Positive factors support the rise of p-xylene price trend

Domestic price trend:

It can be seen from the p-xylene trend chart that the price of p-xylene rose in May. As of the end of the month, the domestic ex factory price of p-xylene was 9900 yuan / ton, up 11.24% compared with the price of 8900 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month, up 54.69% year-on-year. Affected by the positive support, the price trend of domestic PX market rose.

In May, the domestic paraxylene supply was normal, the domestic PX operating rate was more than 60%, Sinochem Hongrun Petrochemical 600000 ton unit operated stably, Yangzi petrochemical unit operated stably, Pengzhou petrochemical unit operated stably, Yangzi Petrochemical PX unit operated normally, Jinling Petrochemical unit operated stably, Qingdao Lidong unit operated at full load, Qilu petrochemical unit operated stably, and Urumqi petrochemical unit started at about 50%, The domestic p-xylene supply is normal, but the operation of overseas units declines, and the domestic p-xylene price rises due to the impact of crude oil shocks. In May, a deflagration accident occurred in a unit in South Korea, resulting in a decrease in the supply of paraxylene in Asia, and a decrease in the supply of imported goods led to a rise in the price of PX. In May, the price of international crude oil rose, and the price of PX rose. As of the 27th, the closing prices were $1264-1266 / T FOB South Korea and $1292-1294 / T CFR China. Recently, the operating rate of PX units in Asia has declined. On the whole, the operating rate of paraxylene units in Asia is less than 60%, the supply of PX in Asia is tight, the closing price of PX in the external market has risen, and the domestic market price of paraxylene has risen sharply.

In May, the international crude oil price rose sharply by 9.91%. The crude oil price experienced a sharp rise and fall. As of the end of the month, the settlement price of the main contract of WTI crude oil futures in the United States was $115.07/barrel, and the settlement price of the main contract of Brent crude oil futures was $115.56/barrel. With the arrival of the peak summer season in the United States, the demand expectation has boosted the oil price. In addition, the European Union has launched negotiations on whether to completely ban the import of Russian oil. OPEC will adhere to the oil production agreement reached last year at the meeting on June 2, increasing the daily output by 432000 barrels in July, rejecting Western calls for faster production increase to reduce soaring oil prices. As the epidemic situation in Asia gradually eases, demand expectations tend to improve. However, the economic recession, the tightening of monetary policy and the spread of monkeypox virus have increased the uncertainty of the oil demand outlook, which has led to pressure on the oil price to a certain extent. On the whole, the crude oil price rose sharply in May, which has affected the price trend of paraxylene.

The downstream PTA market price rose sharply in May. As of the 30th, the average PTA market price was 6850-6900 yuan / ton, up 6.73% in May. In May, the domestic PTA plant was restarted and overhauled at the same time, and the overall industry started up slightly. Up to now, the operating load has increased to more than 76%. However, the overall PTA spot circulation is not large. Under the background of low PTA processing fee and production loss, the possibility of unplanned device maintenance cannot be ruled out. Under the guidance of buying up sentiment, the downstream market made up an appropriate amount of positions, and the polyester start-up also increased to around 78%. In terms of prices, affected by the boost of raw materials in May, the prices of downstream polyester factories rose by 5-8%. In Jiangsu and Zhejiang provinces, the startup rate of looms has rebounded significantly due to the warmer orders. Especially in Xiaoshao, Haining, Changshu and other places, the factory’s order receiving rate improved moderately, which was better than that in April. However, at present, some domestic trade orders are improving, while foreign trade orders are still not improving. The downstream market is good for the domestic paraxylene market. Affected by the positive support, the domestic paraxylene market price trend is rising.

Chen Ling, PX analyst of business club, believes that the current crude oil cost is still supported. In addition, the start-up of downstream polyester manufacturers in the terminal market has been improved, and the PTA price trend has risen. It is expected that there is still room for rise in the market price trend of paraxylene in the later period.