1、 Price trend
According to the commodity market analysis system of Shengyishe, the price of aniline fell first and then rose this month. At the beginning of the month, the price began to decline, and in the middle of the month, the price was relatively stable. After mid to late October, the price rebounded slightly, and at the end of the month, the price was relatively stable. On May 1st, the market price of aniline was 12292 yuan/ton; On May 31st, the price was 12145 yuan/ton. The average price of aniline this month decreased by 1.19% compared to the beginning of the month and increased by 11.29% compared to the same period last year.
2、 Analysis and Review
In terms of raw materials, the overall pure benzene market has been on the rise this month. 1、 Crude oil has seen a broad decline, but the cost side is insufficient. 2、 The arbitrage window of Asia US has closed, and the domestic price of pure benzene in China is low, resulting in a low import volume of pure benzene in May. And the overall supply of pure benzene in the market is insufficient. 3、 The downstream profitability is poor, and the price of styrene is in an upward trend, with a 1.53% increase compared to the beginning of the month. At the beginning of the month, the price of pure benzene was 8672 yuan/ton; At the end of the month, the price was 9120 yuan/ton, with a 5.16% increase compared to the beginning of the month and a 39.02% increase compared to the same period last year.
Nitric acid: The price of nitric acid rose first and then fell this month, with a slight increase before mid month and a slight decrease after mid month. At the beginning of the month, the price of nitric acid in East China was 1856 yuan/ton, and at the end of the month, it was 1830 yuan/ton. The price decreased by 1.4% compared to the beginning of the month and 9.98% compared to the same period last year.
In May of this year, the price of aniline increased slightly, with a slight decrease before mid month and a slight increase after mid month. The price remained relatively stable towards the end of the month.
3、 Future Market Forecast
At present, the inventory of aniline factories is low, with no shipping pressure, and there is not much room for short-term decline. In addition, pure benzene continues to be relatively strong, which may bring upward momentum to aniline. It is expected that domestic aniline will remain stable and relatively strong in the next cycle.
Pure benzene: Yesterday, news of the East China factory speculating on the Lai plant continued to drive up prices, while Shandong Refinery reported an increase in prices. After the price increase, the market followed up normally, but due to low inventory levels in multiple factories, actual transactions fell short of expectations. The night trading of pure benzene reached around 9380 yuan/ton, and due to the completion of delivery in May, it is expected that there is a high possibility of consolidation in the market today.
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