In 2019, hydrogen peroxide experienced two big ups and downs. After the big price rise and ushered in a big fall. Overall, compared with the big fall in 2018, the price of hydrogen peroxide in 2019 is still rising at a high level. It is still a certain distance from the high price of 2000 yuan at the end of 2017 and 1600 yuan at the beginning of 2018. In 2019, the highest price of hydrogen peroxide broke through 1300 yuan / ton, with a maximum increase of nearly 40%. Two rounds of declines dragged down the increase, and the overall increase of hydrogen peroxide in the whole year exceeded 20%.
In 2019, the trend of hydrogen peroxide market presents M-type trend, with two rounds of roller coaster market. It can be roughly divided into two stages, the two stages are basically similar, both of which show a sharp rise followed by a sharp fall. The first stage: from January to July, the price of the first round of roller coaster rose first and then fell, with an overall increase of 1.94%. The second stage: from August to December, in the second round of roller coaster, the price rose first and then fell. The overall increase was higher than that in the first round, up 16.79%.
The first stage: from January to July, the average price of hydrogen peroxide was 860 yuan / ton on January 1, and 876 yuan / ton on July 31, with a price increase of 1.94%.
In January, the performance of hydrogen peroxide was poor, and the price dropped sharply. The main quotation was 750-850 yuan / ton, and the price dropped 100 yuan / ton. After the Spring Festival, hydrogen peroxide started to rise, mainly due to the environmental warning, the manufacturer shut down, the supply decreased, and the terminal demand improved in March and April. The manufacturers raised their prices one after another. The price of hydrogen peroxide continued to rise to 1200 yuan / ton in the middle of April, and the price per ton rose nearly 500 yuan, or nearly 50%.
After the first round of sharp rise, the prices fell one after another. Part of the manufacturers shut down for maintenance, and hydrogen peroxide restarted the rising market, which continued to run at a high level. At the end of May, the high platform diving market was started, which fell to July. The price fell back to 1000 yuan / ton, down 20%. In July, the hydrogen peroxide market experienced ups and downs. In July, when the demand was low, the price rose to 1000 yuan, but the terminal market continued to be low. Near the end of the month, the soaring market was hit back to its original shape, fell sharply, to 800 yuan overnight, and fell by 11% in a single day, down 9% from the beginning of the month.
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The second stage: from August to December, the average price of hydrogen peroxide was 893 yuan / ton on August 1, and 1043 yuan / ton on December 26, with a price increase of 16.79%.
In August, the supply of hydrogen peroxide was tight, and the market rose all the way. A set of hydrogen peroxide device was shut down in Luxi, Shandong Province. In the middle of the year, there was a typhoon and rainstorm in Shandong Province. Some hydrogen peroxide manufacturers began to reduce production and even stop for maintenance. The supply declined, and the manufacturers increased the price of hydrogen peroxide one after another. The price rose 22.7% in August. In September, hydrogen peroxide started to decline, with the price dropping 6.4%.
In October, the hydrogen peroxide manufacturers stopped for maintenance one after another, and the manufacturers in Tianjin, Shanxi, Shandong and other places carried out parking maintenance one after another. Hydrogen peroxide ended the depressed market in September, rebounded to the bottom, ushered in a sustained surge in the market, singing all the way from the end of the holiday to October 22, the price soared more than 30%. From October 23, hydrogen peroxide dived into the water again, falling all the way to December 26. The overall price of hydrogen peroxide fell from 1500 yuan / ton to 1000 yuan / ton, with a drop of more than 30%. As much as it rose, so much as it fell.
In 2019, the sharp rise and fall of hydrogen peroxide are mainly affected by supply and demand. In terms of supply, the annual new capacity of hydrogen peroxide is as follows:
downstream
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Caprolactam: in the first half of 2019, the caprolactam market was basically consistent with the hydrogen peroxide Market, rising first and then falling, with an overall decline of 6.98%. They all started to rise in February, and continued to rise in March and April. In early May, they reached an annual high of 13950 yuan / ton, up 10.28% from January 1. Then it fell rapidly, falling nearly 16% as of June 30. In the second half of the year, the market trend of caprolactam and hydrogen peroxide was similar, but the increase did not reach the height of hydrogen peroxide, with an overall decline of 8.12%. It is also a rising trend in the third quarter and a sharp decline in the fourth quarter. The only difference is that caprolactam rose in December, while hydrogen peroxide still fell.
Papermaking industry: in the first quarter of 2019, driven by the peak demand season, the price of corrugated base paper reached the highest point in the whole year, and then continued to fall in the second and third quarters, forming the lowest point of corrugated base paper price in the whole year, which was mainly affected by the single factor of high cost and weak demand support. Although after the “golden nine silver ten” market atmosphere, the price showed all the way up, as of the end of the year, the price of corrugated base paper was still not higher than the price level at the beginning of the year. In 2019, the paper industry performed generally, with limited support for hydrogen peroxide Market. When the price of hydrogen peroxide rose sharply, the paper industry is still in a cold winter.
Outlook for the future
According to the hydrogen peroxide analyst of the business club, there is less difference between the new capacity and the removal capacity of hydrogen peroxide in 2019. From the perspective of supply, hydrogen peroxide still has room to rise. In 2020, the hydrogen peroxide market will still change with seasonal demand, and it is still expected to rise sharply. This year’s terminal paper industry performance is average. In 2020, the hydrogen peroxide market may continue to rise, but it is hard to reach the height of rise in 2019.
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