I. price data
This week (12.9-12.13) the price of refined petroleum coke rose slightly. According to the data in the business club’s large list, the average mainstream price of petroleum coke products of domestic refineries was 1007.50 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week and 1022.50 yuan / ton at the end of the week, up 15 yuan / ton in the week and down 1.49% in the week.
On December 13, the petroleum coke commodity index was 79.53, unchanged from yesterday, 48.88% lower than 155.59 (2018-01-25), the highest point in the cycle, and 18.90% higher than 66.89, the lowest point on March 28, 2016. (Note: cycle refers to 2012-09-30 to now)
II. Analysis of influencing factors
| PVA 1799 (PVA BF17) |
Product: this week, the delivery of refined petroleum coke was stable, and the price of some refineries increased slightly. This week, affected by the heavy fog weather, refinery shipments have been hindered.
Industry chain: upstream: according to the monitoring of the business agency, WTI crude oil in the United States was $59.20/barrel at the beginning of the week, and $59.18/barrel at the end of the week, with a weekly increase or decrease of – 0.03%; Brent crude oil was $64.39/barrel at the beginning of the week, and $64.20/barrel at the end of the week, with a weekly increase or decrease of – 0.30%. The results of OPEC production reduction meeting exceeded the market expectation, which was good for the oil market, EIA inventory data was completely negative, and the international crude oil market was in high volatility. Downstream: the shipment of calcined coke is not good, the enterprises mainly clear inventory, the market performance of electrolytic aluminum is average, the price of graphite electrode is stable, and the policy of limiting production and production in heating season is implemented in November. According to the data of business agency, the average price of domestic aluminum ingot Market as of December 13 is 14023.33 yuan / ton.
| PVA |
Industry: according to the price monitoring of the business association, in the 49th week of 2019 (12.9-12.13), there are four kinds of commodities rising month on month in the energy sector, the top three commodities are petroleum coke (1.49%), fuel oil (0.66%) and liquefied gas (0.59%). There are 10 kinds of commodities falling on a month on month basis, and the top three products are MTBE (- 3.90%), LNG (- 3.03%) and methanol (- 1.51%). This week’s average was – 0.52%.
III. future forecast
Analysts of petroleum coke of business association predict that the market price of Petroleum Coke will rise slightly this week, mainly due to the increase of downstream inquiry, the reduction of refinery inventory pressure, and the reduction of sulfur content in some refineries. It is expected that the price of Petroleum Coke will rise slightly in the near future, and the price range may be around 900-1100 yuan / ton.
| POLYVINYL ALCOHOL |