According to the commodity market analysis system of Business Society, the domestic 1 # tin ingot market fluctuated in February 2024. The average price in the domestic market was 217060 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month and 217210 yuan/ton at the end of the month, with a monthly increase of 0.07%.
On February 28th, the base metal index was 1164 points, an increase of 2 points from yesterday, a decrease of 27.97% from the highest point in the cycle of 1616 points (2022-03-09), and an increase of 81.31% from the lowest point of 642 points on November 24th, 2015. (Note: The cycle refers to 2011-12-01 present).
On February 28th, the tin commodity index was 110.65, an increase of 0.67 points from yesterday, a decrease of 41.05% from the highest point in the cycle of 187.70 points (2022-03-09), and an increase of 158.17% from the lowest point of 42.86 points on December 9th, 2015. (Note: The cycle refers to 2011-09-01 present).
K-bar chart of commodity prices, using the concept of price trend K-line, reflects the weekly or monthly price fluctuations in the form of a bar chart. Investors can buy and sell based on the changes in the K-bar chart. Red indicates an increase; Green indicates a decline; The height of the K-bar represents the range of fluctuations. The monthly K-bar chart shows significant fluctuations in tin prices. From the weekly K-bar chart, it can be seen that the tin market has experienced more recent declines and less recent gains.
The tin market in February fell before the holiday and then rose, with a range of fluctuations after the holiday. At the beginning of February, the social inventory of tin continued to accumulate, coupled with downstream enterprises basically ending replenishment near the Spring Festival, resulting in sluggish trading in the spot market and dragging down the trend of the futures market. Shanghai tin fell, and on the night of the 7th, due to the impact of the US dollar’s decline, Lunxi rose 1.39%, driving the opening of Shanghai tin to rise on the 7th. The tin market showed a “V” – shaped trend before the holiday. After the holiday, the market has gradually resumed work, but the downstream has still digested pre holiday inventory, resulting in weak fluctuations in the spot market, fewer inquiries entering the market, and relatively stable macro level. The futures market has relatively small fluctuations, and the post holiday market is mainly characterized by range fluctuations.
On the supply side, the progress of RKAB mines in Indonesia is slow, and imports from Wa State are still in the recovery stage. In the near future, another major importing country, Indonesia, will hold presidential elections, and the supply of tin mines remains tight due to the above news. In terms of demand, downstream demand has performed well recently. In January, welding material companies started production higher, and the overall market mentality has improved. After the holiday, downstream related companies have actively resumed work, and the current production has steadily rebounded. By the end of the month, the market holiday atmosphere has gradually faded, but downstream enterprise restocking demand is still low, and it will take time to recover to pre holiday levels. Overall, the upstream and downstream are actively resuming work, and it will still take some time to resume normal production. The tight supply at the mining end has boosted market sentiment, but due to the drag of high domestic inventory, the market’s upward space is limited. As enterprises gradually resume normal production and the market atmosphere will improve to a certain extent, the short-term market trend is mainly stable and volatile
Related data:
According to the latest data released by the World Bureau of Metals Statistics (WBMS), the global refined tin production in December 2023 was 31900 tons, and the consumption was 32200 tons. The overall performance in December was a supply shortage of 0300 tons. The global tin ore production in December 2023 was 29400 tons. In 2023, the global refined tin production was 353900 tons, with a consumption of 344800 tons. The overall performance in 2023 was an oversupply of 9000 tons. The global tin ore production in 2023 is 309700 tons.
On February 6, 2024, the International Trade Commission (ITC) of the United States voted to make a final anti-dumping and negative industrial injury ruling on tin plate (Tin Mill Products) imported from Canada, China, and Germany, as well as a final anti-dumping and negative industrial injury ruling on tin plate imported from China, The final ruling of the US Department of Commerce states that the products involved in dumping and subsidy practices have not caused substantial harm or threatened substantial harm to domestic industries in the United States. According to the negative final ruling of the US International Trade Commission, the US Department of Commerce will not issue anti-dumping and countervailing duty orders on tinplate imported from the aforementioned countries. At the same time, the International Trade Commission of the United States ruled that the dumping margin of the products involved in South Korea could be ignored and voted to terminate the anti-dumping investigation against South Korea.
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