1、 Price trend
According to the bulk list data of business cooperatives, pure benzene fell in shock this month. On November 1, the price was 7200-7500 yuan/ton (the average price was 7384 yuan/ton); On November 28, the price was 6700-6850 yuan/ton (the average price was 6759 yuan/ton), down 8.46% this month and up 1.64% compared with the same period last year.
2、 Analysis and review
This month, the pure benzene market was hit by various negative effects, and the price fell due to shocks. 1、 Crude oil fell broadly and the cost was negative. 2、 The Asian American arbitrage window was closed, and the domestic price of pure benzene in China was at a high level, so the import volume of pure benzene in November was at a high level. Moreover, the overall supply of pure benzene market is sufficient. 3、 Downstream profitability is poor, styrene continues to decline, and the market is generally interested in buying pure benzene, which is a drag on the demand side.
The price of Sinopec’s pure benzene fell by 950 yuan/ton to 6500 yuan/ton this month.
In terms of crude oil, although the news of Saudi Arabia’s production reduction in the month brought good news, the economic data of many countries was weak, and the Federal Reserve still had the possibility of significantly increasing interest rates. In addition, some parts of Asia were affected by public health events, which dragged down demand. Market participants weighed the prospects of energy supply and demand, and crude oil fell sharply this month. As of November 28, Brent fell by 11.64 dollars/barrel, or 12.27%; WTI fell by 9.29 dollars/barrel, or 10.74%.
In terms of the external market, the Asian pure benzene in the external market fell in shock this month. On November 28, the reference price of pure benzene in the Korean market was 730 dollars/ton, down 113 dollars/ton month on month, or 13.4%; East China imported pure benzene at US $762 per ton, a month on month drop of US $108 per ton, or 12.4%.
Downstream
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3、 Future market forecast
On the cost side (crude oil), the price ceiling of Western crude oil exports to Russia has not yet been finalized. In addition, the epidemic prevention and control in some parts of Asia have affected demand. The Federal Reserve still expects to raise interest rates, and the future trend of oil prices is under pressure. However, OPEC’s adherence to the policy of reducing production may boost oil prices to some extent. It is expected that international oil prices will continue to play a long short game. In the future, we will continue to pay attention to the geopolitical situation, the latest production capacity policy of OPEC+, the stock dynamics of U.S. crude oil and refined oil, and the impact of global economic conditions on crude oil prices.
Fundamentals are hard to change in the short term. East China ports are expected to continue to accumulate reserves, with sufficient on-site supply. Pure benzene will continue its weak trend in the short term, and we will wait to see if the cost and demand sides can improve. Continue to pay attention to the impact of crude oil, external market trend, pure benzene and downstream unit dynamics, demand side changes, etc. on the price of pure benzene.
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