1、 Price trend
According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the price of aniline fell first and then rose this month. At the beginning of the month, aniline showed a downward trend, and the price of aniline began to rise in mid to late October. On July 1st, the market price of aniline was 10225 yuan/ton; On July 31st, the price was at 9880 yuan/ton. The average price of aniline this month decreased by 3.37% compared to the beginning of the month and 10.68% compared to the same period last year.
2、 Analysis and Review
In terms of raw materials, the pure benzene market has seen a significant increase this month, with prices gradually increasing. 1、 Crude oil fell broadly, with a bearish cost side. 2、 The Asian American arbitrage window has closed, and the domestic price of pure benzene in China is high, resulting in a high import volume of pure benzene in July. And the overall supply of pure benzene in the market is sufficient. 3、 The downstream profit level is poor, and the price of styrene has slightly increased, with a 14.18% increase compared to the beginning of the month. At the beginning of the month, the price of pure benzene was 6183 yuan/ton; The price at the end of the month was 7212 yuan/ton, and the price has increased this month, a decrease of 18.89% compared to the same period last year.
Nitric acid: The price of nitric acid has slightly decreased this month. The price of nitric acid in East China was 1950 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month and 1933 yuan/ton at the end of the month, 0.87% lower than the beginning of the month and 29.7% lower than the same period last year.
In July of this year, the price of aniline fluctuated and did not rise until mid to late October. Starting from the beginning of the month, the early maintenance equipment has gradually returned, and the on-site spot supply increment is insufficient; Downstream, due to increased resistance to high priced aniline, the operating rate has decreased and the demand for aniline has increased. Against the backdrop of insufficient supply and increased demand, aniline factories have run out of inventory and prices have fallen significantly. Towards the end of the month, the price of aniline has rebounded.
3、 Future Market Forecast
The demand for pure benzene in the region is strong, and downstream purchases are normal. Traders are just in need of restocking, driving the transaction focus to continue to shift upwards. Crude oil and external markets rose,
Pure benzene still has the possibility of rising in the short term, and there is insufficient cost support for aniline. In July, there were fewer inspections of the aniline plant and there was sufficient supply. Downstream MDI demand is temporarily stable, and the additive industry has entered the off-season, resulting in poor demand performance. In the later stage, we will continue to pay attention to the trend of cost, changes in downstream demand, and changes in the operating rate of aniline plants.
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