Cobalt prices rose and fell in July
According to data monitoring by Business Society, cobalt prices have risen continuously from 290200 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 305600 yuan/ton on July 11th, and have since continued to decline. As of July 31, the cobalt price was 286500 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.27% compared to the cobalt price of 290200 yuan/ton on July 1; The cobalt price decreased by 6.25% compared to 305600 yuan/ton on July 11th. Downstream demand support is insufficient, and the cobalt market is oversupplied. In July, domestic cobalt prices surged and fell back.
MB cobalt prices fluctuated and fell in July
From the trend chart of MB cobalt price, it can be seen that the MB cobalt price in July did not continue the upward trend of cobalt price in June, and from the middle of the month, the cobalt price slightly decreased. The decline in international cobalt prices is bearish for the domestic cobalt market.
The installed volume of ternary batteries decreased year-on-year
The latest data released by the China Automotive Power Battery Industry Innovation Alliance shows that in June, China’s power battery installation volume was 32.9GWh, a year-on-year increase of 21.8% and a month on month increase of 16.5%. Among them, the installed capacity of ternary batteries is 10.1GWh, accounting for 30.6% of the total installed capacity, a year-on-year decrease of 13%, and a month on month increase of 11.6%. In June, the installed volume of power batteries increased month on month, and the sales of new energy vehicles maintained a significant growth; However, the installation volume of ternary batteries has decreased year-on-year, the proportion of ternary batteries has decreased, the inventory of ternary batteries has accumulated, and the expectation of cobalt market demand growth has decreased, increasing the downward pressure on the cobalt market.
Global mobile phone sales decreased in the second quarter
According to a report released by research firm Counterpoint, in the second quarter of 2023, the global smartphone market sales decreased by 8% year-on-year and 5% month on month, with eight consecutive quarters of year-on-year decline. Mobile phone sales in all regions of the world have contracted, and during the “6.18″ promotion period in China, although the promotion efforts were strong, the response was relatively cold. Counterpoint predicts that the smartphone market will slowly recover in the coming quarters. The sales of mobile phones have decreased and there has been no improvement, leading to an expected decrease in demand in the cobalt market.
Overview and outlook
According to Bai Jiaxin, a data analyst at Business Society, cobalt prices surged in June, but there is insufficient support for future demand growth. Customers are buying up instead of falling, and cobalt prices fell from their high point in July. In June, the installed volume of ternary batteries decreased month on month, global mobile phone sales decreased by 8% in the second quarter, and demand in the cobalt market decreased. Overall, the expected decrease in demand growth and stable supply growth have led to oversupply in the cobalt market, increasing pressure on cobalt prices to decline. It is expected that cobalt prices will fluctuate and decline in the future.
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