Data monitoring shows that the polyacrylamide commodity index stood at 93.13 on March 31, unchanged from yesterday, down 16.48% from the cycle’s highest point of 111.51 (2021-11-03), and up 12.35% from the lowest point of 82.89 on August 2, 2020. (Note: The cycle refers to 2019-04-01 to now)
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Commodity market: Data monitoring shows that in March 2023, the mainstream market of polyacrylamide (CPAM, cationic, molecular weight 12 million, 10-30 ionic degree) in China’s domestic market was stable and slightly fluctuating, with the main market price of 15400 yuan/ton on the 1st day and 15242.86 yuan/ton on the 31st day, with a monthly decrease of 1.02%. This month, some manufacturers in the main production areas in China stopped production for about one to two weeks due to environmental requirements, and then returned to normal work. Most manufacturers produced normally, with sufficient inventory in stock. It is understood that the industry situation this year is very bad, downstream demand continues to be weak, and the market trend of polyacrylamide is weak.
Raw material acrylonitrile: According to data from the Business News Agency, the acrylonitrile market continued to fluctuate slightly in March. According to data monitoring by Business News Agency, as of March 31, the bulk water price in the acrylonitrile market was 10050 yuan/ton, down 4.29% from 10500 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month. This month, the domestic acrylonitrile operating rate is between 60% and 70%. On the one hand, raw material prices fell, and the cost of acrylonitrile continued to decline; On the other hand, the supply and demand side of acrylonitrile is currently deadlocked, and the acrylonitrile market is slightly weak. It is expected that the acrylonitrile market will continue to decline slightly in the future.
Raw material acrylic acid: According to the data from the Business News Agency, the acrylic acid market fell sharply in March, with the main price of 8050 yuan/ton reported in East China on the 1st, and the average price of 7100 yuan/ton on the 31st, with a drop of 11.80%. This month, the price of raw material propylene first fell, then rose, and then fell. Supply side enterprises focused on early maintenance, and later construction slightly increased. However, the purchasing mentality on the demand side was cautious, the terminal delivery intention was general, and the enthusiasm for purchasing raw materials through market inquiry was low. In the short term, the acrylic acid market may be light and wait for consolidation and operation.
Liquefied natural gas for production. According to data from Business News Agency, domestic LNG prices fell sharply in March. As of March 31, the average price of liquefied natural gas in China was 4344 yuan/ton, a decrease of 28.03% compared to the average price of 4214 yuan/ton on March 1. Cost support weakened due to lower feed gas prices. Market supply is sufficient and terminal demand is weak. After the end of the heating season in the north, the industrial operating rate is low, and the market supply is significantly oversupplied. Affected by the continuous price reduction of domestic gas, Haiqi also followed the downward trend. Under the influence of negative factors, domestic liquid prices have now fallen to a low level. It is expected that the domestic LNG market will continue to be weak in the short term.
Aftermarket Forecast: The market for raw materials and fuels has all declined this month, and cost support continues to weaken. Some manufacturers have experienced rapid resumption of production in stages, which has not affected the spot inventory of polyacrylamide at the supply end. Due to the overall impact of the current economic situation, the demand for downstream products continues to be sluggish this year, and the industry’s prosperity is not high. It is expected that the polyacrylamide market will continue to be stable, moderate, and weak in the future.
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