1、 Analysis of upstream acetic acid market trend
According to the monitoring of the bulk data of the business community, acetic acid experienced a roller coaster market in October, which generally rose first and then fell. The average price of acetic acid at the beginning of the month was 3310 yuan/ton, and the price at the end of the month was 3440 yuan/ton, with an increase of 3.92% in the month and a year-on-year decrease of 49.0%.
Before and after the National Day, when the operating rate of enterprises was low and the downstream demand was good, the price of acetic acid rose sharply, with more parent orders and less inventory. One week after the festival, acetic acid rose by nearly 14%. However, in the second half of the month, the market turned sharply downward, the operating rate of acetic acid increased significantly, the plants of Tianjin Soda Plant, Jiangsu Sopu, Yanchang Refinery and other manufacturers resumed operation in succession, the supply of acetic acid increased significantly, and the upstream methanol price fell significantly (methanol fell by 7.39% in October). The market atmosphere fell to the freezing point, and the acetic acid price fell again and again. By the end of the month, most of the increase in the first ten days had been erased. At the end of the month, with Hualu parking, the inventory in Shandong Province declined slightly, and the price of acetic acid gradually stopped falling.
2、 Analysis on the market trend of ethyl acetate
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This month, domestic ethyl acetate was still weak, and the market was still in the process of bottoming. According to the statistics of the business community, the drop in this month was 0.76%. Near the end of the month, the market price of ethyl acetate was 6600-6800 yuan/ton.
This month, the cost of ethyl acetate was not very good. Although the trend of rising first and then falling was followed by acetic acid, the amplitude was very limited due to weak downstream demand, which fluctuated within 3% throughout the month. One week after the festival, affected by the sharp rise in the price of acetic acid, ethyl acetate rose with the rise, but the cost driven market did not match supply and demand. After the middle of the year, under the influence of weak demand, prices fell in a negative way, erasing all previous gains, and the monthly line was slightly lower. On the one hand, the supply side is under pressure. While the bidding price of Shandong’s large factories has been lowered repeatedly, the bidding effect is average. In addition, the supply of large factories in Jiangsu is stable, and the ample supply of goods suppresses the rise of prices.
3、 Analysis of butyl acetate market trend
This month, domestic butyl acetate rebounded slightly, but the market performance was weak. According to the monitoring of the business community, the monthly increase of butyl acetate was 1.39%. At the end of the month, the domestic butyl ester price range was 7200-7500 yuan/ton.
On the one hand, there are differences in cost. Although acetic acid fell in the middle and late days, n-butanol, another raw material, performed admirably. In October, n-butanol rose nearly 10%. Boost the downstream butyl acetate. However, although the cost is good, the supply and demand are still under pressure, so the rise of butyl ester is obviously weak. On the supply side, the operating rate of butyl ester manufacturers was still low in October, which remained at the level of 3-4% for a long time, but there were not many overhaul manufacturers, the market supply was abundant, the downstream demand was relatively weak, and the price was difficult to have a strong performance.
4、 Analysis of acetic acid industry chain
It can be seen from the comparison chart of the rise and fall of the acetic acid industry chain that the industry chain is uneven in heat and cold, and the drop of methanol at the source end (-7.39%) is significant, easing the cost pressure of acetic acid and downstream products. The downstream trend of acetic acid is differentiated. Ethyl acetate (-0.76%), EVA (-9.75%) and PTA (-11.86%) are weak, while acetic anhydride (2.06%) and butyl acetate (1.39%) are strong.
5、 Prospect of acetic acid industry chain
Future market forecast: The analysts of the business community believe that in the short term, the acetic acid industry chain will maintain a weak consolidation. On the one hand, there is still downward pressure on upstream costs, which will bring negative effects to the downstream acetic acid industry chain. In addition, the epidemic situation is repeated, transportation is blocked, downstream demand is weak, and the price of acetic acid is hardly improved. Downstream ethyl ester and butyl ester may be differentiated. Ethyl ester may still be weak due to the pressure of supply and demand, while butyl ester may rebound slightly with the strength of n-butanol.
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