According to the monitoring data of the business community, the TDI price in East China rose at a high level after the festival. As of October 13, the average market price in East China was 24366.67 yuan/ton, up nearly 4300 yuan/ton, or 21.38%, compared with the price of 20075 yuan/ton on September 30.
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After the National Day, TDI prices continued to rise at a high level, with a one-day increase of 1300 yuan/ton. From the perspective of market trading, the downstream market entry enthusiasm is not high, and a small amount of follow-up is also just needed. However, the TDI price has risen continuously, why.
External market: large overseas supply gap and strong demand
The 300000 ton TDI unit of BASF Factory in Ludwigshafen, Germany, was shut down due to force majeure in March 2022.
The 250000 ton TDI unit of Hungary Wanhua Chemical will be overhauled in July 2022, and will operate under low load after restart in early September.
In August 2022, the 300000 ton TDI unit of German Malgenkostro plant encountered force majeure and has not been restarted.
The leakage of Beixi Pipeline has led to the shortage of natural gas in Europe and the restriction of factory commencement, which has once again aggravated the tension of TDI supply in the European market.
Domestic market: release of information such as factory sealing, device maintenance, limited supply of large factories, etc
On October 10, the market learned that Shanghai Covestro TDI was closed for parking, which is expected to take about a week;
On the evening of October 10, Wanhua Chemical released a notice on the shutdown and maintenance of the TDI device in Yantai Industrial Park;
On October 13, the market learned that the latest strike price of Shanghai Covestro TDI was raised by 2000 yuan/ton to 25700 yuan/ton for limited supply.
At the beginning of the month, the big factory listed the price information in October, giving the market a rising signal, and the traders’ offer rose. After the National Day, due to the impact of public health events in Xinjiang, the logistics transportation was slow, the delivery period of Xinjiang Juli was extended, and the market supply was tightened. During the week, the good news from the suppliers was stacked on top of each other. The market atmosphere was positive and the TDI price rose at a high level. Therefore, under the leadership of the supplier market, a sharp rise in TDI was inevitable.
In the future market analysis, TDI data engineers of the business agency believed that the overseas demand was strong, the focus of domestic factories tended to the export market, and many factories were limited in supply. TDI’s spot goods were tight, traders were rising at a high level, and they were reluctant to sell. Some closed orders were suspended, and the market was in a strong bullish atmosphere. It was expected that the future TDI market would continue to be strong and upward, and specific attention should be paid to the release of supplier information.
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