Bromine is the only non-metallic substance in liquid form at room temperature, with the chemical formula Br2. It is dark reddish brown in color and has an irritating odor. Bromine has active physicochemical properties and can form a wide variety of inorganic bromides as well as a large amount of brominated organic compounds. Due to the unique physical and chemical properties of different bromides, bromine has become a widely used basic chemical raw material, and is one of the key raw materials in chemical production and even the entire industrial production.
Take a look at the price of bromine: According to the commodity analysis system of Business Society, the overall price of bromine is weak in 2023, with an average market price of 44600 yuan/ton at the beginning of the year and 23000 yuan/ton at the end of the year, a price drop of 48.43%.
From the monthly K-bar chart of bromine, it can be seen that in 2023, prices only increased in July, August, October, and November, while prices decreased in the other eight months. The largest increase was in August, with prices rising by 21.08%, and the largest decrease was in March, with prices falling by 20.97%.
Taking a look at the annual comparison chart of bromine, it can be seen that the overall price of bromine has been weak this year, with prices remaining at a low level in all months except for January and February.
Let’s take a closer look at the price trend. The first stage, from January to the end of June, saw a continuous decline in prices. At the beginning of the year, the average market price was 44600 yuan/ton, and on June 30th, the average market price was 18000 yuan/ton, with a price drop of 59.64%. In the first half of 2023, prices continued to decline unilaterally, and by the end of June, prices had reached the lowest historical level for the whole year. At the beginning of the year, due to the Spring Festival, bromine manufacturers still had a small amount of inventory, mainly consuming inventory. The downstream flame retardant and intermediate industries are operating at low loads, with a low willingness to purchase and mainly relying on multi-dimensional and rigid demand procurement. Downstream demand was weak and continued until the end of June.
In the second stage, prices will increase from mid July to the end of August, rising from the market average of 18000 yuan/ton in early July to around 24800 yuan/ton on August 25th, with a price increase of 37.78%. Mainly because in early July, a large bromine enterprise in Shandong stopped for one week of maintenance. The main reason for the mid month is due to the arrival of the rainy season, which reduces the production of seawater bromine brine and slightly reduces the production of bromine. Downstream support is average, and the flame retardant and intermediate industries are still mainly purchasing on demand in recent times. The attitude of bromine enterprises in the industry is average. The price of bromine enterprises is rising, and downstream enterprises are repeatedly observing, creating a strong gaming atmosphere.
In the third stage, from the end of August to December, the price will be around 24200-25300 yuan/ton for consolidation. As the temperature decreases, bromine companies are also preparing for winter storage. Enterprises focus on maintaining a stable mindset and have a clear intention to stabilize prices. They tend to hold onto goods and be reluctant to sell, but with weak downstream expectations, it is difficult to raise prices. The supply-demand game is dominated by price consolidation.
Bromine prices will continue to remain low in 2023, can prices improve in 2024
On the supply side, the supply of bromine in China has changed relatively little, and the overall supply trend is relatively stable. Due to the increasing reduction of underground brine resources, the increase in bromine production capacity in China is slow.
In terms of import and export: Currently, the self-sufficiency rate of the domestic bromine market in China is not high, and bromine heavily relies on imports. The self-sufficiency rate of bromine in China has maintained a low level in recent years. However, the import dependence of bromine is high, and the supply of the bromine industry chain is restricted by countries such as Israel, the United States, and India, which hinders the downstream development of bromine in China. Customs data shows that in December 2023, the import of bromine was 7367 tons, an increase of 836.3 tons or 12.8% compared to the previous month. The cumulative import volume from January to December 2023 was 55138.22 tons, a decrease of 4174.28 tons or 7.04% compared to the same period last year.
In terms of flame retardants, long-term sluggish downstream demand has led to slow inventory consumption by manufacturers. The main flame retardant manufacturer, tetrabromobisphenol A, maintains low load operation and low prices. The price of tetrabromobisphenol A is close to the cost line, resulting in a significant reduction in profits. At the same time, there is a lack of order support. In terms of bromine procurement, sporadic replenishment is the main focus, while flame retardant manufacturers only rely on replenishment for immediate needs.
Prediction: According to the analysis of Business Society, the price of bromine has been weak in recent times, and the downstream flame retardant and intermediate industries of bromine have received average support recently. Market transactions are weak, and bromine enterprises mainly consume inventory, taking advantage of downstream opportunities to lower prices. The supply of bromine in our country has changed relatively little, and we need to rely on imported bromine from abroad. Overall, it is expected that the price of bromine will be weak in the short term. However, as the weather warms up after the year, enterprises will resume production and downstream demand will recover. Bromine may recover after the year, depending on downstream market demand.
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