1、 Price trend
According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the price of aniline has slightly decreased this month, and the price of aniline has been stable from the beginning to the middle of the month. After the middle of the month, the price suddenly dropped. On June 1st, the market price of aniline was 10912 yuan/ton; On June 30th, the price was at 10238 yuan/ton. The average price of aniline this month decreased by 6.17% compared to the beginning of the month and 14.32% compared to the same period last year.
2、 Analysis and Review
In terms of raw materials, the pure benzene market is relatively stable this month, with little price fluctuation. 1、 Crude oil fell broadly, with a bearish cost side. 2、 The Asian American arbitrage window has closed, and the domestic price of pure benzene in China is high, resulting in a high import volume of pure benzene in March. And the overall supply of pure benzene in the market is sufficient. 3、 The downstream profit level is poor, and the price of styrene has slightly decreased, with a decrease of 8.01% compared to the beginning of the month. At the beginning of the month, the price of pure benzene was 6530 yuan/ton; At the end of the month, the price was 7184 yuan/ton, but this month the price has decreased by 24.57% compared to the same period last year.
Nitric acid: The price of nitric acid has slightly decreased this month. The price of nitric acid in East China was 2033 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month and 1951 yuan/ton at the end of the month. The price fell 4.03% from the beginning of the month and 27.28% from the same period last year.
In June of this year, the price of aniline remained relatively stable, and it was not until mid to late October that there was a slight decline. Starting from the beginning of the month, the early maintenance equipment has gradually returned, and the on-site spot supply increment is insufficient; Downstream, due to increased resistance to high priced aniline, the operating rate has decreased and the demand for aniline has increased. Against the backdrop of insufficient supply and increased demand, aniline factories have run out of inventory and prices have fallen significantly. The price of aniline is relatively stable towards the end of the month.
3、 Future Market Forecast
On the raw material side, pure benzene: The short-term weakness of the fundamentals is difficult to improve. East China ports are expected to continue to accumulate, with sufficient on-site supply. In the short term, pure benzene will continue to show a weak trend, and we will wait and see if the cost and demand sides can improve.
Pure benzene may still weaken in the short term, and there is insufficient cost support for aniline. In June, there were fewer inspections of the aniline plant and there was sufficient supply. Downstream MDI demand is temporarily stable, and the additive industry has entered the off-season, resulting in poor demand performance. In the later stage, we will continue to pay attention to the trend of cost, changes in downstream demand, and changes in the operating rate of aniline plants.
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