Price trend
In October, the domestic POM market mainly showed a weak downward trend, with a significant drop in spot prices. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, as of October 31, the mixed price of domestic POM was 12925 yuan/ton, a decrease of -14.12% compared to the price level at the beginning of the month.
Cause analysis
In terms of raw materials:
According to the analysis system chart of the commodity market of the Business Society, the market price of formaldehyde in Shandong Province remained stable and fluctuated slightly in October. The raw material formaldehyde operates in a narrow range of oscillations, and the support for formaldehyde is average. However, downstream formaldehyde board companies have poor production performance, weak demand, and weak procurement, dragging down the spot market. Therefore, formaldehyde has a general impact on the cost side of POM.
On the supply side:
In October, multiple domestic POM enterprises resumed work or increased their load, and the overall operating rate fluctuated and increased during the month. The average load has increased from around 61% to over 81%. Due to the abundant supply of goods in the market, at the beginning of the month, most enterprises’ warehousing took on the low level in the early stage, and after accumulating inventory within the month, the pressure gradually increased. Due to the impact of low profit margins in early September, the profit margins of merchants and aggregators have been further compressed. The supply side has a heavy burden on POM spot goods.
In terms of demand:
In October, the operating level of downstream POM enterprises in China was not high, and some enterprises needed to digest their pre stocking inventory. On market trading is weak, making it difficult to release POM consumption. At the same time, many business owners have bearish sentiment, and following up on operations is even more cautious. Overall, the demand side has poor support for POM spot prices.
Future Market Forecast
In October, the POM market fluctuated and fell. The operating rate of domestic polymerization plants has significantly increased, and the overall supply of goods on site is abundant. The supply pressure is gradually rising, and the concentration erupts at the end of the month. On the demand side, terminal enterprises are operating at a low level, and some raw material inventory has not yet been digested. Be cautious in purchasing operations and resist high priced sources. There is a lack of trading on the market, and competition among traders is intensifying. Overall, it is difficult to find both supply and demand side benefits in the current POM market, and it is expected that the POM market may continue to operate in a weak trend in the near future.
| http://www.polyvinylalcohols.com |