have stopped falling and rebounded.

Future forecast

According to the data analyst of Shengyi Society’s phthalic anhydride products, in terms of cost, the price of ortho xylene has fallen, and the cost of phthalic anhydride has decreased; In terms of demand, the downstream DOP market has rebounded and stopped falling, while the demand for plasticizers has slightly rebounded. In the future, with cost reduction and weak demand, it is expected that the neighboring phthalic anhydride market will remain weak and stabilize.

In late August, the acetone market entered a deep decline mode. According to the analysis system of Business Society, the national acetone market has been trading at an average price of 6800 yuan/ton since August 16th, falling to 6435 yuan/ton on August 27th, a decrease of 5.37%. Looking at the acetone market in East China, it has been trading at an average price of 6650 yuan/ton since August 16th, falling to 6250 yuan/ton on August 27th, a decrease of 6.02%. During this period, lower prices still entered the market.

In terms of supply, the inventory at Jiangyin Port reached 35000 tons in the latter half of the year, the highest level since the beginning of the year. There will continue to be imports and domestic trade shipments arriving to replenish the inventory. It is understood that the import sources are mainly from South Korea, Saudi Arabia, and Thailand, and it is not ruled out that the high level at the end of the month will continue.

As Shenghong Refining and Wanhua Chemical plants resume operations, the operating rate of domestic phenol ketone plants continues to remain around 80%. It is reported that the operating rate at the end of the month has further increased, and the operating rate in September may approach 90%. From this, it can be seen that the acetone production in August was 270000 tons, and the acetone production in September increased to 300000 tons. The supply has been consistently high recently.

From a cost perspective, pure benzene has fallen due to weakened support from the cost side, slow inventory digestion, significant accumulation of inventory, significant resistance to shipment from petrochemical enterprises, and pressure to digest contract sources. Under multiple pressures, traders have had to lower their prices to ship.

The acetone offers in major mainstream markets across the country on August 27th are as follows:

Region/ Quotation/ Price range (8.16-27)

East China region/ 6250./ -400

Shandong region/ 6400./ -350

Yanshan region/ 7450./ -400

South China region/ 7550./ -400

From the demand side, the top two downstream industries have relatively stable production, with bisphenol A production at 60% and acetone cyanohydrin MMA production at 50%. The overall production of bisphenol A and MMA downstream is stable, with limited export orders for isopropanol and domestic facilities maintaining a level close to 50%.

With the wide decline of the acetone market, the end of the month is approaching. The operating rate of phenol ketone factories remains high, and the import contract goods are arriving at the port normally, with sufficient supply. Traders still have shipment pressure; From the demand side, solvent terminal factories have seen an increase in demand for acetone as the weather cools down. Currently, acetone has bottomed out, making it a good time for the demand side to restock. In September, there will be a demand for stocking during the Double Festival holiday, and Business Society expects that trading will improve in the later period.

1、 Price trend

According to data monitored by Shengyi Society, as of August 26th, the average price of industrial grade high-quality cyclohexane in China this week was 7833.33 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.42% compared to the same period last week. Recently, cyclohexane prices have been narrowly lowered, and downstream demand is weak. Overall market shipments are slow and inventory is running at a high level. Downstream purchases are mainly for essential needs, and many businesses are adopting a cautious and wait-and-see attitude.

2、 Market analysis

Cost wise: Upstream pure benzene prices are mainly fluctuating, with a lack of support on the cost side. Pure benzene ports continue to accumulate inventory, resulting in insufficient support on the cost side and a fluctuating decline. International crude oil prices have fallen, with a weak focus. Downstream rigid demand procurement is the main focus, and the market price of pure benzene lacks sufficient momentum.

3、 Future forecast

The cyclohexane analyst from Shengyi Society believes that it is expected that the market price of cyclohexane will fluctuate weakly in the short term. Currently, the upstream cost support is average, and downstream demand is insufficient.