Price trend
| POLYVINYL ALCOHOL |
In the middle of November, the domestic ABS market was put into operation, and the price fluctuated slightly. According to the data monitoring of the business community, the average ex factory price of domestic ABS was 12000 yuan/ton on November 13 and 12050 yuan/ton on November 19, with a weekly increase and decrease of+0.42%.
Cause analysis
In terms of raw materials, the three upstream materials of ABS rose in the second half of November and stabilized in the first half, showing a fair overall performance. Among them, the load of the acrylonitrile industry was low, and the supply side tightened to support the continuous rise of the market. Strong support for ABS cost side.
Butadiene market trend stopped falling. At the beginning of this week, the market took over the earlier market of strong supply and weak demand. At present, affected by the news of the maintenance of the Zhejiang Petrochemical plant, the merchants took the opportunity to raise their quotations. However, the pattern of abundant supply remains unchanged, and the downstream rigid demand support is not strong, resulting in a limited rebound of butadiene.
In terms of styrene, this week’s narrow rise was followed by consolidation and operation, and the increase in export orders boosted the domestic market supply prices. However, the upstream crude oil and pure benzene markets fell, and the demand improvement was limited, which dragged down the future market of styrene.
In terms of supply: In the middle of November, the load of ABS industry was adjusted in a narrow range. At present, the commencement of the plant is maintained at more than 92%, unchanged from last week, and the supply of goods on the site continues to be abundant. The inventory position decreased by 13000 tons compared with last week. At the same time, the enterprise’s cost side pressure increased, and the ex factory price increased, with an average increase of less than 100 yuan/ton.
Demand: At present, downstream factories, including the main terminal household appliances industry, are generally motivated to stock up, and the market trading is weak as a whole. The traditional peak demand season has ended, and the overall demand for support has dropped. Buyers have poor acceptance of the offer after the rise.
Future market forecast
This week, the three upstream materials of ABS will either rise or level, providing strong support for the cost side of ABS. The petrochemical plant started at a high level, and the weekly output was stable. Fortunately, the operation of destocking was effective, and the pressure on the supply side was slightly relieved. The demand side has not improved, and the market is stronger in a narrow range under the long short game, but it is also difficult to rise further. It is expected that in the short term, the ABS market will continue its narrow range consolidation operation.
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