1、 Price trend
According to the commodity analysis system of Shengyi Society, the price of soda ash continued to decline in July. At the beginning of the month, the average market price of light soda ash was 1996 yuan/ton, and at the end of the month, the average market price was around 1904 yuan/ton, a decrease of 4.61% and an increase of 6.63% compared to the same period last year. On July 31, the light soda ash commodity index was 97.64, unchanged from yesterday, a decrease of 48.37% from the cycle’s highest point of 189.10 points (2021-11-07), and an increase of 54.62% from the lowest point of 63.15 points on November 18, 2015. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from September 1, 2011 to present)
2、 Market analysis
According to the commodity analysis system of Shengyi Society, the price of soda ash has continued to decline this month. On the supply side, the operating rate of soda ash remains high, the market inventory is sufficient, the production and sales of enterprises are average, and inventory continues to accumulate; On the demand side, the terminal market continues to be weak, and downstream purchases are mostly following up on demand. The market trading atmosphere is poor, and under the supply-demand game, the price of soda ash is weakly declining. As of July 31, 2024, the price of soda ash in East China has continued to decline, with the mainstream market price of light soda ash being around 1750-2000 yuan/ton. The price of soda ash in Central China is weakly stable, with the mainstream market price of light soda ash being around 1700-1850 yuan/ton.
On the demand side: According to the commodity analysis system of Shengyi Society, glass prices have continued to decline this month, with an average market price of 19.05 yuan/square meter at the beginning of the month and 17.24 yuan/square meter at the end of the month, a decrease of 9.50%. The spot prices in the glass market continue to be weak, downstream demand for essential purchases is weak, market demand is weak, on-site trading is poor, and the price market is weak and falling.
According to the price monitoring of Shengyi Society, in the 30th week of 2024 (7.22-7.26), there was a total of 1 commodity that rose, 3 commodities that fell, and 2 commodities with zero rise and fall in the chlor alkali industry price list. The main commodities experiencing an increase are: calcium carbide (0.62%); The main commodities experiencing a decline are baking soda (-2.10%), PVC (-0.80%), and caustic soda (-0.25%). The average increase or decrease this week is -0.42%.
Market forecast: According to the commodity analysis system of Shengyi Society, the price of light soda ash has been weak and stable in the near future, and the spot alkali plant equipment is operating normally, with sufficient supply of goods. The downstream market continues to be weak, with sluggish procurement entering the market and multidimensional demand replenishment. The inventory of soda ash has generally decreased, and it is expected that soda ash will consolidate weakly in the later stage, depending on downstream market demand.
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