Price trend:
According to statistics, in 2019, the domestic market price trend of p-xylene dropped sharply. The average price at the beginning of the year was 8500 yuan / ton, the average price at the end of the year was 6700 yuan / ton, and the annual decline was 21.18%. From the price trend chart, it can be seen that the highest point of domestic PX price appeared in the first ten days of March, the highest price was 9000 yuan / ton, the lowest price appeared in September, and the lowest price was 6600 yuan / ton. From a comprehensive view of the whole year, The domestic market price of p-xylene is in a low trend, and the price trend of PX market is affected by domestic and foreign factors.
In 2019, China’s total PX production capacity will be 20.365 million tons, and 6.1 million tons of new domestic production capacity will be added. However, the annual operating rate will be about 7.3%, and the total output will be about 15 million tons. However, the total import volume will be up to 14 million tons in 2019. Overall, the external dependence of PX will decline. In 2019, the external dependence will be 48%, and the domestic PX self-sufficiency rate will rise significantly due to the production of new domestic devices, which is 40% higher than that in 2018 Up to 52%, but PX price is also the most important factor influencing the market price of p-xylene in China.
According to the annual domestic market price trend chart and PX external market price trend chart, the PX market price trend can be divided into two stages: the first stage is from the beginning of the year to the end of March, when the PX market price trend is rising; the second stage is from the beginning of April to the end of the year, when the PX market price gradually drops.
The first stage is from the beginning of the year to the end of March. The price trend of domestic PX market is gradually rising, and the domestic price is rising from 8500 yuan / ton to 9000 yuan / ton in March. In terms of product supply, the domestic PX operation rate is more than 80%, the domestic units are normally started, and the domestic market price of p-xylene is up 5.3%. The external price of PX rose from $1000 / T CFR Taiwan by $100 / T to $1100 / T CFR Taiwan. The external price rise is a major support for the domestic p-xylene market, and the domestic p-xylene market price rose. From the perspective of the industrial chain, the price of crude oil market in the first stage rose sharply, from $45 / barrel at the beginning of the year to $60 / barrel. The sharp rise of crude oil price brought favorable cost support to the domestic market of p-xylene, and the price trend of domestic market of p-xylene rose. The price trend of the downstream PTA market slightly increased, and the PTA market price increased by 8%. In addition, the first quarter is the stock stage of the textile industry, the downstream textile industry has a positive stock, and the demand for the upstream has increased. The domestic PTA operation rate has gradually increased, with the PTA operation rate around 80%, polyester operation rate around 80%, Jiangsu and Zhejiang textile operation rate around 75%. The higher operation level of downstream PTA Market and polyester industry is a good support for PX market price, and PX market price has increased.
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The second stage is from the beginning of April to the end of April. The PX market price gradually declines. The domestic market price drops sharply from 9000 yuan / ton to 6700 yuan / ton, a decrease of 25.5%. The sharp decline of the domestic market price of p-xylene is mainly due to the sharp increase of domestic supply, the lack of obvious improvement of downstream demand, and the continuous decline of the domestic price of p-xylene. In the second stage, the domestic PX operation rate is less than 70%, a 800000 ton production line is started for Tenglong aromatics plant, 600000 tons of new capacity for Hongrun chemical industry, 1 million tons of new capacity for Hainan refining and chemical industry, 4.5 million tons of new capacity for Hengli petrochemical industry, 2.25 million tons of new capacity for operation, normal operation of Yangzi Petrochemical PX plant, stable operation of Jinling Petrochemical plant, full load operation of Qingdao Lidong plant, Qilu petrochemical industry The operation of the unit is normal, and the start-up of Urumqi petrochemical plant is about 50%. The supply of p-xylene in China has increased significantly, and the market price of p-xylene in China has continued to decline. According to the overall capacity of Asia, PX capacity is in the stage of supply exceeding demand, and the market price of PX keeps falling. During this period, the international crude oil price fluctuated at a low level, and the WTI crude oil price has been hovering around 50-60 US dollars / barrel. The international crude oil price fluctuation situation has limited support for the price cost of PX market, and the PX price keeps falling. The external price of PX has been continuously reduced under the influence of crude oil price. The external price of PX has declined from 1100 US dollars / ton to 800 US dollars / ton CFR in Taiwan. The external price of PX has been significantly reduced by 300 US dollars / ton. The external price has a certain guiding effect on the domestic market of p-xylene. The external price is still highly dependent on the external market of p-xylene. The external price decline is a major negative impact on the domestic market of PX. In addition, the price of PTA Market in the lower reaches has declined significantly. The price of PTA Market in China has declined from 6600 yuan / ton to 5000 yuan / ton, with a decline rate of 26%. The operating rate has also increased to some extent. The operating rate of PTA is about 90%, polyester is about 90%, and Jiangsu and Zhejiang textile is about 75%. The lower market in the lower reaches has a certain negative impact on the PX market in the upper reaches, which is affected by China’s continuous decline Under the influence of domestic and foreign negative factors, the domestic market price of p-xylene continues to decline.
From the perspective of PX products in 2019, the total capacity of PX in China is 20.365 million tons, with 6.1 million tons of new capacity in China and 1.5 million tons of new capacity in overseas projects. In November, the products of overseas projects will be delivered to China. The statistics of new capacity are as follows:
It is clear from the above table that domestic production capacity has increased substantially and domestic supply has increased. PX annual operating rate is about 7.30%, annual output is expected to be about 15 million tons, domestic p-xylene spot supply is still insufficient, domestic p-xylene still has a high degree of dependence on foreign countries, which makes domestic p-xylene pricing greatly affected by foreign countries. Statistics on the start-up of various domestic p-xylene units are as follows:
It is clearly shown in the chart that one line of overseas domestic Fuhai innovation plant will be restarted and started in 2019, and the plant has been shut down for three years; Urumqi petrochemical plant will start construction in about 50% of the year due to raw material problems. In 2019, the new production capacity was put into operation in the second half of the year, resulting in a substantial increase in domestic supply, a substantial decrease in the domestic market price of p-xylene, and a significant decline in the profit of PX products in 2019. The profit trend of production process with mixed xylene as raw material is shown in the figure below:
There are two production processes for PX, one is naphtha as the main raw material, the other is MX as the main raw material. In 2019, there is still profit in PX production with naphtha as raw material, but the profit in PX production with MX as raw material is significantly lower. Before May, the profit was at the level of 200 US dollars / ton. However, with the gradual release of domestic p-xylene production capacity, the profit of PX also declined unilaterally. In the second half of the year, the profit of PX is almost at the level of loss of 50 US dollars / ton. As a whole, in 2019, the production profit of mx-px changes from profit to loss.
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Part of PX in China comes from the separation of mixed xylene. Crude oil price and domestic mixed xylene price are also the factors influencing the price trend of domestic market of p-xylene. According to the inspection of business agency, the price trend of crude oil market rose from January to April, but the international crude oil price was in the range of 50-60 USD / barrel since May. Crude oil price fluctuation has limited support for p-xylene Lower prices. According to the xylene trend chart, the market price of mixed xylene in 2019 is significantly higher, with an overall increase of 21.23%. In the first half of the year, the price of mixed xylene fluctuated, but PX still has production profits, but with the sharp increase of mixed xylene price, the production profits of PX are greatly reduced.
97% of PX in China is used to produce PTA. Comparing the price trend of px-pta in 2019, it can be seen from the figure above that the price trend of PX and PTA in the whole year is quite similar, and the market price of PX and PTA in China has declined. However, with the low fluctuation of international crude oil price, the market price of PX and PTA is at a low level. The textile industry is in a weak state in the second half of 2019, and the textile industry is in a weak state in the second half of 2019 The industry market is not optimistic, PTA market price is significantly lower, the continuous decline of downstream market has a certain negative impact on the upstream PX market, and the PX market price is significantly lower in 2019.
Future forecast:
Chen Ling, an analyst at PX business club, believes that the PX market in Asia will continue to be weak in 2020, with overcapacity in Asia, weak price trend in Asia’s PX market becoming more clear, and huge upward pressure. With the release of new domestic production capacity, the supply continues to increase greatly. Although there are still new devices put into production in domestic PTA enterprises next year, the demand has increased, but the new PX production capacity is larger, including the 4 million tons / year PX device put into production of Zhejiang Petrochemical, becoming the second largest PX leading enterprise in China. The PX self-sufficiency rate gradually increases, the domestic import volume will be greatly reduced, and the domestic supply and demand will be improved, but the PX in Asia will be integrated The supply of PX has been in excess. Japan, South Korea and other PX exporting countries are under great pressure. It is very likely that they will sell their profits to China and compete with domestic enterprises for prices. Most of the new PX devices are px-pta-polyester industrial chains, and the profits of the industrial chain have changed from PX to PTA. Even though PX production losses will remain high, PX will remain weak in 2020, with low profits or even losses It will become a normal situation. The domestic market price of p-xylene is difficult to rise. The average price in the domestic market is about 7000 yuan / ton. It is expected that the domestic high price will appear in the autumn sales peak season of textiles, and the domestic market price of p-xylene is 8000 yuan / ton. However, with the continuous release of new domestic production capacity, it is expected that the domestic low price will also be about 6000 yuan / ton.
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