1、 Price trend
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According to the Commodity Analysis System of Business Society, the overall weak trend of caustic soda prices in the first half of 2023. At the beginning of the year, the average market price was around 1128 yuan/ton. On June 30th, the price of caustic soda was around 788 yuan/ton, and the price fell by 30.14% in the half year.
2、 Annual Price Comparison Chart
From the annual price comparison chart of caustic soda, it can be seen that the price of caustic soda reached a historical high around October 2021. In 2023, the price of caustic soda was flat and mainly fluctuated.
3、 Price trend
From the price fluctuation chart of caustic soda, it can be seen that in the first half of the year, the overall price of caustic soda showed four trends: from the beginning of the year to mid March, the price showed a downward trend, from late March to late April, the price went up, from mid April to the end of May, and the price went down from the end of May to the end of June. At the beginning of the year, the average market price was around 1128 yuan/ton. On March 18th, the average market price was 804 yuan/ton, with a price drop of 28.72%. On March 18th, the average market price of caustic soda was 804 yuan/ton, and on April 15th, the average market price was 910 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 13.18%. The price has stabilized at around 880 yuan/ton from mid April to the end of May. At the end of May, the average market price of caustic soda was 904 yuan/ton. On June 30th, the average market price of caustic soda was 792 yuan/ton, a decrease of 12.39%.
Phase 1: The price of caustic soda is declining. The main reason is that the main alumina manufacturers in Shandong region continue to lower the purchase price of caustic soda. Downstream market sentiment is mainly wait-and-see, with more on-demand procurement. Downstream alumina prices are low, and on-site caustic soda prices are weak.
Phase 2: In late March, the price of caustic soda increased, and some regions have seen a decrease in caustic soda equipment recently. The inventory of caustic soda has decreased, and the overall supply is lower than in the previous period. Downstream demand is still mainly based on on-demand procurement, and the on-site trading atmosphere is average. Market transactions are relatively flat.
The third stage of consolidation operation. At present, there is no positive support from the supply side. The performance of downstream alumina is relatively light, and the enthusiasm for picking up goods in terms of demand is average. Purchasing is mainly based on demand, and there is a strong wait-and-see sentiment in the market. The overall price of caustic soda has stabilized and operated.
Stage 4: The overall supply of liquid alkali is sufficient, and there is currently no favorable support in terms of supply. Although there will be enterprise maintenance in the later stage, downstream procurement is still in the general market, with high inventory levels. The performance of downstream aluminum oxide is relatively light, with weak and stable aluminum oxide prices operating in the market. The enthusiasm for picking up goods in terms of demand is average, and the market has a strong wait-and-see sentiment.
Supply: From the operating rate chart and maintenance situation of caustic soda in 2023, it can be seen that in the first half of 2023, most of the caustic soda enterprises maintained between 80% -85%, and there were caustic soda enterprises undergoing maintenance. However, due to the lack of favorable support from downstream, the price still operated weakly. In addition, data shows that monitoring and statistics on the national caustic soda production from January to May 2023 showed that the national caustic soda production (converted to 100%) was 3.4128 million tons in May 2023, a year-on-year decrease of 0.3%. From January to May 2023, the national caustic soda production was 16.9337 million tons, a cumulative increase of 4.2%.
Demand: The downstream of caustic soda mainly includes alumina, textile and papermaking, followed by chemical, water treatment and pharmaceutical, papermaking, printing and dyeing, light industry, etc. The demand for alumina industry accounts for 31% of the demand for caustic soda. Recently, the price of alumina has been relatively stable, and spot transactions have been average. Some alumina enterprises have limited production capacity, and the newly added production capacity has been delayed, resulting in alumina enterprises mainly purchasing caustic soda on demand.
Prediction: The domestic caustic soda price is mainly stagnant, and the overall market is weak. Although several companies underwent maintenance in July, the early maintenance companies have gradually resumed production, and the supply of caustic soda is still relatively sufficient. Moreover, downstream alumina enterprises are operating relatively steadily, with fewer spot transactions and average purchase orders. Therefore, the price of caustic soda in the later stage is not optimistic, or it is mainly to maintain a weak market, depending on the downstream market demand.
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