According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the domestic asphalt market was weak and declined in August. From August 1st to 29th, the average price of asphalt producers in Shandong Province decreased from 3809 yuan/ton to 3726 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.19%, and the price decreased by 15.91% year-on-year.
At the beginning of the month, the impact of international crude oil decline factors weakened cost support, and the supply side remained stable while increasing. At the same time, weather factors have affected an increase in precipitation in some regions of China, resulting in slightly flat demand.
In the first half of this month, international crude oil remained strong, but cost support was limited. The supply side continued to maintain a high level, and demand remained average. The asphalt market was weak in the short term.
In the latter half of the month, there was still an imbalance between supply and demand, with significant supply pressure and a short-term weakness in the asphalt market.
On the cost side, the crude oil market in August was relatively high and volatile. As of the close on August 28th, the settlement price of the main contract for WTI crude oil futures in the United States was at $80.10 per barrel; The settlement price of the main contract for Brent crude oil futures is at $84.42 per barrel. The first half of the month continued to ferment due to market supply concerns, coupled with a period of positive oil consumption during the peak season. International crude oil futures continued their upward trend, reaching a nearly 9-month high; In the second half of the month, the number of active oil drilling rigs in the United States decreased, driven by the sharp rise in diesel prices. However, weak economic data and the suppression brought by the strengthening US dollar limited the increase in oil prices.
On the supply side, the main production enterprises have slightly increased production, driving an overall increase in supply in the area. The comprehensive operating rate of the asphalt industry has increased month on month, with negative impacts on the supply side.
On the demand side, the demand for asphalt in the market is relatively flat, with varying demand in different regions. The market has slowly recovered in the early stages of demand, and demand in some regions has gradually increased. However, some regions are still difficult to show significant improvement due to the impact of rainfall. The demand side of the asphalt market has a relatively stable impact.
As of the close of August 29th, the oil asphalt futures market has declined. The main asphalt contract 2311 opened at 3739 yuan/ton, with a maximum price of 3739 yuan/ton and a minimum price of 3688 yuan/ton. It closed at 3715 yuan/ton in the end, a decrease of 33 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day, a decrease of 0.88%. The trading volume is 223808 hands, the holding volume is 221188 hands, and the daily increase is 23159.
In the future market forecast, the supply continues to be high, and from the demand side, there will be short-term rainfall in the northeast region of North China, which may hinder demand. Business Society asphalt analysts predict that the domestic asphalt market will be mainly weak in the short term.
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