This week (September 2-6, 2024), the cost trend of upstream raw material dissolution slurry for adhesive short fibers is relatively firm, and cost support still exists; The manufacturer’s inventory is not high; Downstream cotton yarn is following up as needed, approaching a new round of signing nodes. Downstream manufacturers are gradually inquiring about orders and prices. With the interweaving of information on the market, there is a certain confidence in the “Golden Nine”, and manufacturers are gradually raising prices by 100-200 yuan/ton. The overall operation of adhesive short fiber is relatively strong, and the market center of gravity has shifted upward.
According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the price of viscose staple fiber has slightly increased this week (September 2-6, 2024). As of September 6th, the domestic factory price for 1.2D * 38mm adhesive short fiber is 13640 yuan/ton, an increase of 140 yuan/ton from last week, with a weekly increase of 1.04%.
Cost side support still exists
The upstream raw material end main material dissolution slurry market is strong and stable. As of now, the price of domestic dissolution slurry is around 7800 yuan/ton, the price of external broad-leaved slurry is around 960 US dollars/ton, and the price of coniferous slurry is around 1040 US dollars/ton. The price trend of auxiliary materials in the market varies. As of September 6th, the average price of 32% liquid caustic soda in the domestic market was 886.51 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.28% compared to the beginning of the month; The average market price of 98% acid is 358 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5.79% compared to the beginning of the month. Overall, the upstream main raw material dissolution slurry market remains strong and stable, the sulfuric acid market price continues to decline, the liquid alkali market price has risen narrowly, and the cost side of the adhesive short fiber market still has positive support.
Stable supply, low inventory
The supply of adhesive short fiber industry is at a high level, and most manufacturers have stable equipment operation. The on-site operating rate is at a high level, and the current daily operating rate of the industry is around 84.79%. The early parking and maintenance equipment in Xinjiang has not been restarted yet, and the overall market supply is high. The inventory levels of various adhesive short fiber manufacturers are low, and the on-site supply is slightly tight. The supply side provides some upward momentum for the market.
The demand has not shown significant improvement
Although it has entered the traditional peak season for textile production in September, there is no obvious sign of improvement in the textile terminal market. Downstream yarn manufacturers have insufficient new orders, making it difficult to increase their enthusiasm for raw material procurement. Manufacturers are holding on to signing orders for essential needs, and the new round of orders on site is expected to take about a month. The recovery of demand is not as expected.
Downstream cotton yarn market
This week, the price of cotton yarn has slightly increased with the rise of viscose staple fiber. As of September 6th, the average ex factory price of human cotton yarn (30S, ring spun, first-class) was 17625 yuan/ton, an increase of 250 yuan/ton from last week, with a weekly increase of 1.44%.
Future forecast
The upstream main raw material market price of viscose staple fiber may remain high, and the supply in the market is relatively tight. However, the new round of signing orders in the downstream market has basically ended, and the peak season has arrived. There is an expectation of an increase in the operating rate of human cotton yarn factories, which will drive the consumption of viscose staple fiber. Therefore, it is expected that the demand for viscose staple fiber may increase in the later stage, but it is difficult for the demand side to improve significantly in the short term. Viscose staple fiber manufacturers mainly deliver orders, and business analysts predict that the focus of the domestic viscose staple fiber market will remain stable in the short term, with little price fluctuation. The price is expected to be in the range of 13600-13700 yuan/ton.
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