Price trend in 2023:
In 2023, the domestic industrial grade 85% formic acid market first rose and then fell, with an overall upward trend. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of January 1, 2023, the average quotation price of 85% industrial grade formic acid enterprises in China was 3000.00 yuan/ton. As of December 31, the average formic acid price was 3150.00 yuan/ton, with a 5% increase in the market price for the year.
In the first half of the year, the transaction price of formic acid in the market was around 3000.00 yuan/ton in January. Before the Spring Festival, supply side construction was at a high level, and inventory was under pressure. Downstream stocking enthusiasm was poor, and some enterprises reduced prices to reduce inventory. After the Spring Festival, mainstream enterprises experienced equipment shutdowns and a decline in operating rates. In addition, the increase in raw material prices has strengthened cost support, and downstream demand is still acceptable. Business owners have a positive attitude, and in February, cost and supply support for formic acid prices have increased. The cost support in March is still acceptable, with the market mainly digesting inventory and slightly increasing demand. In the latter half of the year, the supply side contracted, and prices rose again, resulting in orderly market transactions. The formic acid market remained stable at a high level in April, while downstream industries such as pharmaceuticals, rubber, leather, and pesticides bought on demand in May. The overall trading volume of the market remained unchanged, and merchants shipped according to market trends. In June, the formic acid market continued to remain stable, with mainstream prices remaining around 3900 yuan/ton.
Second half of the year: In July, the supply and demand support remained relatively stable, and the market trend remained stable. In late August, some companies lowered prices to ship due to inventory pressure, and the focus of negotiations in the formic acid market remained stable with some declines. In September, some manufacturers had excess production in the early stage, and the supply side had sufficient supply of goods. However, the downstream inquiry and procurement atmosphere was weak, mainly focusing on just waiting and following up. Some inventories were under pressure, and the market declined. Cost support weakened in October, and after the Double Festival, downstream inquiries and procurement followed up on demand, with holders actively shipping and the market stabilizing. Some companies lowered their prices. In mid to early November, the situation remained stable, but towards the end of the month, downstream procurement enthusiasm was relatively weak, mainly due to rigid demand, and some companies experienced a downward pressure on prices. The market trading remained stable in the first half of December, while downstream buyers had a poor mentality in the second half. Actual market transactions were flat, with some inventory under pressure and prices falling.
Cost side: Upstream sulfuric acid: According to the commodity market analysis system of Business Society, the domestic sulfuric acid market will experience a sharp rise and fall in 2023. The average price at the beginning of the year was 286.67 yuan/ton, and the average price at the end of the year was 274 yuan/ton, a decrease of 4.42% for the whole year. Upstream Methanol: According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the market price of methanol fell in 2023, with a price of 2698.33 yuan/ton at the beginning of the year and 2450.00 yuan/ton at the end of the year, a decrease of 9.20% for the whole year. The cost in 2023 is generally supported by the formic acid market.
Import and export: According to customs data, the total import volume of formic acid in China from January to December 2023 was 16177 kilograms, a year-on-year decrease of 74.14%. The total export volume of formic acid in China from January to December 2023 was 279981163 kilograms, a year-on-year increase of 24.70%. The export market still provides support for the formic acid market in 2023, and it is expected that the export market support may still exist in 2024.
Comprehensive prediction:
Formic acid is one of the basic organic chemical raw materials, widely used in fields such as pesticides, leather, dyes, pharmaceuticals, and rubber. The demand for formic acid in 2024 may be relatively stable, and the procurement of formic acid in the market may continue to follow the rigid demand. The supply and demand pattern may not change much, and it is expected that the formic acid market will continue to warm up and operate in 2024. More attention still needs to be paid to changes in cost and export orders.
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