Domestic cobalt prices fluctuated and fell in March
According to data monitoring from Business Society, as of March 31, the cobalt price was 290700 yuan/ton, a decrease of 4.12% compared to the cobalt price of 303200 yuan/ton on March 1. The demand for the lithium battery industry chain is poor, and the prices of products in the lithium battery sector have all declined, with cobalt prices following the decline in March.
Poor demand in the lithium battery industry chain
The quarterly tracking report of International Data Corporation (IDC) shows that the smartphone market is still difficult to say optimistic in 2023. In 2023, the global smartphone market’s shipment volume will be less than 1.2 billion units, a year-on-year decrease of 1.1%; The expected shipment volume in the Chinese market is only 283 million units, a year-on-year decrease of 1.1%. According to a report by market research firm TechInsights, global smartphone shipments (wholesale) and sales (retail) decreased by 11% and 5% year-on-year in February 2023, respectively. The global and Chinese smartphone markets have rebounded, but the consumer recovery in the smartphone market is less than expected, and the expected decline in smartphone shipments in 2023. According to the latest report by market research firm Canalys, the global wearable bracelet market shipped 50 million units in the fourth quarter of 2022, a year-on-year decrease of 18%. Due to factors such as Christmas, the fourth quarter is usually the peak season. Smart wearable devices, as a new luxury consumer, are the “second battlefield” of the mobile phone market. Smart watches have been steadily growing, but in the fourth quarter of the traditional peak season of 22 years, there was an abnormal double-digit decline. Sales of smart watches from major brands all experienced significant declines to varying degrees in the fourth quarter. Inflation and global economic uncertainty have weakened the recovery of consumer demand, The mobile phone market and wearable device market still face serious threats, with poor demand in the lithium battery industry chain and an expected decrease in demand in the cobalt market.
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Completion of deposit delivery, no positive stimulus for cobalt market
Due to the impact of national storage, cobalt manufacturers limited their shipments in February, and cobalt prices rebounded and rose accordingly. With the completion of the collection and storage, the supply of cobalt in the market returned to normal in March. After the resumption of production in domestic refineries, the enthusiasm for production is still good, and new production capacity is gradually released. The oversupply situation may further expand, inventory pressure will increase, and support for cobalt price increases will weaken.
Lithium battery sector prices have all declined
From the price trend table of lithium battery industry chain products, it can be seen that the prices of lithium battery industry chain products fell significantly in March. The metal nickel related to lithium batteries has fallen, the price of lithium salts has plummeted, and the price of metal cobalt has also fallen. The sales of new energy vehicles did not meet expectations, and the demand for cobalt in the market was poor, with insufficient support for the rise in cobalt prices.
The import volume of cobalt raw materials increased year-on-year
From the bar chart of cobalt raw material import volume, it can be seen that the import volume of cobalt raw materials increased year-on-year in January and February 2023, and the import volume of cobalt raw materials steadily increased. The cobalt market has sufficient supply, and the downward pressure on cobalt prices will increase in the future.
Overview and outlook
Bai Jiaxin, a data analyst at Business Society, believes that the positive stimulus has weakened, the demand for cobalt remains weak, the supply surplus in the cobalt market has intensified, and the support for future cobalt price increases has weakened. Expect cobalt prices to fluctuate slightly in the future.
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