According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of August 6th, the quoted price of battery grade lithium carbonate was 87600 yuan/ton, a decrease of 24% from the same period in May when it was 116200 yuan/ton, and a decrease of 68.83% from the same period last year; The quotation for industrial grade lithium carbonate is 85000 yuan/ton, a decrease of 67.137% compared to the same period last year.
The continuous decline in the price of lithium carbonate in the past four months means that the situation of oversupply is becoming increasingly severe. The estimated total supply of lithium carbonate in July is 84455 tons, with a total demand of 67209 tons and a supply-demand gap of 17246 tons.
Supply side: 2024 is the period of concentrated release of global lithium mineral resources. Recently, the latest auction price of Australian mines was less than $760/ton, which translates to a price of around 73000-75000 yuan/ton for lithium carbonate, lowering market expectations for the price of lithium carbonate. Despite the continuous decline in lithium ore prices, lithium salt companies have not engaged in large-scale production cuts or shutdowns. It is expected that the monthly production of lithium carbonate will maintain a positive growth trend, and the pressure of oversupply will continue to intensify.
Demand side: The production schedule of battery factories in August is basically the same as that in July, with limited demand increment. But the pressure on battery inventory has slowed down, which will have a certain boost to the demand for lithium carbonate.
Business Society’s lithium carbonate data analyst believes that external mining and low-grade lithium extraction enterprises will gradually cease production as the degree of cost inversion deepens, but the impact on the overall supply scale may be limited, and the situation of overcapacity is difficult to improve in the short term. The price of lithium carbonate will still further decline.
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