According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the domestic polyester staple fiber market has experienced a decline and then an increase since January. As of January 16th, the average price of 1.4D * 38mm in mainstream factories in Jiangsu and Zhejiang was 7472 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.53% compared to the beginning of the month. The market fluctuations in this round are mainly influenced by cost factors.
In the crude oil market, the disturbance in the Middle East continues, and the situation is not clear. There is no sign of cooling in the short term, and oil prices still receive significant support. However, the US oil inventory has accumulated, and the market is once again concerned about economic weakness, which has significantly dragged down oil prices. Therefore, under the long short game, crude oil prices are mainly volatile, but there is still support for PTA costs. As of January 15th, the settlement price of Brent crude oil futures main contract was reported at $78.15 per barrel.
Since January, from the perspective of PTA supply side, the production capacity operating rate has remained stable with little change, and the industry operating rate has remained around 82%. With the restart of a 2 million ton PTA plant in South China on January 15th, products have been produced and the industry load has increased to around 84%. The pressure of sufficient supply of goods still exists. But next, the load of the 4.5 million ton PTA plant in South China will be adjusted from the original 80% to around 60%. The 3.6 million ton PTA unit of Yisheng New Materials Line 2 is scheduled for maintenance by the end of this month and is expected to last for one month. Negative load reduction and increased maintenance expectations, PTA stopped falling and rebounded. As of January 16th, the average market price in East China was 5794 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.29% from the beginning of the month.
Driven by a strong atmosphere in the raw material market, the downstream yarn market has improved. As of January 16th, the reference price for the pure polyester yarn market in Shandong Province was reported at 12475 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.40% from the beginning of the month. However, the order volume in spring and summer is not as high as in previous years, and as the Spring Festival holiday approaches, restocking is gradually coming to an end, making it difficult for prices to continue to rise. We maintain a wait-and-see attitude towards raw material procurement and mainly buy on demand.
Analysts from Business Society believe that warmer raw material costs have a greater impact on the price of polyester staple fibers. From the perspective of its own supply side, there is a maintenance plan for polyester staple fibers, but the supply of goods is still sufficient. Maintain a cautious wait-and-see attitude downstream and not rush to purchase goods. Therefore, the price of polyester staple fibers may continue to rise in the short term, but the extent is limited by the drag of supply and demand.
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