1、 Price trend
According to commodity data monitoring, the overall price of isopropanol is expected to decline in 2023. At the beginning of the year, the average domestic price of isopropanol was 6680 yuan/ton, and at the end of the year, the average price was 7890 yuan/ton. The price of isopropanol decreased by 18.11% during the year. The highest price of isopropanol for the year is 9300 yuan/ton, and the lowest price for the year is 6340 yuan/ton.
2、 Market analysis
From the perspective of market development in 2023, isopropanol is in a fluctuating and rising stage from January to April; 4-6 is in a declining stage; 7-9 upward phase; The price fluctuated and fell from 10 to 12.
In the first quarter, the average price of isopropanol was 6680 yuan/ton on January 1st and 6940 yuan/ton on March 31st, with a cumulative increase of 3.89% from January to March. After the January holiday, the acetone market rose, driving the isopropanol market to stop falling and rebound, and the overall market fluctuated and rose. As of the end of March, the majority of isopropanol market quotations in Shandong region were around 6500-6900 yuan/ton; The majority of prices for isopropanol in the Jiangsu Zhejiang market are around 6900-7300 yuan/ton.
In the second quarter, the average price of isopropanol was 6900 yuan/ton on April 1st, and 6440 yuan/ton on June 30th. The cumulative decline from April to June was 6.67%. The domestic isopropanol market fluctuated and rose in April. The market price of acetone continues to rise, driving confidence in the isopropanol market and causing market prices to fluctuate and rise. From May to June, raw material prices fell, and the trading atmosphere in the isopropanol market was light. Actual orders were cautious, and market confidence was insufficient. The focus shifted downwards. As of the end of June, the majority of isopropanol market quotations in Shandong region were around 6200-6400 yuan/ton; The majority of isopropanol prices in the Jiangsu region are around 6700-6800 yuan/ton.
The average price of isopropanol in the third quarter was 6440 yuan/ton on July 1st, and 9280 yuan/ton on September 30th, with a cumulative increase of 44.1% from July to September. The price of raw material acetone has risen, while propylene has slightly increased. The overall cost support has driven up the price of isopropanol in the market. In addition, the export sector has performed well, and the domestic market has also performed well. Overall, the market trading is relatively active. As of the end of September, the majority of isopropanol market quotations in Shandong region were around 9000-9300 yuan/ton; The majority of isopropanol prices in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions are around 9500-9600 yuan/ton.
The average price of isopropanol in the fourth quarter was 9280 yuan/ton on October 1st, and 7890 yuan/ton on December 31st. The cumulative increase from October to December was 14.98%. The prices of raw materials acetone and propylene have fallen one after another, and overall cost support is weak. The overall trading atmosphere in the market is light, with downstream and traders maintaining a wait-and-see attitude. As of the end of December, the majority of isopropanol market quotations in Shandong region were around 7500-7800 yuan/ton; The majority of isopropanol prices in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions are around 7900-8200 yuan/ton.
Production capacity and output
According to publicly available data, the production areas of isopropanol are mainly concentrated in Asia, North America, Western Europe, and other regions. In recent years, the isopropanol market in China has developed rapidly, and China’s isopropanol production capacity plays a crucial role in Asia and even globally. In 2021, the production of isopropanol in China was approximately 454200 tons, and in 2022, the production of isopropanol in China was approximately 473500 tons. In 2023, China’s production of isopropanol was 469900 tons.
From the perspective of competition among enterprises in China’s isopropanol industry, analysis based on enterprise production capacity shows that isopropanol production enterprises in China are relatively concentrated, with about 17 isopropanol production enterprises nationwide, with a total production capacity of about 1.165 million tons.
From the perspective of regional competition in China’s isopropanol industry, isopropanol is mainly distributed in six provinces: Shandong, Zhejiang, Jiangsu, Liaoning, Guangdong, and Hunan. Among them, Jiangsu Province has the largest production capacity, with a total production capacity of about 376000 tons, accounting for 34.3% of the national production capacity; Next is Shandong Province, with a production capacity of approximately 320000 tons, accounting for approximately 29.2%. The production capacity of Liaoning Province is about 184000 tons, accounting for 16.8%. The production capacity of isopropanol in Zhejiang, Guangdong, and Hunan is 130000 tons, 70000 tons, and 15000 tons, accounting for 11.9%, 6.4%, and 1.4%, respectively.
Import and export data
Time/ . Import volume (kg)../Export volume (kg)
2018/41854977./105382788
2019/32889801./183117591
2020./47834777./250018110
2021./45526194./119264957
2022./42817940./164566296
2023./44861220./130747755
In 2023, China imported 44861220 kilograms of isopropanol and exported 130747755 kilograms. The main export destinations for Chinese isopropanol are India, Indonesia, and Thailand. India has implemented quota based safeguard measures for the import of isopropanol, which has led to a decrease in export volume.
On April 6, 2023, the WTO Safeguards Committee issued a safeguard notification submitted by the Indian delegation to India on April 5, 2023. India decided to implement safeguard measures for imported isopropanol in the form of quotas, which are issued quarterly and valid for one year from April 1, 2023 to March 31, 2024, and will terminate upon expiration. The main countries and regions involved are Chinese Mainland, South Korea, Singapore and Taiwan, China.
3、 Future Market Forecast
Isopropanol is based on two processes: acetone and propylene. At present, the profitability of the isopropanol acetone hydrogenation process is better than that of the propylene hydration process, so the price of isopropanol mainly varies with the acetone raw material.
In 2024, China’s isopropanol production capacity will continue to increase, and overcapacity will have a significant impact on the price trend of the isopropanol market. The main market adjustment direction has also fallen on the operating rate of isopropanol. The operating load rate of isopropanol in 2024 may fluctuate very frequently.
From 2022 to 2023, domestic demand has shown a downward trend. Isopropanol is currently mainly exported, with limited domestic demand. With the end of India’s quota based safeguard measures for imported isopropanol on March 31, 2024. In 2024, China’s export of isopropanol may experience a slight increase.
In summary, in 2024, the factors affecting the price of isopropanol will still be domestic demand, exports, cost, and adjustment of operating load rate. Under the premise of a significant increase in export volume, the market will perform even stronger.
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