The total import volume of MIBK in the first quarter of 2024 was 4320 tons, a year-on-year increase of -68% and a month on month decrease of -39%. In the first quarter, domestic production increased and MIBK imports showed a downward trend.
Firstly, the import volume will increase significantly in 2023. In December 2022, due to the long-term shutdown of large domestic facilities, the losses were severe, and the supply side severely contracted. In the fourth quarter, the market price rose from 10400 yuan/ton to 21000 yuan/ton in January 2023, an increase of over 100%. This also led to a large influx of imported goods, and domestic trading companies were importing MIBK to make up for the market gap. In February and March 2023, foreign MIBK concentrated in ports, resulting in a sharp increase in import volume in the first quarter of 2023. However, at the same time, with the increase in spot supply and weak demand, the domestic MIBK market price negotiations have mostly shown a downward trend.
Secondly, overseas device maintenance will be carried out in the first quarter of 2024. The main sources of imported MIBK from China come from Japan and South Korea, but from late March to early April 2024, both the Mitsui MIBK plant in Japan and the Jinhu MIBK plant in South Korea were shut down for maintenance, which also affected the import volume of MIBK from China in the first quarter of 2024. According to customs data, in the first quarter of 2024, China’s MIBK imports mainly came from South Africa, Mexico, and Japan, totaling 4000 tons, accounting for 95% of the total imports in the first quarter.
Business Society predicts that imported resources are expected to increase in the second quarter. From a supply perspective, the MIBK facilities in Mitsui, Japan and Jinhu, South Korea restarted in the second quarter. Currently, the MIBK market prices in China are at a high level in the second quarter, and there is room for arbitrage. Therefore, the import volume is expected to increase. From the perspective of market prices, the supply in the domestic market has increased, but downstream industries in the demand side have turned into a off-season in summer. Downstream demand is worrying in June, and Business Society expects a downward trend in market prices. As market demand contracts and prices decline, import sources will also decrease. Therefore, the total import volume in the second quarter is expected to increase, but the import volume in the third quarter may decline again.
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