1、 Price trend
According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of July 17th, the average quotation price of domestic high-quality DMF enterprises was 4000 yuan/ton. From early July 1st to 17th, the overall DMF price fell by 5.83%, with a decline of about 300 yuan/ton. Currently, the DMF price is at its lowest level in three years. In July, we entered the traditional off-season, with slow shipments from manufacturers, sustained high inventory levels, increased inventory pressure, low overall market operating rates, and weak digestion of the DMF market. We are observing the operation.
2、 Cause analysis
In terms of cost, the main upstream product of DMF, liquid ammonia, showed a significant decline in early July. The market transaction atmosphere was weak, and the trading atmosphere did not improve. The overall market price continued to consolidate weakly, with a small amount of shipments being the main focus. The downstream market demand was sluggish, and the mentality of first-time buyers was pessimistic and cautious. Ammonia companies adjusted prices according to their own situation. Currently, the overall market supply is relatively sufficient, and the operating rate is running steadily. It is expected to mainly fluctuate in the short term.
In terms of demand, downstream agricultural demand is in the traditional off-season, with weak demand and a sluggish market transaction atmosphere. Terminal demand continues to be weak, making it difficult for enterprises to stock up. The overall market demand is limited, and stagnant operation is the main trend. Manufacturers have lowered prices and shipped goods to alleviate the pressure of high inventory. Currently, the industry’s profitability is not optimistic, and some enterprises have stopped production and production to cope with the current market situation.
3、 Future forecast
DMF analysts from Shengyi Society believe that the DMF market has been operating with narrow fluctuations recently, and there is still a risk of further price decline. The mentality of industry players is somewhat average, mainly focusing on cautious procurement for essential needs. It is expected that DMF prices will remain around 4000 yuan/ton in the short term.
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