According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the price trend of the domestic heavy rare earth market has increased. On September 5th, the rare earth index was 502 points, an increase of 4 points from yesterday, a decrease of 50.15% from the highest point in the cycle of 1007 points (2022-02-24), and an increase of 85.24% from the lowest point of 271 points on September 13, 2015. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from December 1st, 2011 to the present)
The price trend of domestic dysprosium oxide, dysprosium iron alloy, and metal dysprosium has increased. As of the 6th, the price of dysprosium oxide was 2.58 million yuan/ton, an increase of 3.61% compared to the 1st price; The price of dysprosium iron alloy is 2.52 million yuan/ton, an increase of 3.70% compared to the previous day’s price; The price of dysprosium metal was 3.31 million yuan/ton, an increase of 5.08% compared to the previous day’s price; The domestic price of terbium series is mainly increasing, with the domestic price of terbium oxide reaching 8.6 million yuan/ton and the price of metallic terbium reaching 10.6 million yuan/ton.
The heavy rare earth market prices have continued to rise in September. Due to environmental reasons, some rare earth mining enterprises have limited production, and some rare earth manufacturers have voluntarily reduced production, which has led to a decrease in spot inventory in the market. Separation plants and metal factories in Sichuan region will have varying degrees of production reduction and shutdown behavior, resulting in tight supply in the rare earth industry and an upward trend in rare earth prices. Recently, there has been continuous news of customs closures in Myanmar, which has raised market expectations for future rare earth prices and led to an increase in the prices quoted by holders. As the traditional peak season of “nine gold and ten silver” approaches, the demand for new energy vehicles, industrial robots and other terminals is also constantly increasing. The rare earth market orders are rising, and multiple positive factors are combined, leading to an increase in the price trend of heavy rare earth in China.
According to statistics, in July, the production and sales of new energy vehicles completed 805000 and 780000 units respectively, with a month on month increase of 2.8% in production and a month on month decrease of 3.2% in sales, with year-on-year growth of 30.6% and 31.6%, respectively. From January to July, the production and sales of new energy vehicles completed 4.591 million and 4.526 million respectively, with year-on-year growth of 40% and 41.7%, respectively. In 2023, the production and sales of new energy continue to rise, coupled with the opening of the Golden Nine Silver Ten Year Plan, the demand for new energy has increased, and the increase in production and sales of new energy vehicles is beneficial for the domestic rare earth market prices. The price trend of the domestic heavy rare earth market has also increased.
After years of governance, the domestic rare earth industry has gradually formed a supply pattern with large groups as the main body and relatively concentrated raw materials. With the continuous development of the foreign rare earth industry, China’s share of rare earth production has decreased from 90% to 70%. According to statistics, China’s rare earth export volume in July was 5425.6 tons; From January to July, the cumulative total export volume of rare earths from China was 31661.6 tons, a year-on-year increase of 6%. The export volume of rare earth commodities from China increased, which to some extent supported the prices of the rare earth market.
Future Forecast: The current rare earth market is showing a strong demand and tight supply overall pattern. In the short term, the price trend of the heavy rare earth market is rising, and in the medium to long term, there is a lack of primary and renewable supply sources. Dysprosium and terbium oxides will also face shortages. In addition, driven by emerging and traditional demands such as energy-saving motors, industrial machinery, wind power, variable frequency air conditioning, and consumer electronics, the global rare earth permanent magnet market demand is expected to continue to grow, Long term bullish market prices in the rare earth industry.
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