According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, from August 2nd to August 9th, the domestic butadiene market price decreased from 12662.57 yuan/ton to 12425 yuan/ton, with a price reduction of 1.88% during the period. This week, the butadiene market continued to operate weakly, and downstream market demand remained lukewarm, providing limited support for market sentiment. The overall performance of the market was weak, dragging down market quotes. On the supply side, this week’s quoted goods increased compared to the previous period, and the market supply was relatively loose. Under the weak supply-demand pattern, the butadiene market trend is relatively weak. As of August 8th, the self pickup price of butadiene in East China was around 12150 yuan/ton, a decrease of about 200 yuan/ton compared to the same period last week. The ex factory price of Sinopec is 12500 yuan/ton, reduced by 300 yuan/ton.

On the cost side: During this cycle, the crude oil market has declined. On the one hand, the OPEC+production reduction of 2.2 million barrels per day will be implemented until the end of September, but from October onwards, depending on market conditions, production may gradually increase, which is bearish for the crude oil market. On the other hand, the poor non farm payroll data and rising unemployment rate released by the United States in July, coupled with poor global economic data, have intensified market concerns about the demand outlook and increased negative pressure on the psychological level, leading to a decline in the crude oil market trend. Overall, the crude oil market has significantly declined during the cycle, with a negative rate of change in crude oil. As of August 8th, international crude oil futures have risen. The settlement price of the main contract for WTI crude oil futures in the United States was $76.19 per barrel, an increase of $0.96 or 1.3%. The settlement price of the main Brent crude oil futures contract was $79.16 per barrel, an increase of $0.83 or 1.1%

Supply side: The listed price of butadiene for various sales companies of Sinopec has been lowered to 12500 yuan/ton. The Northern Huajin 120000 tons/year butadiene plant is scheduled to shut down for maintenance on July 12th and is scheduled to restart at the end of August; The second unit of Fujian United and Zhejiang Petrochemical has been restarted in June. Recently, there has been little change in the domestic comprehensive operating rate, and the supply of butadiene is relatively stable. But with the gradual increase in load after some devices resume production, the market expects that the future supply may be relatively loose, and negative factors on the supply side will emerge.

Demand side: The downstream synthetic rubber market continued to weaken this week, affected by low corporate profits. The downstream terminal market maintained a strong demand for raw material butadiene and had a strong resistance to high priced sources. The prices of styrene butadiene and butadiene rubber slightly declined during the week. The price of raw material butadiene continues to decline, and the cost support for styrene butadiene rubber weakens. Downstream tire production has recently declined, weakening the support for rigid demand for styrene butadiene rubber; The production of styrene butadiene rubber is at a low level, and the inventory pressure of enterprises is not significant. The demand performance is weak, and the demand support for the butadiene market is insufficient.

On Thursday (August 8th), the closing price of butadiene in foreign markets was partially raised: among them, the FOB price in South Korea was reported at 1515-1525 US dollars/ton, unchanged; China CFR reported 1515-1525 US dollars/ton, unchanged; European butadiene FOB Rotterdam closed at $1175-1185/ton, unchanged; FD Northwest Europe closed at 1095-1105 euros/ton, up 5 euros/ton.

Market forecast: In the near future, there will be a significant resumption of production in the butadiene plant, and with the subsequent increase in load on the supply side, the market expects a relatively loose supply in the future. From the perspective of demand, downstream demand has always maintained strong support and price trends are weak. Downstream synthetic rubber companies have been affected by declining profits, and their purchasing enthusiasm has been significantly weakened recently. As a result, the market atmosphere is more cautious. Overall, the recent performance of the butadiene market has been weak in both supply and demand, and it is expected to maintain a stable, moderate, and weak trend in the short term. There may still be room for further decline, and the focus will be on downstream market reception in the future.

1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the average price of ammonium sulfate in the domestic market on August 8th was 921 yuan/ton, which is stable compared to the average price of 921 yuan/ton on August 1st.

2、 Market analysis

This week, the domestic ammonium sulfate market prices fluctuated slightly. The operating rate of coking enterprises is stable, and the operating rate of internal level enterprises is relatively high. The enthusiasm for downstream procurement is poor, and the market trading atmosphere is limited. At present, there is a large inventory in the port, and the export market has not improved yet. As of August 8th, the mainstream ex factory quotation for coking grade ammonium sulfate in Shandong region is around 880 yuan/ton. Domestic grade ammonium sulfate, the mainstream ex factory quotation in Shandong region is around 910-950 yuan/ton.

3、 Future forecast

An ammonium sulfate analyst from Shengyi Society believes that the ammonium sulfate market has experienced narrow fluctuations in recent days. At present, the domestic and international market conditions are not good, and the market is mainly cautious and wait-and-see. It is expected that the domestic price of ammonium sulfate will weaken and fluctuate in the short term.

Recently (8.1-8.7), the dichloromethane market continued its upward trend in July and continued to rise. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of August 7th, the average price of dichloromethane bulk water in Shandong Province was 2670 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.89% from 2595 yuan/ton on August 1st. The cost of raw materials has been reduced, and methanol has been sorted and operated at a low level, while liquid chlorine prices have been operated at a low level; The operation of methane chloride units has slightly decreased, downstream demand for procurement has increased, and the inventory of dichloromethane in enterprises has decreased. Due to the impact of low inventory, enterprises have raised the ex factory price of dichloromethane. As of August 7th, the mainstream ex factory price of dichloromethane in Shandong region is around 2660-2680 yuan/ton.

Recently (8.1-8.7), there has been a slight decrease in domestic methane chloride production. The Dongying Huatai plant resumed operation on August 6th, which may increase market supply.

Cost reduction is expected to increase the profit margin of enterprises. Recently, the raw material methanol has been operating at a low to medium level. According to the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, as of August 7th, the spot price of methanol was 2475.83 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.36% from 2510 yuan/ton on the 1st. The liquid chlorine market is weakening and prices are running at a low level. As of August 7th, the acceptance price of liquid chlorine tank trucks in Shandong region is around -400 yuan/ton, which is lower than the -200 yuan/ton at the end of July.

The downstream R 32 factory is arranging production according to quota, with normal progress. Downstream demand remains stable, and the tight supply situation continues. Market offers remain strong at high levels.

The methane chloride data analyst from Shengyi Society believes that although the cost is low, the market supply is tight, and the inventory of enterprises is not high. With the resumption of normal operation of maintenance equipment, it is not conducive to long-term price support. In the short term, enterprise quotations are firm, and the price center remains stable or upward. In the future, attention should be paid to the supply situation in the field.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of August 6th, the quoted price of battery grade lithium carbonate was 87600 yuan/ton, a decrease of 24% from the same period in May when it was 116200 yuan/ton, and a decrease of 68.83% from the same period last year; The quotation for industrial grade lithium carbonate is 85000 yuan/ton, a decrease of 67.137% compared to the same period last year.

The continuous decline in the price of lithium carbonate in the past four months means that the situation of oversupply is becoming increasingly severe. The estimated total supply of lithium carbonate in July is 84455 tons, with a total demand of 67209 tons and a supply-demand gap of 17246 tons.

Supply side: 2024 is the period of concentrated release of global lithium mineral resources. Recently, the latest auction price of Australian mines was less than $760/ton, which translates to a price of around 73000-75000 yuan/ton for lithium carbonate, lowering market expectations for the price of lithium carbonate. Despite the continuous decline in lithium ore prices, lithium salt companies have not engaged in large-scale production cuts or shutdowns. It is expected that the monthly production of lithium carbonate will maintain a positive growth trend, and the pressure of oversupply will continue to intensify.

Demand side: The production schedule of battery factories in August is basically the same as that in July, with limited demand increment. But the pressure on battery inventory has slowed down, which will have a certain boost to the demand for lithium carbonate.

Business Society’s lithium carbonate data analyst believes that external mining and low-grade lithium extraction enterprises will gradually cease production as the degree of cost inversion deepens, but the impact on the overall supply scale may be limited, and the situation of overcapacity is difficult to improve in the short term. The price of lithium carbonate will still further decline.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the domestic natural rubber spot market has fluctuated narrowly recently (7.29-8.5). As of August 5th, the spot rubber market in China’s natural rubber market was around 14069 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.41% from 14011 yuan/ton on July 29th. On the one hand, there is a narrow fluctuation in raw material prices, and on the other hand, downstream production has slightly rebounded, mainly supporting the demand for natural rubber.

On the one hand, in recent days (7.29-8.5), the supply of raw materials in domestic and foreign raw material production areas has been slow to improve, and the prices of some natural rubber raw materials have slightly increased, providing weak support for the domestic natural rubber market in terms of cost. As of August 5th, the price of Thai glue was 63.50 baht/kg, slightly higher than the price at the end of July; As of August 5th, the purchase price of state-owned and gold rubber water-based concentrated latex raw materials in Hainan production area is around 13400 yuan/ton, which has been stable recently.

On the other hand, the speed of natural rubber inventory turnover has slowed down. As of July 28, 2024, the total inventory of Tianjiao bonded and general trade in Qingdao area was 474400 tons, a decrease of 0.36% compared to the previous period.

Partial equipment maintenance has been completed, and downstream all steel tire production has slightly rebounded. Faced with the strong demand support of the natural rubber market, downstream inquiries are cautious, and natural rubber prices have slightly adjusted. As of July 31st, the operating load of semi steel tires in domestic tire enterprises was around 7.9%; The operating load of all steel tires in tire enterprises in Shandong region is about 5.6%.

Market forecast: Currently, the supply of raw materials both domestically and internationally is increasing slowly, and the overall price of natural rubber raw materials is consolidating narrowly; Downstream tire companies have seen a slight increase in production, but remain cautious about purchasing high priced goods; Overall, it is expected that the natural rubber market will continue to consolidate weakly in the short term.