1、 Price trend
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According to the monitoring of commodity data, the price of yellow phosphorus in Yunnan and Guizhou increased this month. The average price of yellow phosphorus at the beginning of the month was 27250 yuan / ton, and the average price at the end of the month was 32000 / ton. The price rose within the month, with a range of 17.43%.
2、 Market analysis
This month, the price of yellow phosphorus first fell and then rose. On the whole, the price of yellow phosphorus in Yunnan and Guizhou increased. In the first half of the month, the market situation was light, the market sales was general, and the downstream enterprises pressed the price to purchase, which depressed the confidence of the yellow phosphorus market, and the yellow phosphorus market was weak. In the second half of the month, power supply in Sichuan was limited and yellow phosphorus enterprises were shut down. Due to the impact of the epidemic situation in Weng’an District of Guizhou, the transportation of yellow phosphorus in some areas is limited, which is more troublesome than before. Some companies in Yunnan are overhauled, and the quotation is suspended. Yellow phosphorus prices began to rise sharply. Up to now, the quotation of Guizhou yellow phosphorus factory is about 32000 yuan / ton. Near the end of the month, the overall market trading situation of yellow phosphorus was general. The downstream enterprises were more resistant to the high price of yellow phosphorus, the market transactions were weak, the prices of traders were slightly lowered, and the yellow phosphorus manufacturers were mainly supportive.
In terms of phosphate rock, in the middle and early ten days of August, the domestic market of medium and high-grade phosphate rock continued to consolidate at a high level. The supply in the field was still tight, and the downstream demand was mainly based on demand. Near the end of the month, after the downstream phosphate fertilizer market turned cold, the terminal demand support of the phosphate ore market was loosened, and the market price in the field was weaker than that in the previous period. On August 22, some mining enterprises with higher prices in the previous period slightly reduced the price of 30% phosphate rock by 50-80 yuan / ton, and the difference between high and low prices in the field was narrowed. As of August 24, the market price of 30% phosphate ore in China was around 1050-1100 yuan / ton, The specific price is also related to factors such as powder to block ratio. The specific price is discussed on a single basis. The market price of 28% grade phosphate ore is around 850-980 yuan / ton. The specific price is discussed on a single basis. At present, the market of phosphate rock quarry is light, and the downstream purchase is moderate, and the transaction is generally general.
In terms of coke, in August 2022, the coke market experienced two rounds of increase. As of the press release, the price of quasi first-class metallurgical coke in Shanxi was 2200 yuan / ton, and the price at the beginning of the month was 2600 yuan / ton, with a monthly increase of 18.18%. This month, the coke market has experienced two rounds of increase, with an increase of 400-480 yuan / ton in the month. On the 26th, some coking enterprises in Inner Mongolia started a new round of increase, but the mainstream enterprises did not reply, and as of the press release, they did not land. In this month, the overall operating rate of coke enterprises rebounded, the supply of coke improved significantly, the overall coke inventory in the plant was low, the sales situation was good, and the attitude of coke enterprises was positive. Near the end of the month, due to the influence of downstream procurement, some coke enterprises delayed shipment, and the coke inventory in the plant increased slightly. In the future market, the business community believes that the current coke price is mainly supported by the price of raw material coking coal. The market mentality is generally weak. The downstream just needs to purchase, and the mentality of coke enterprises is slightly changed. There is a certain accumulation of inventory in the plant, and the game mentality of coke steel is strong. It is expected that the coke price will remain temporarily stable in the near future. In the future market, the focus will be on the price trend of raw material coking coal and the sales of downstream finished products.
In terms of phosphoric acid, this month, phosphoric acid fell first and then expanded, and the overall decline was dominated. According to the bulk data list of business association, on August 25, the reference price of phosphoric acid was 8316.67, a decrease of 3.85% compared with 8650.00 on August 1. In the second half of August, the price of phosphoric acid rebounded. Due to the strong yellow phosphorus Market of raw materials this week, the cost support is favorable, and the phosphoric acid market price rises. In Sichuan, due to power limitation and cost rise, most manufacturers suspended quotation and order receiving. It is expected that the market price of phosphoric acid will continue to dominate in the short term.
3、 Future forecast
According to the yellow phosphorus analyst of the chemical branch of the business community, the yellow phosphorus price first fell and then rose this month. The price of upstream phosphate rock continued to be high and consolidated. The coke market was up, and the cost support was acceptable. However, downstream enterprises are more resistant to the high price of yellow phosphorus, and the market turnover turns weak near the end of the month. It is expected that the yellow phosphorus market will fall slightly in the short term.
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