1、 Price trend
According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of July 31st, the reference average price of the domestic urea market was 2321 yuan/ton, which is 6.60% lower than the reference average price of 2485 yuan/ton on July 1st.
2、 Market analysis
market conditions
In July, the domestic urea market prices fell weakly, but rebounded at the end of the month. As of July 31st, the ex factory price of urea in Shandong region is around 2130-2150 yuan/ton, in Hebei region it is around 2150 yuan/ton, and in Henan region it is around 2150 yuan/ton.
According to the weekly K-bar chart from May 6, 2024 to July 22, 2024, it can be seen that the domestic ammonium sulfate cycle is fluctuating. There was a significant decline in July, with the largest drop being -2.62% in the week of July 15th.
Supply and demand situation
In terms of supply, the urea market currently has a relatively sufficient supply, with oversupply being the main factor. In terms of demand, agricultural demand maintains essential procurement, while industrial demand is low. The operating rate and market of downstream compound fertilizers remain stable, and the demand for urea remains stable, with many low-priced transactions. At the end of the month, the market trading direction was good, and the urea market slightly rebounded.
3、 Future forecast
The urea analyst from Shengyi Society believes that the urea market trend has been improving recently, with an increase in market inquiries and an improved trading atmosphere. But downstream demand is still relatively low, waiting for the release of terminal demand. Expected short-term consolidation of domestic urea market prices.
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