Domestic price trend of paraxylene:
| POLYVINYL ALCOHOL |
It can be seen from the trend chart of paraxylene that the price trend of this week is temporarily stable. As of the weekend, the domestic ex factory price of paraxylene was 8600 yuan/ton, unchanged from the price of 8600 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week, up 17.81% year on year.
The domestic supply of paraxylene is normal, and the domestic PX operating rate is more than 70%. The external dependence of PX products is about 40%. Recently, the price of PX’s external market has declined slightly. As of October 10, the closing price of the Asian paraxylene market was 974-976 yuan/ton FOB South Korea and 992-994 dollars/ton CFR China. The decline of external market price is bad for the domestic market. Recently, the operating rate of PX units in Asia has slightly increased. On the whole, the operating rate of paraxylene units in Asia is about 60%. The supply of PX goods in Asia has increased, and the domestic market trend of paraxylene is temporarily stable.
The price of crude oil fell slightly this week. As of the 10th day, the settlement price of the main contract of the WTI crude oil futures in the United States had reached 86.47 dollars/barrel, and the settlement price of the main contract of Brent crude oil futures had reached 93.67 dollars/barrel. The oil demand forecast in Asia is still uncertain. With the US mid-term election looming, market concerns about demand have depressed oil prices. In addition, the data released by the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) on Wednesday was negative, and the growth of crude oil inventory last week exceeded expectations. The price of crude oil declined slightly, and the domestic market price of paraxylene was temporarily stable due to this impact.
The downstream PTA market price fell slightly this week, and the average PTA market price was 5700-5750 yuan/ton as of the 11th day. The commissioning of new devices has been the main negative factor to suppress the PTA price in recent months, which has been partly reflected in the price. With the implementation of new devices, the supply of PTA has gradually increased. The current PTA operating rate is around 74.5%, and the supply is more relaxed than the previous period. At present, it is in the traditional peak season of the textile industry. As the temperature gradually drops, there is a potential demand for periodic bargain hunting. Domestic orders for cold proof and warm insulation textiles and clothing fabrics in autumn and winter have improved on a month on month basis. The purchase volume in Europe and other places has rebounded. The purchase of blankets and electric blankets in Yiwu has been significantly boosted. At present, the comprehensive operating rate of looms in Jiangsu and Zhejiang is maintained at around 57%. However, on the whole, terminal orders are mainly small and medium-sized orders. On the whole, the downstream market has not changed much. Affected by this, the price trend of the domestic paraxylene market is temporarily stable.
Chen Ling, a PX analyst from the business community, believes that the current crude oil market is a long short game, and the short-term price will remain volatile. The downstream commencement of the terminal has little change. Although the overall demand is maintained, the overall supply of PTA may gradually increase, and the price has downward pressure. It is expected that there may be a small decline in the market price of dimethylbenzene in the later period.
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