The soaring price of raw materials drives the rise of DOTP price
| POLYVINYL ALCOHOL |
It can be seen from the chart of the rise and fall of DOTP industrial chain price of the business cooperative that the rise of both the raw material isooctanol and PTA prices this week stimulated the rise of DOTP, with isooctanol rising 5.93%, PTA rising 1.54%, DOTP rising 3.93%, and plasticizer DOTP industrial chain products rising at the same time.
According to the data monitoring of the business community, as of November 4, the average price of DOTP was 10250 yuan/ton, 387.50 yuan/ton higher than the average price of 9862.50 yuan/ton on October 28. The corresponding price of isooctanol rose by nearly 700 yuan/ton, and the PTA price rose by 87.5 yuan/ton. The difference between the rise of isooctanol price and the rise of DOTP price is large, mainly because the weak downstream demand has dragged down the plasticizer market, and the insufficient rise of PTA price does not support the sharp rise of DOTP.
The price trend of raw materials rises
According to the data of the business association; The price of isooctanol stopped rising this week. As of November 4, the price of isooctanol was 9533.33 yuan/ton, up 5.93% from 9000 yuan/ton on October 31 last weekend. This week, due to equipment maintenance of isooctanol manufacturers and limited transportation, it is difficult for manufacturers to ship. The price of isooctanol has risen sharply, and the cost of DOTP has risen. With the recovery of transportation, the demand is poor, and the price rise of isooctanol in the future market is not supported enough.
According to the data of the business community, as of November 4, the PTA price was 5787.50 yuan/ton, up 1.54% from 5700 yuan/ton on October 30 last weekend. Recently, there are many PTA maintenance and production reduction capacities, PTA supply is tight, PTA prices are rising, raw material prices are rising, and DOTP is gaining momentum.
The market for plastic products remains weak
According to the data released by the Bureau of Statistics, the output of plastic products in September was 6.92 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 2%. The domestic output of plastic products from January to September was 57.607 million tons, a cumulative decrease of 4.2%. In the traditional peak season, the output of plastic products in September is slightly higher than that in August, which is relatively normal, while the domestic manufacturing industry contracted in October. The output of plastic products in October is expected to converge to October 2021 or lower than the same period last year. The downstream just needs insufficient digestion capacity, the demand for plasticizer is expected to decline, and the downward pressure of plasticizer DOP price is large.
Future market expectation
Analysts of DOTP data from the business agency believe that the rise in the prices of raw materials, such as isooctanol and PTA, this week has stimulated the rise in DOTP prices. However, due to the weak performance on the demand side, the rise in plasticizer DOTP has been weak. In the future, with the recovery of transportation and the completion of enterprise maintenance, the supply shortage of isooctanol and PTA will be alleviated, the DOTP cost support will be weakened, and the demand will be weak. The DOTP decline risk will increase. It is expected that the DOTP will stabilize at a high level in the future, with a downside risk.
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