1、 Price trend
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According to the data of business agency, on August 31, the average p value of oil-based ethylene glycol was 4133.33 yuan / ton, down 16.67 yuan / ton compared with the previous statistical cycle.
2、 Analysis of influencing factors
From the perspective of cost, the price of international crude oil futures market fell sharply yesterday, and traders took profits after the sharp rise of oil price in the previous trading day. Because the global economic recession under high inflation continues to weaken the prospects of global oil demand, and Iraq’s oil supply has not been affected by the domestic turmoil. Driven by the rise of crude oil futures market, the spot valuation of light distillate oil in Asia rose. The spot price of naphtha rose to $70.47/barrel, and the spot price difference of naphtha rose to + 2.57/barrel.
The power limitation policy caused by weak demand and high temperature makes polyester production at a low level and the demand side is weak. At the end of the month, as the temperature dropped slightly, some cities relaxed the power limit, and the operating rate of looms in the lower reaches of Zhejiang and Jiangsu increased. Supply side restart and maintenance coexist. Weihe Binzhou chemical was overhauled at the end of August, Tongliao Jinmei chemical was shut down on August 26, Hubei sanning 600000 tons unit was restarted and discharged, and Zhongyan hongsifang 300000 tons / year ethylene glycol unit was restarted on August 28. In terms of inventory, as of August 29, the total inventory of ethylene glycol in the main port of East China was 1.0431 million tons, a decrease of 39800 tons or 3.68% compared with last Monday, and a decrease of 35500 tons or 3.29% compared with last Thursday. The main port inventory continued to be removed, and the pressure on the supply side was reduced.
3、 Forecast: the fundamentals are weak, and it is expected that the low-level shock consolidation will continue.
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