Price trend
Recently, the domestic POM market has been stable and rising, with most spot prices rising. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe, as of March 13th, the mixed price of domestic POM was 13675 yuan/ton, with a price increase or decrease of+1.30% compared to the beginning of the month.
Cause analysis
In terms of raw materials:
Recently, the price of formaldehyde in the Shandong region has slightly increased, and it can be seen from the above chart that the formaldehyde market is mainly characterized by slight fluctuations. The price of raw material methanol is relatively stable, and the cost support is still acceptable. Downstream demand is gradually recovering, and formaldehyde manufacturers are shipping normally. The market has slightly rebounded, and the support for POM is still acceptable.
In terms of supply:
Recently, the operating rate of domestic POM enterprises has been generally high, with an overall load rate of around 89%. However, most companies have low inventory positions and have not experienced any accumulation of inventory. There is an expected increase in POM production in the future, but overall, the impact on supply pressure is limited, and the support for POM spot on the supply side is relatively strong.
In terms of demand:
Recently, the stocking situation of downstream POM enterprises in China has been average, and most of them just need to pick up the goods. In addition, due to the high price of POM, buyers have a certain degree of resistance. Overall, the demand side entry is lagging behind, and the support for POM spot prices is limited.
Future Market Forecast
In the first half of March, the POM market remained stable with some gains. The operating rate of domestic polymerization plants has slightly increased at a high level, and the inventory position of enterprises is relatively low. The supply side pressure has not yet appeared, and the pricing operation of manufacturers tends to be biased towards high prices. Downstream enterprises are limited in purchasing due to high load and POM prices, resulting in delayed stock preparation follow-up. It is expected that the POM market will enter a narrow consolidation market in the future.
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