According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, from August 7th to 10th, the market price of butadiene in China increased from 7376 yuan/ton to 7551 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 2.37% during the cycle, a month on month increase of 15.84%, and a year-on-year decrease of 4.19%. During the week, crude oil prices continued to rise, and Sinopec raised its quotation to support the seller’s mentality. However, Luqing Petrochemical has increased its supply of goods for export, and there are also plans for downstream enterprises to sell raw materials. The news of increased supply has brought significant pressure on the market atmosphere, and the domestic butadiene market has improved.
On the cost side, in terms of crude oil: International crude oil prices continue to rise, with US WTI crude oil prices hitting a nearly 9-month high. The main reason is that market supply concerns continue to ferment, coupled with the phased positive trend of the peak oil consumption season. As of the close on August 9th, the settlement price of the main contract for US WTI crude oil futures was at $84.40 per barrel, an increase of $1.48 or 1.8%. The settlement price of the Brent crude oil futures main contract was $87.55 per barrel, an increase of $1.38 or 1.6%.
In terms of naphtha, the domestic naphtha market is at a high level of consolidation, while the international crude oil market remains at a high level. However, there is a lack of substantial positive news in terminal demand, and trading is mainly in demand. As of August 10th, the benchmark price of Shangshang Society’s naphtha is 8089.00 yuan/ton. The cost of butadiene is a favorable factor.
On the supply side, the main production enterprise Sinopec and its sales companies have raised the price of butadiene by 200 yuan/ton, and as of August 10th, the listed price was 7600 yuan/ton. Luqing Petrochemical has increased its supply of goods for export, and there are also plans for downstream enterprises to sell raw materials, resulting in an increase in market spot supply. Short term bearish impact on butadiene supply side.
On the demand side, the trend of downstream synthetic rubber products is slightly different. Some units have restarted, and the production capacity utilization rate of butadiene mainly downstream butadiene rubber and SBS has increased month on month. As of August 10th, the benchmark price of Shangshe butadiene rubber is 11880.00 yuan/ton, and the benchmark price of butadiene rubber is 11320.00 yuan/ton. Downstream demand continues, and there are sporadic equipment maintenance and parking for butadiene rubber. The demand for butadiene is mixed.
On August 9th, the closing price was closed due to Singapore’s National Day holiday, and the Asian butadiene outer market was closed. The external price of butadiene in Europe remained stable: FOB Rotterdam closed at $445-455 per ton; FD Northwest Europe closed at 535-545 euros per ton.
In the future market forecast, due to the positive impact of crude oil and external markets in the short term, merchants are clearly reluctant to sell, but the market supply is relatively abundant, and downstream inquiries are relatively cautious. Butadiene analysts from Business Society predict that the domestic butadiene market is entering a stage of consolidation and volatility.
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