Summary of precious metal spot price trend
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According to the data of business agency, the average price of silver market in early trading on July 21 was 4096.67 yuan / kg, down 6.72% from the average price of 4391.67 yuan / kg in the spot market at the beginning of the month (July 1); Compared with the spot market price at the beginning of the year (January 1), the average price in early trading was 4770 yuan / kg, a decrease of 14.12%.
On July 21, the spot market price of gold was 371.95 yuan / g, a daily decrease of 0.18%, which was 4.71% lower than the early average price of 390.34 yuan / g in the spot market at the beginning of the month (July 1); Compared with the spot market price at the beginning of the year (January 1), the average price in early trading was 372.37 yuan / kg, a decrease of 0.11%.
Comparison of precious metal gold and silver price trends in recent 1 year
In the long term, the price trend of precious metals has a good convergence, the long-term trend is basically the same, and the amplitude is slightly different.
Price trend of precious metals and crude oil
Policy Overview
1. Domestic news
The central bank conducted a 7-day reverse repurchase operation of 3 billion yuan on the 21st, with the bid winning interest rate of 2.10%, unchanged from the previous period. Due to the maturity of RMB 3billion reverse repurchase today, zero delivery and zero withdrawal were achieved on that day.
The latest loan market quotation rate (LPR) published by the National Interbank Funding Center authorized by the central bank remains unchanged for both 1-year and 5-year maturities.
2. International news
The Bank of Japan’s core inflation expectation for fiscal 2022 was 2.3% (previously 1.9%). The core inflation expectation in fy2024 was 1.3% (previously 1.1%); The Bank of Japan lowered its GDP growth forecast for fiscal year 2022. GDP growth in fy2022 is expected to be 2.4% (previously 2.9%). GDP growth in fy2023 is expected to be 2.0% (previously 1.9%). GDP growth in fy2024 is expected to be 1.3% (previously 1.1%).
The chairman of RBA Lowe said that the inflation data in June rose further and is expected to rise again. The Committee expects that further interest rate hikes will be required in the coming months. The era of ultra-low interest rates in Australia has passed. He estimated that the neutral nominal interest rate is at least 2.5%. The Committee will continue to make decisions based on future data. But if the inflation rate is close to 6% or 7%, it will have to raise interest rates.
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The annual rate of CPI in the UK recorded 9.4% in June, the highest since the data record was set in 1989; The monthly rate of UK retail price index in June was 0.9%, slightly higher than market expectations; The monthly PPI rate in Germany in June was 0.6%, far lower than expected; The current account of the euro zone decreased by € 4.489 billion after the quarter adjustment in May, while it decreased by € 5.8 billion in April.
Aftermarket forecast
In terms of international policy, the expectation that some central banks in the world will significantly raise interest rates and the monetary policy of major central banks as a whole will be tightened is intensifying. In particular, the Federal Reserve will control inflation by raising interest rates, and the price of interest-free asset precious metals is under pressure. Precious metal prices are expected to remain weak and volatile in the short term.
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