The price of plasticizer DOP increased significantly in August
According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, as of August 28th, the price of DOP was 12133.33 yuan/ton, an increase of 14.65% compared to the price of 10583.33 yuan/ton on August 1st. June August is the traditional off-season for plasticizers, but this year’s off-season is not weak. Since mid June, DOP prices have bottomed out and rebounded, hitting new highs repeatedly. The price of plasticizer DOP increased significantly in August and reached a new high for the year.
The price of isooctanol increased significantly in August
According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the price of isooctanol on August 28th was 12200 yuan/ton, an increase of 22.20% compared to the price of 9983.33 yuan/ton on August 1st. The planned production of domestic isooctanol units and unexpected vehicle pick-up have led to a tight supply of isooctanol, low inventory of isooctanol, and an upward shift in market focus. In August, the price of isooctanol continued to skyrocket. The price of isooctanol has skyrocketed, and the cost of plasticizer DOP raw materials has increased. As the price of isooctanol has risen to a high level, buying sentiment towards pursuing higher prices has become cautious. With the restart of the isooctanol plant, the supply expectation of the isooctanol market is loose, and the sustained rise of isooctanol in the future is limited in support.
The market of raw material phthalic anhydride in August stopped rising and stabilized
According to the market analysis system for phthalic anhydride products of the Business Society, as of August 28th, the quotation for neighboring phthalic anhydride was 8637.50 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.02% compared to the price of 8550 yuan/ton on August 1st; The price of phthalic anhydride decreased by 1.29% compared to 8750 yuan/ton on August 10th. Downstream production has declined, demand for phthalic anhydride has weakened, coupled with an increase in production in the phthalic anhydride industry, leading to an increase in market supply expectations and a downward pressure on the market. Moreover, the domestic price of naphthalene phthalic anhydride rebounded after a decline, while the price of ortho benzene stabilized after an increase. The support for the price increase of ortho phthalic anhydride weakened, and the price difference between ortho phthalic anhydride and naphthalene phthalic anhydride widened. The downward pressure on ortho phthalic anhydride still exists. In the future, the price of ortho phthalic anhydride will stabilize, the cost of plasticizer raw materials will stabilize, and the downward pressure on plasticizers will still exist.
According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, as of August 28th, the price increases of various products in the plastic sector compared to July 1st, from high to low, are PVC (12.48%), PP (wire drawing) (7.28%), and LLDPE (4.89%). Since July, as the plastic industry approaches the traditional peak season, the market has started to heat up, and various products in the plastic sector have seen a rise, with plastic futures rising at the same time. In the two months since July, the plastic industry has been dominated by Lido. On the macro level, inflation in the United States has cooled beyond expectations, the necessity for the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates has decreased, and concerns about economic recession have eased. In terms of cost, the seasonal peak demand from refineries and OPEC production cuts in oil producing countries have led to a strengthening of international crude oil prices. At the same time, downstream plastic enterprises are gradually increasing their stocking, improving consumption follow-up, and enhancing market momentum. Under the dual support of rebounding consumption and high costs, the prices of plastic futures and three materials have fluctuated and risen.
Future expectations
Analysts from Business Society’s plasticizer product data believe that although August is the traditional off-season for plasticizers, the upstream and downstream of the plasticizer industry chain are both rising against the trend. In terms of raw materials, in August, the production of isooctanol was at a low level, and the supply of isooctanol was insufficient. The price of isooctanol continued to rise sharply, and the downstream demand for phthalic anhydride was weak. The support for benzene raw materials was no longer there. In August, the price of phthalic anhydride stopped rising and fell, and the overall cost of plasticizer product DOP raw materials increased significantly; The downstream plastic futures market has rebounded, and the demand for plasticizers has rebounded; The operating rate of plasticizer enterprises is low, and the supply of plasticizers is tight. In the future, as the peak season approaches, the demand for plasticizers is expected to rebound. However, in September, upstream and downstream enterprises of plasticizers are expected to resume construction, and the supply of raw materials such as isooctanol and plasticizer DOP is expected to increase, resulting in a double increase in supply and demand; The supply of isooctanol has increased, the support for the rise of isooctanol has weakened, and the expected high price of raw material isooctanol has fallen; Downstream customers have a low acceptance of high prices. As the supply of plasticizers increases, the downward pressure on plasticizers increases, and it is expected that the high price of plasticizer DOP will fall back.
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