According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the domestic aggregated MDI market has risen in a narrow range. From November 2nd to 9th, the domestic aggregated MDI market price increased from 15783 yuan/ton to 16250 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 2.96% during the cycle, a month on month increase of 1.04%, and a year-on-year increase of 12.46%. The domestic aggregated MDI market is relatively strong and follows suit, but the overall fluctuation is limited. Supply side production enterprises are reducing their supply, and there is stage price support. However, the overall consumption capacity of the demand side is weak, and the demand in some industries is significantly lower than in the early stage, limiting the growth of aggregated MDI.
On the supply side, maintenance of the 600000 ton/year unit at Shanghai MDI factory began on November 16th, with distillation shutdown for about two weeks and synthesis maintenance until mid December. The 400000 ton/year device at Chongqing MDI factory is scheduled for maintenance in early December. In addition, there are rumors in the market that the Ningbo factory has maintenance plans. The supply side is shrinking, but there is still room for improvement. The supply side is influenced by favorable factors.
On the cost side, the raw material of pure benzene is rising and falling in the domestic pure benzene market. East China ports have slightly accumulated inventory, and crude oil futures have fluctuated and declined, resulting in insufficient support for pure benzene. As of November 9th, the benchmark price of pure benzene for Shangshang Society is 7850.50 yuan/ton. Raw material aniline: The domestic aniline market has rebounded and reorganized, with smooth shipments from aniline factories and some factories undergoing maintenance. The spot sales of aniline have decreased, resulting in a tight supply. As of November 9th, the benchmark price of aniline in Shangshang Society is 12300.00 yuan/ton. The cost of aggregating MDI is mixed.
On the demand side, the follow-up of demand orders is relatively weak. As the temperature in the north gradually cools down, the overall demand for insulation materials such as spraying, plates, and pipelines has weakened, and the on-site consumption capacity has weakened. However, with the arrival of the Double Eleven and Double Twelve E-commerce Festivals, there is still some support for the follow-up atmosphere in the refrigerator and freezer industry. Overall, downstream demand follow-up is relatively limited, and the market is slow to follow up. The short-term aggregate MDI demand side is influenced by favorable factors.
In the future market forecast, after the price increase, traders’ willingness to ship will increase, and the market atmosphere will be good. Business Society MDI analysts predict that the domestic aggregated MDI market is mainly slow to follow up.
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