According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, from June 24th to July 1st, the domestic market price of butadiene increased from 13625 yuan/ton to 13700 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 0.55% during the cycle. The price of butadiene in the market fluctuated narrowly this week, with a weak trend in the East China region. This is mainly due to the weak trend in the downstream rubber industry. Affected by weak demand, prices in the East China region have weakened. Currently, the self pickup price in the East China region is at 13100 yuan/ton, a decrease of about 100 yuan/ton from last week. There are still some essential purchases in the downstream of Shandong region this week, but the overall transaction atmosphere is also weak, with market prices at 13600 yuan/ton, basically unchanged.
Cost side: During this cycle, crude oil prices have risen. On the one hand, the tense geopolitical situation has resurfaced supply risks, and the supply and demand situation is favorable for the oil market. On the other hand, the Chinese economy continues to rebound and improve, coupled with the arrival of the peak oil consumption season in North America, strongly supporting oil prices. As of June 28th, international crude oil futures closed lower. The settlement price of the main WTI crude oil futures contract in the United States was $81.54 per barrel, a decrease of $0.20 or 0.2%. The settlement price of the Brent crude oil futures main contract was reported at $85.00 per barrel, a decrease of $0.26 or 0.3%.
Supply side: The listed price of butadiene for various sales companies of Sinopec remains stable at 13800 yuan/ton. Fujian United and Zhejiang Petrochemical Unit 2 have not been restarted, and Dushanzi Petrochemical has shut down for maintenance. The comprehensive operating rate in China has not changed much this week, and the supply of butadiene is relatively stable.
Demand side: The downstream synthetic rubber market continued to weaken this week, but overall rigid demand support still exists. With the high volatility of raw material butadiene prices, some downstream entered the market for procurement, but overall transactions were biased towards rigid demand, resulting in insufficient market support and weak operation of the butadiene market.
On Friday, June 28th, the external market of butadiene remained mostly stable, with South Korea FOB trading at $1545-1555 per ton, unchanged; China CFR report 1575-1585 USD/ton, unchanged; European butadiene FOB Rotterdam closed at $1200-1210 per ton, with an increase of $30 per ton; FD Northwest Europe closed at 1075-1085 euros/ton, unchanged.
Market forecast: The overall supply of butadiene is expected to remain stable this week, with some cargo arriving at ports in the future. The market expects a slightly loose supply in the future. In terms of demand, downstream synthetic rubber enterprises have had weak demand recently, which has led to insufficient market support and an overall weak atmosphere in the spot market. Overall, the supply and demand side of the butadiene market is relatively weak, but the external prices remain strong, which provides some support for the market atmosphere. Based on the above, butadiene analysts from Business Society predict that the domestic butadiene market will maintain a high and volatile trend in the short term, with a focus on the arrival of cargo at ports in the future.
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