Introduction: Cyclohexane is an organic compound that is a colorless and pungent liquid. It is insoluble in water and soluble in most organic solvents such as ethanol, benzene, and acetone. It is a non corrosive and flammable liquid. Usage: Generally used as a general solvent, standard substance for chromatographic analysis, and for organic synthesis. It can be applied in resins, coatings, fats, paraffin oils, and can also prepare organic compounds such as cyclohexanol and cyclohexanone.
In 2023, the domestic cyclohexane market showed an “M” trend. The average price at the beginning of the year was 7033.33 yuan/ton, and the average price at the end of the year was 7116.67 yuan/ton, with a year-on-year increase of 1.18%. The overall increase was not significant, with a low price of 6500 yuan/ton in July and a high price of around 7500 yuan/ton in mid October.
From the monthly K-bar chart, it can be seen that the cyclohexane market in 2023 showed more gains and less losses. There was a clear upward trend in the first and third quarters, with the decline concentrated in the second and fourth quarters. The first quarter continued until April, and cyclohexane showed an upward trend. The upstream cost side supported it, while the downstream demand was still acceptable. In 2023, China took a series of measures to restore and expand consumption, and the upstream pure benzene was relatively driven by national policies, The lowest price for upstream pure benzene in 2023 was in June, and the highest price was in September, which is similar to the cyclohexane market. The column chart of cyclohexane also shows that the overall market of cyclohexane is greatly affected by upstream factors.
Prediction of the market trend of cyclohexane in 2024:
From the annual increase in 2023, it can be seen that the demand for cyclohexane in the market is currently in a state of supply-demand balance. Although there has been some expansion in production capacity, downstream consumption is stable, the supply side is relatively sufficient, and there is certain pressure on market operation. The demand in the downstream market is insufficient, and it may maintain a low consolidation level.
In terms of supply: From previous years’ data, it can be seen that the overall price fluctuation range of cyclohexane is very limited. Although the price has risen and fallen again, the overall range of rise and fall is very small. Therefore, it can be concluded that the supply of cyclohexane in the market is sufficient and in a state of supply-demand balance. Most buyers mainly purchase small orders. Currently, there is no news of cyclohexane plant maintenance, and the operating rate is still at a high level. The Spring Festival of 2024 is approaching, Downstream markets are expected to stock up in advance, with essential procurement supporting the price of cyclohexane. The fluctuation of cyclohexane prices is also greatly affected by upstream pure benzene, and currently the upstream is in a volatile trend with limited decline. January is the off-season for demand, and the Spring Festival is in early February. It is expected to maintain a rebound before the holiday.
In terms of cost: January is in the off-season of demand, and the global crude oil market remains weak. As the Spring Festival approaches, the demand for crude oil in the market will remain optimistic. The Spring Festival falls in early February, and consumption increases during the holiday period, which helps to maintain a rebound in prices and to some extent boost the upstream market. The domestic pure benzene market is mainly volatile, and in 2024, pure benzene will continue to expand production, with plans for new facilities of 2 million tons, and the overall supply of the industry will increase, The market still needs to pay attention to the trend of crude oil, and the support for raw material costs in the cyclohexane market is limited.
In terms of demand: Cyclohexane can be used as a solvent for rubber, coatings, and lacquers. It is widely used as a diluent and oil extractant for adhesives. It is expected that the downstream demand will remain at the previous level in 2024, and downstream caprolactam will maintain a low level of consolidation. Plant maintenance will gradually start in 2024, and the overall supply of the industry will increase. The demand will continue to be in the off-season, and the market will mainly operate under pressure. It is expected that the cyclohexane market will experience narrow fluctuations in the first half of 2024, In terms of demand, rigid procurement is the main focus. With the recovery of the domestic economy, household consumption has improved, and terminal demand has increased. Terminal consumption will be boosted, and the demand for cyclohexane will also increase.
In summary, the cyclohexane analyst from Business Society believes that in recent years, the cyclohexane market has rarely seen a sharp rise or fall, with sufficient supply and stable demand. However, the cyclohexane market is lukewarm and the overall market supply and demand balance is the main factor. The price changes of pure benzene directly affect the downstream trend of cyclohexane, and it is necessary to constantly monitor the upstream trend.
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