Last week, the price of # 441 metallic silicon remained stable. As of May 12th, the average price in the domestic metallic silicon market was 13660 yuan/ton, which remained unchanged compared to the previous week. Last week, the industrial silicon market remained stable, and in terms of the spot market, prices for various brands remained strong after the holiday. Although buyers still engaged in price pressure, there is little room for silicon factories to make concessions at the current price. At present, there are relatively few downstream procurement replenishment operations, so there was a release of post holiday replenishment orders last week. However, the sentiment of transaction pressure is still strong; The futures market is showing a trend of rising and falling. Although the improvement in the macro environment had a positive impact on the industrial silicon market at the beginning of last week, the driving factors for the downstream polycrystalline silicon market continue to be insufficient, and the market performance is very weak. Therefore, industrial silicon remained stable last week
The price of 441 # silicon in various regions on the 12th is as follows:
The price range of # 441 metallic silicon in the Huangpu Port area is 13500~13600 yuan/ton, with an average price of 13550 yuan/ton; The price range of # 441 metallic silicon in Tianjin Port area is 13500~13600 yuan/ton, with an average of 13550 yuan/ton; The price range of # 441 metallic silicon in Kunming area is 13600-13700 yuan/ton, with an average price of 13650 yuan/ton; The price range of # 441 metallic silicon in Sichuan region is 13400~13500 yuan/ton, with an average of 13450 yuan/ton; The price range of Shanghai # 441 metallic silicon is 14000-14200 yuan/ton, with an average price of 14100 yuan/ton.
The Factors Influencing the Price of Silicon Metal
In terms of supply:
As of May 11th, the number of silicon metal furnaces in China has reached 324, with an overall start-up rate of 43.4%, an increase of 20 compared to last week. Last week, the number of industrial silicon furnaces opened increased, with more manufacturers in the northwest resuming production. At the same time, manufacturers in Sichuan have also resumed production. As the flood season approaches, the number of furnaces opened in the southwest will further increase, and the overall supply situation will increase.
In terms of inventory:
Last week, the inventory of industrial silicon slightly increased. As of May 10th, the national social inventory of industrial silicon reached a total of 370000 tons, an increase of 6000 tons compared to before the holiday. Among them, the social ordinary warehouse is 107000 tons, an increase of 1000 tons compared to before the holiday, and the social delivery warehouse is 263000 tons (including unregistered warehouse receipts), an increase of 5000 tons compared to before the holiday/ P>
In terms of demand:
Last week, the price of polycrystalline silicon continued to weaken. Against the backdrop of high inventory in silicon material enterprises, there is a strong bearish atmosphere in the market. The upstream supply pressure in the photovoltaic industry chain is gradually increasing, and both upstream silicon materials and silicon wafer enterprises are in a high inventory stage. Currently, prices have shown irrational declines, but there is still a risk of oversupply in the later stage, especially with the relatively sluggish demand for terminal installation. The game between upstream and downstream may become more severe in the later stage, and it is expected that upstream silicon materials and silicon wafers may continue to decline.
Last week, the price of organic silicon rebounded and the price of aluminum alloy stabilized. The domestic organic silicon DMC market price reference is around 13550 yuan/ton. At present, the overall atmosphere in the organic silicon DMC field is mild. After the market gradually recovers, there is a certain wait-and-see sentiment in the downstream. When the market price dropped to a low point in the early stage, some organic silicon DMC factories had relatively good destocking effects. The current overall supply pressure in the market has slightly eased, and the probability of consolidation and stabilization in the future is high. The current quotation for aluminum alloy ADC12 is around 20000 yuan/ton. Aluminum alloy enterprises have been operating steadily recently, but downstream demand remains resilient, with some recovery in the export end.
Future Market Forecast
In summary, on the supply side, silicon factories in the northwest and southwest regions resumed production last week. Although the cost of industrial silicon has slightly decreased and the price of silicon coal has decreased, the profits of silicon factories have been restored. However, the current market trend is weakening, so the overall operating rate has improved but the increment is small, and the overall supply situation has slightly increased; On the demand side, the prices of polycrystalline silicon and organic silicon have declined, but there are signs of bottoming out and stabilizing. Demand has weakened, but the impact on demand has narrowed after the release of bearish sentiment. The increase in social inventory results in a higher total inventory level. The supply and demand side is bearish for silicon prices due to increased supply and decreased demand. The market is under pressure and the futures market is weakening. However, there is a favorable situation on the cost side and support is temporarily stable. It is expected that industrial silicon will bottom out and stabilize this week.
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