According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, domestic lithium carbonate operated weakly in early March. As of March 5th, the average price of battery grade lithium carbonate was 76700 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.66% from 78800 yuan/ton at the beginning of the year and a decrease of 28.58% from 107400 yuan/ton in the same period last year; The average price of industrial grade lithium carbonate is 74500 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.49% from 76400 yuan/ton at the beginning of the year and a decrease of 24.29% from 98400 yuan/ton in the same period last year.

The destocking cycle has ended, and the situation of oversupply is difficult to change

At present, the operating rate of lithium carbonate enterprises is about 45%, which has increased compared to before the holiday. The inventory of lithium carbonate has ended and continues to accumulate, resulting in a serious overall supply-demand imbalance.

Downstream demand is improving, but overall growth rate is slowing down

The production of ternary materials and lithium iron phosphate has increased after the holiday. Although the first quarter was a low season for energy storage demand, some battery cell factories stocked up in advance, driving up the demand for lithium carbonate and increasing the operating rate of lithium iron phosphate enterprises.

Market forecast: The situation of oversupply of lithium carbonate is difficult to change, and it is difficult for the demand side to balance the pressure on the supply side. The upward momentum is insufficient, and it is expected that lithium carbonate will fluctuate weakly in the short term.

The price of isooctanol first rose and then fell in February

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of February 28th, the price of isooctanol was 7666.67 yuan/ton, which first increased and then decreased by 1.71% compared to the price of 7800 yuan/ton on February 1st; Compared to February 15th, the price of isooctanol decreased by 4.37% to 8016.67 yuan/ton. After the holiday, the demand for isooctanol has decreased due to restocking; With the end of replenishment, the price of plasticizers has fluctuated and fallen, and the demand for isooctanol has decreased, increasing the downward pressure on isooctanol.

Downstream plasticizer DOP prices first rose and then fell in February

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of February 28th, the DOP price was 8326.25 yuan/ton, which first increased and then decreased by 2.92% compared to the DOP price of 8576.25 yuan/ton on February 1st. After the holiday, the inventory will be replenished, and the price of plasticizer DOP will fluctuate and rise; With the end of replenishment, the price of plasticizers fluctuated and fell; The production of plasticizer DOP enterprises has fallen, and the supply of plasticizer DOP has tightened; The price of isooctanol first rose and then fell, and the downward pressure on isooctanol increased.

Future expectations

According to the data analyst of Business Society’s octanol product, the downstream demand for isooctanol increased first and then decreased in February, and the price of isooctanol first rose and then fell. In the future, the operating load of plasticizer DOP enterprises will decrease, the production of plasticizers will decrease, and the demand for isooctanol will decrease. It is expected that the price of isooctanol will fluctuate and fall in the future.

The domestic fluorite price trend rose in February, with an average price of 3660 yuan/ton as of the end of the month, an increase of 1.21% from the beginning price of 3616.25 yuan/ton, and a year-on-year increase of 9.25%.

Supply side: Limited mining operations and tight supply of fluorite

The current situation of the game in the domestic fluorite industry still exists. Overall, the operating rate of enterprises has not changed much. Upstream mining is tight, backward mines will continue to be eliminated, and new mines will be added. Mineral investigation work is still difficult. In addition, national departments need to rectify fluorite mines, and fluorite mining enterprises are facing increasingly strict safety and environmental protection requirements. The difficulty of operating fluorite mines has increased, and the shortage of raw materials has limited the operation of fluorite enterprises. The supply of fluorite sources is still tight, and the inventory of fluorite enterprises is low. Some fluorite manufacturers are gradually recovering, and the fluorite supply is still tight. In February, the fluorite market trend rose.

Demand side: Hydrofluoric acid prices rise, refrigerant market rises

In February, the domestic price of hydrofluoric acid slightly increased, and the mainstream price for hydrofluoric acid in various regions of China was negotiated at 11000-11500 yuan/ton. The downstream hydrofluoric acid units are still shut down, and there is little change in the spot supply of hydrofluoric acid. Manufacturers mainly purchase hydrofluoric acid on demand, and the overall production of hydrofluoric acid remains at more than 50%. Fluorine enterprises maintain essential orders, mainly consuming inventory. The market price trend of hydrofluoric acid is rising, and the price of fluorite is affected by this news.

The downstream refrigerant market is on the rise, coupled with the strengthening of terminal policies in the refrigerant industry, demand is expected to achieve substantial improvement. Fluorine chemical enterprises within quota control have strong confidence in raising prices in the refrigerant market. Currently, the main trend in the foreign trade market is price increases, and upstream products are mainly purchased on demand. The trend of refrigerant market is rising, which has led to an increase in domestic fluorite market prices.

In addition to the traditional demand in the refrigerant industry, fluorite, as an important mineral raw material for modern industry, is constantly developing in emerging fields. It is also applied in strategic emerging industries such as new energy and new materials, as well as in national defense, nuclear industry and other fields, including lithium hexafluorophosphate, PVDF、 Graphite negative electrodes, photovoltaic panels, etc., have received certain support in the application of fluorite due to the demand for new energy and semiconductors.

Market forecast: In the near future, it is difficult to improve the supply of domestic fluorite mines, and some mines have stopped production for safety inspections. The tight supply of fluorite mines is a major positive support for the fluorite market. In addition, the downstream refrigerant market is expected to rise, and terminal demand is expected to increase. Overall, the domestic fluorite market price has an upward trend.

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, the magnesium ingot market in Shaanxi Province fell this week (2.24-2.28), with an average market price of 16083 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week and 15800 yuan/ton at the end of the week, a decrease of 1.76%.

This week’s market analysis

In the last week of this month, due to unfavorable factors such as the lack of significant improvement in demand and rapid decline in raw material prices, magnesium prices fell faster than expected.

The price of magnesium ingots continues to bottom out to 15700-15800 yuan/ton. Affected by the recent rapid decline in magnesium prices, downstream enterprises have started phased replenishment operations based on cost optimization considerations. The current price is approaching the cost red line of most factories, and some factories plan to shut down.

supply end

The overall supply of the factory remains stable. However, due to the sharp decline in coal prices, the blue charcoal market has suffered significant impacts. This change has led to serious losses for factories, and most factories have a strong willingness to raise prices, hoping to maintain price stability to reduce losses. Unfortunately, due to the significant weakening of downstream demand, factories have to adopt a price reduction strategy to promote shipments under the dual pressure of inventory pressure and capital flow demand.

The price of raw material ferrosilicon has temporarily remained stable.

demand side

Currently, downstream demand remains weak and there are no clear signs of recovery. Against the backdrop of continued weakness in magnesium prices, downstream companies generally adopted a wait-and-see attitude at the beginning of the week, with low purchasing intentions, further exacerbating the market’s cold atmosphere. However, with the continuous decline in magnesium prices, as the weekend approached, magnesium prices had reached the psychological bottom of downstream enterprises, which to some extent stimulated the growth of procurement demand and led to a rebound in market transactions. However, overall, downstream demand remains weak, and the supply-demand imbalance in the market remains prominent.

comprehensive analysis

The recovery of downstream demand has not yet formed a clear and stable expectation, and coal prices have not shown significant signs of rebound. Affected by this, factories are generally facing losses, serious inventory backlog problems, and a pessimistic attitude towards the future market. As the temperature gradually warms up and the seasonality of industrial production activities weakens, it is expected that multiple factories will choose to shut down for maintenance in early March to reduce losses and adjust production pace, which will lead to a significant reduction in the supply of coal and magnesium. With weakened supply, magnesium prices are expected to slightly rebound next week.

In February, the domestic phenol market rose more than fell. According to data monitored by Business Society, the domestic phenol market price was 7770 yuan/ton on February 1st and 7948 yuan/ton on February 27th, an increase of 2.28%.

Returning to the market after the Spring Festival, the cost side price is relatively strong. With the support of the cost side, phenol opened high, and traders were actively pushing up the market. However, due to the sluggish demand side, the market turned weak and slightly fell in the past two days.

With the news of the maintenance of the second phase phenol ketone unit at Zhejiang Petrochemical and inquiries from downstream demand, the phenol market has once again been pulled up, and the focus has once again shifted upwards. However, some terminal factories resumed work relatively late or had some inventory before the holiday. Due to slow demand recovery, the phenol market experienced a slight decline again after rising.

As the end of the month approaches, the overall monthly average price is relatively high, and traders have limited room to make concessions. Moreover, most traders have little pressure to ship at the end of the month, and the market has once again risen slightly. In summary, the domestic phenol market experienced ups and downs in February, with an overall bullish trend and less downward trend.

Sinopec Huadong phenol is listed at a price range of 7900-7950 yuan/ton. Sinopec North China phenol is listed at a price of 7900 yuan/ton. As of the 27th, the phenol offers in various mainstream markets across the country are as follows:

Domestic enterprise installation situation in February: Huizhou Zhongxin Phase I phenol ketone installation will be shut down on November 1st, and the restart time is yet to be determined; The Guangxi Huayi phenol ketone plant will shut down on February 4, 2025, and is expected to undergo a maintenance period of 2 months; The phenol ketone unit of Ningbo Taihua will be shut down for maintenance from February 12th to February 22nd; The second phase phenol ketone unit of Zhejiang Petrochemical will be shut down for maintenance from February 12th to February 20th; The Shanghai Xisafen ketone plant was shut down on February 25th and is expected to resume in early March. Details are being followed up.

Business Society expects that the phenol market in March is still worth looking forward to. On the supply side, the replenishment of cargo in February decreased compared to expectations. As of now, Jiangyin Port has a stock of 20000 tons, and 8 sets of equipment have been repaired in February, with an expected loss of 90000 tons. The industry’s operating rate is relatively low; On the demand side, downstream demand increased in March compared to February; Considering that phenol ketone enterprises are still operating at a loss line, it is expected that the phenol market will continue to operate strongly in the later stage, but attention still needs to be paid to the impact of costs on the phenol market.